Betting System ?

[erhaab1965]

I love following horse racing and have an interest in betting systems. However my current circumstances does not allow me to follow the sport as vigorously as in the past. In the past couple of years I have seen less than 5% of all races and most of them are the big races via replays or TV highlights. One system I have had in my head is a laying system. Heres the basics: Lay most of Young Josephs rides, just excluding the ones who have a very good chance , but that doesn't neccesarily include omitting the 1/3 , 2/7 shots. HE is an up and coming jockey who is very competant , however I have noticed that many of his rides are unjustifiably short. If you lay them and he does actually win , you are saving money because the true odds may have been bigger and you should have lost more. If you look at his win ratio , its actually up there with many other top jockeys , however given the short prices of some of his mounts he makes a level stakes loss over the season. It would be interesting to see see his level stakes profit/loss for mounts priced at 2/1 or less and also for odds on shots. Theres a guy in my local betting shop who regularly bets £1000+ on short priced favorites , he calls backing a 1/4 shot " buying money" , but many times in the last few years he has done his dough on Young Joseph , I think he's learnt his lesson and given up on him. Anyway back to the system. I'd have a bank of £1000 or 100 points (£10 each) Horses over 10/1.............No lay 5/1 to 10/1....................1 Point 2/1 to 5/1......................2 Points Evens to 2/1...................3 Points 1/2 to Evens ..................4 poiints 1/2 or lower....................5 Points I don't have time to develop my system or trail it , however I do think that over time it will make profit. The same can be applied for other jockeys at the top of the tables such as AP McCoy and R Walsh , they have big strike rates but their mounts are artificially shorter than the true odds of winning.

[mowgli77]

Re: Betting System ?

Lay most of Young Josephs rides, just excluding the ones who have a very good chance , but that doesn't neccesarily include omitting the 1/3 , 2/7 shots.

How do you filter that? It sounds a bit subjective, we'd all love to lay all those except the ones that have a good chance. Maybe just lay all his rides under 2-1 or something like that. A good jockey always influences a price and you're right about true odds but it's picking the right ones to back or avoid and is easier said than done. I'd bet the fella in the bookies backing long odds on chances is soon skint, quickest way to the poor house unless you have an exceptional strike rate and a huge bank. Look at the thread Wizzkid Walter ran on here, huge win % but all short prices and no profit. If you back 10 losers at odds of 1-2 how do you expect to turn around that deficit backing at those prices?