Money Management Betting System with winning rate just 50%.

[koudour]

Please can you tell me your opinion about this strategy? The most experience of you is sure that have something to share with me. I have started with a similar one from 60€ and made 930€ after some months of exercising. This system is based on statistics. I don't have to bother about the teams. The target is to win the number of bets needed, depending on the strategy I follow. And the choices I make give the profitable results. What do I mean? The odds that a bookmaker gives for example for the home win of a team, is relevant to the possibilities of the win to be achieved. For example: under of 1.45 succeed almost 63% , under of 1.55 succeed almost average 56%, over of 1.50 succeed 54% , over of 1.40 succeed almost average 62% etc. All these successful bets show to me that if I bet 100 times I may win from 54 to 63 of them if I choose odds like that. We all know that if I make flat betting, -just bet a specific amount of money to each bet- I will lose my money. But if I follow some strategies to take advantage of the number of wins I make - more than the losses- then I will make profit. So, I want the possibilities to verify my choices. And why over - under? Some leagues and some teams are made for playing football we all want. For example, some teams in Holland Eredivisie play to score as much goals they can. It’s their mentality. If a team knows how to score, then scores. If a team knows how to keep a result, then always try to keep it. This is what they know to do. This rule helps to raise the percentage of success that the odds by themselves try to verify. If I can play 100 games and win 60 of them then I have profit for sure. Let’s move to the system This system is designed to give me a standard profit after every bet.To follow this strategy I need a win rate of 50+ % of the total number of bets. So I have to choose odds that in the long run give me more than 50% success. I bet on sports over-under between 1.40 - 1.70 at most, unless the possibilities of the result are better and also giving a high odd more than 1.70. Let me built a random scenario which will give me at the end a 50% success. Start 200€ Always Target Win 5€ Stable Odd 1.57 I have created a software at my website called "MyBettingManager" that manages and records my bets, and using a built in calculator proposes my next bet. Below is the way the next bet is calculated. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Next Bet = (Target Win + Previous Losts )/(Odd -1) Next Bet = (5€ 0€)/(1.57-1) = 8.77€ Bet 8.77€. I lose. Total Bank 200€ - 8.77€ = 191.23€ ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Next Bet = (Target Win + Previous Losts)/(Odd -1) Next Bet = (5€ + 8.77€)/(1.57-1) = 24,16€ Bet 24.16€. I win. 37.93€. Real profit 37.93€ - 24,16€ = 13.77€ Total Bank 191.23€ + 13.77€ = 205€ As you see with 50% success I earned my first target and all the previous losts. Now I start from the beginning. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bet 8.77€. I win. 5€ Total Bank 205€ + 5€ = 210€ Now I start from the beginning again. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bet 8.77€. I lose. Total Bank 210€ - 8.77€ = 201.23€ I write my losts. 8.77€. Calculate the next. Next Bet = (Target Win + Previous Losts)/(Odd -1) Next Bet = (5€ + 8.77€)/(1.57-1) = 24,16€ -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bet 24.16€. I lose. Total Bank 201.23€ - 24.16€ = 177,07€ I write besides my new losts 8.77€ 24.16€ Now I’ve lost twice. But in the next calculation I will not include all the previous losts. Just the previous one. (24.16€) That is because my bets are going to become too high and I don't want to raise the risk. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bet 51.16€. I win. 80.32€. Real profit 80.32 - 51.16 = 29.16€ Previous 24.16€ + my target unit 5€. Total Bank 177.07€ + 29.16€ = 206.23€ I erase the last losts 8.77€ 24.16€ Calculate the next, including the losts I didn't win back. (8.77€) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bet 24.16€. I lose. Total Bank 206.23€ - 24,16€ = 182.07€ I write besides again my new losts 8.77€ 24.16€ Calculate the next, including only the last losts. (24.16€) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bet 51.16€. I win. 80.32€. Real profit 80.32 - 51.16 = 29.16€ Previous 24.16€ + my target unit 5€. Total Bank 182.07€ + 29.16€ = 211.23€ I erase the last losts 8.77€ 24.16€ Calculate the next, including the losts that left. (8.77€) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bet 24.16€. I win. 37.93€. Real profit 37.93€ - 24,16€ = 13.77€ Total Bank 211.23€ + 13.77€ = 225€ I erase the last losts 8.77€ And I start from the beginning. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- You see that in the previous 6 bets I had 50% success. But I won every unit of 5€ per winning bet and I took back all my previous losts. Now I have 225€ and I’ve started with 200€. I earned 5€ for every winning bet. And raise my account 12.5%. Depending on the account, I choose my unit per winning bet. With 200€ my target was 2€ per winning bet. Remember that I may have better win percentage than 50%. The odds which verify the possibilities by themselves, will help me to succeed. I know I may have a losing streak. But when I have a losing streak and the stake become too high,I split my losts to parts and try to win the parts. This is going to low the stakes. For example : I write besides my new losts 8.77€ 24.16€ I can make it 8.77€ 8.06€ 8.06€ 8.04€ Now I try to take back the last lost (8.04) I know that I will also have a winning streak too. My target is to raise my account at least 30% each month. For example: Account 1000€ 7/2014 1300€ 8/2014 1690€ 9/2014 2197€ 10/2014 2856€ 11/2014 3713€ 12/2014 4827€ 1/2015 6275€ 2/2015 8157€ 3/2015 10605€ 4/2015 13786€ 5/2015 17922€ 6/2015 23298€ Only 30% raise my account. As I place all my money to an odd 1.30 And This is only with a winning rate of 50%. The odds will give me better results. Because these are the possibilities. I can also take some tipsters from some professionals who are reading the teams all day and I can take a 65% to 70% winning success at these odds. What do you say about it?

[froment]

Re: Money Management Betting System with winning rate just 50%. Hi, koudour, :welcome to the forum, hope you'll enjoy it! :) At the first sight, your strategy and logic sounds both interesting and impossible - as they say, if something is too good to be true, it probably is.

This system is based on statistics. I don't have to bother about the teams.

Did I understand it well, you don't care who plays, you just check if the odds are inside range 1.40-1.70, and that's bet for you? If it was possible, bookmakers would have ceased to exist. :) You are right that your system would have produced losses with flat stakes. And it's usually said that if system doesn't work with level stakes, it will not work with any stakes, there is no staking system that can turn losing system into a winning one. However, you say:

I have started with a similar one from 60€ and made 930€ after some months of exercising.

So, despite the theory says that you cannot win, you have proven otherwise in your own practice; either you've been on a winning streak that may end any moment, either you found a good selection system, but it seems to work either way. So why should you bother with theory at all? Just keep on betting as you have done untill now, and that's good for you - if your system ain't broke, don't try to fix it! As for your system, I think it will have a common problem of any loss recovery system: long losing runs. In your example, somehow, you did not lose more than 2 times in a row from your initial bank, so losses you needed to recover were only 8.77 + 24.16, and maximum stake 51.16. However, if you lost three times in a row (so loss to recover would be 8.77 + 24.16 + 51.16), which is not only possible, but simply inevitable, next stake would be 98.53 units. That means exposure of almost your entire bank (182.62 units out of 200 units), so if that fourth bet lost, your bank would have been gone. Now, you say that if losses increased, you would decrease part of losses to recover, to preserve your bank, but that means that you would need a long way to recover - if you divide losses into 8 units each time, you would need 10 winning bets to recover loss from 3 losing picks in a row, and 22 winning bets to recover loss from 4 losing bets in a row.

My target is to raise my account at least 30% each month.

In my opinion, any strict limitation / target is not good. You should place a bet because there is a good opportunity, not because you need another bet to reach the target. It seems this is in line with what you said earlier, "This system is based on statistics. I don't have to bother about the teams.", but it just doesn't look right to me. If there is a good opportunity, you should bet even if your target has already been reached; if there is no good opportunity (for example, poor betting offer, sometimes there are days when there is almost no matches), you should not bet just for the sake of target. Take care about each bet, and then targets will care about themselves.

I can also take some tipsters from some professionals who are reading the teams all day and I can take a 65% to 70% winning success at these odds.

My opinion is that "professionals" would have placed those bet themselves if they were so good, they would not bother to sell them! ;) If I was to start betting now, I don't think I would follow your plan; but once again, if the system works for you, please don't let me discourage you, just keep on going! :ok It would be nice if you update us about progress, or even keep track of your bets in here! :ok