BBOTD - Wednesday 25th June

[robertob]

19.30 Naas: Fastnet Mist E/W @ 33/1 Paddy Power This Oaks trial looks quite poor and open enough I think. The O'Brien favourite might have the strongest form to offer, but that doesn't mean Palace is a sure thing here. Dermot Weld's filly did quite well to win a maiden recently, clearly improving for the new trip, but she looks far from exciting either. I do like much more the two David Wachman fillies. But while I do believe Circling's recent 3rd behind Venus de Milo might be good enough form to win this, I feel his second choice, Fastnet Mist is way overpriced and can potentially cause and upset. Obviously one has to take note that Wayne Lordan jumped ship and rides Circling here, after he sat on board of Fastnet Mist in all her starts, but this makes perfectly sense, considering the former ones decent recent run in a Cork Group 3, while Fastnet Mist is a two times raced maiden. However there are things that make me believe this filly has a chance to run a fine race. First two starts where fair enough, particularly on her most recent and only 2nd career start, she finished with loads of promise the race - beating tomorrows 2nd favourite, Carla Bianca, easily that day - even though that came over 1m. Fastnet Mist will step up to 10f now, first try or her over this trip, but that might be what makes her competitive jumping straight into Listed class now. Her sire can get decent horses over all sorts of trips, while there is plenty of stamina on dam side, which clearly points to 10-12f in fact. So on balance the 10f trip should be perfectly fine, which is also by the way she finished at Naas, when she seemed to be rather beaten for speed than anything else, and she was staying on strongly indeed.

[calculus]

Re: BBOTD - Wednesday 25th June 3:35 Carlisle - Spin Artist (11/1 BetVictor) 1pt Win I am fairly sure that a lot of Mark Johnston's horses have been under a cloud for much of this season but it looks like they are beginning to turn a corner now and there could be a few well handicapped individuals as a result. On paper Spin Artist certainly looks potentially well in, as he is due to go up 4lbs in the future and he was rated as high as 87 after winning his first two career starts last year and is now rated a full 18lbs below that mark. He has tumbled down the weights with good reason as he has been badly out of sorts but his last two runs have been much more like it - he probably ran a bit better than the result suggests two starts ago at Lingfield after being trapped wide and possibly finding 10 furlongs a stretch of his stamina, last time out he took another step back in the right direction when running well to finish second despite weakness in the market and the winner of that race has run well under a penalty since. I think this trip over a testing course should be particularly suitable and I am quite surprised he is as big as 11/1.