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NBA Picks, Sunday

sani
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sani

sani

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Detroit over Miami @2.63 (www.ladbrokes.com) I'm writing this preview supposing Shaq WILL play tonight. Atleast that's what this line suggest. Pistons will want to take this one more than Miami will. They want to continue their run and then to extend it to the playoffs. And this run they are on is very impressive. Five double-digit wins in a row, 4-0 since Larry Brown returned. They finally remind us of last year's Pistons, and i believe they can make a lot of noise this spring as well. If Shaquille plays, it boosts Miami's chances to win tonight, but still, Pistons can play against 'Diesel'. Remember the Finals last year? They have one of the best starting lineups ever, and probably the best defensive starting unit in history. Brown's defensive mindset definitely helps. Perhaps the best way to explain how good these Pistons actually are is to ask yourself who their MVP is this season. Is it Chauncey 'Mr Clutch' Billups, last year Finals MVP? Or their top scorer, Richard Hamilton? Probable winner of Most Improved Award, Tayshaun Prince? Rasheed? Minister of Defense, Big Ben Wallace? It's really impossible to tell, and that is exactly what this team's biggest quality is. You just can't tell who it will be that's going to beat you. You know how they'll do it, but you can't stop it. Miami is different, slow down Shaq and/or Wade, and you did a lot of damage already. And, while stopping (or slowing down) either Shaq or Wade is not an easy task, if Detroit can't do it, who can? They already made Shaq have one divorce (with Kobe), maybe not this year, but if anything can end Batman and Robin (Shaq-Wade) honeymoon, it's going to be Detroit Pistons. Key Factor: Even with Shaq in, there is a lot of value in this bet, without him it's a no brainer with this moneyline. TIPOFF TIME: 19:00 (CET)

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sani

sani

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Re: NBA Picks, Sunday Yeah they gave us a scare in 4th, but their lead already was huge, so who can blame them? I know a lot of you might not agree, but this was the best bet i've ever seen, Shaq was doubtfull and the moneyline was 2.63 and it all pointed to the fact he will be out. When they officially anounced he won't play it dropped big time.

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rowdy

rowdy

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Re: NBA Picks, Sunday Anyone else tempted by the $5.20 on offer for SA?? 136 -134 SA in Double OT:D With GS playing the way they are plus the surge in crowd support maybe its about right but cant help thinking that thats a huge price for a good SA team trying to top the west, even without Duncan. Anyone else on it?? Taking Memphis -12.5 v Bobcats. The rest of Memphis' schedule is very tough from now on. Should be very keen to win this comfortably over Bobcats who have lost there last 7 I think. 12.5 is a lot so Medium stakes. Memphis 102 - 95:(

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oldbigead

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Re: NBA Picks, Sunday Yeah i wanted to bet the 80-1 on the Nuggets last week. I'd love to bet the Nuggets at 80-1. Unfortunately totesport won't let me bet with them. It's this sort of occurance that makes me mad with the bookies. Why shouldn't i be able to bet the 80-1 like the rest of you guys. It's bullshit. I really hope they don't win otherwise i'll be sick as a parrot. BTW i also bet the Heat and without Shaq the 2.63 really was one of the bets of the season. However if Shaq had played and was anything like 100% in this game i don't think that 2.63 would've been a great bet.

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oldbigead

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Re: NBA Picks, Sunday The 50-1 is still kind of tempting. I don't think they'll actually win the championship but they are clearly one of the dark horses. Outside of the big four they proably have the best chance. It's just difficult to make a bet when you know that everyonelse could get 80-1. I think i'll leave it and just hope that the Spurs can get it together in time for the playoffs. (i think my 500-1 T Wolves bet is already down the pan). As for the Shaq thing is see that it was a good bet if you'd factored in that he wasn't likely to play ahead of the official announcement. My point was that simply that in my opinion if Shaq plays for Miami at home agianst Detroit then i don't think 2.63 is a good bet. If they paly in the conference finals with the first game at Miami i can guarantee you that the spread will be higher than 2.5 or 3 points and that the moneyline will be a little higher than 2.63. Thats all i was saying. In terms of yesterdays game with Shaq out i think the line WAS one of the bets of the season.

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sani

sani

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Re: NBA Picks, Sunday Yes, my opinion was that right now Pistons can easily beat anyone with the way they're playing. And yes i did suggest Shaq might not play, even though the line was set so high suggesting he will. That's why i think it was a great pick. Don't get me wrong, but it has pretty much been your 'points' and 'opinions' vs. eveyone elses (i guess mostly mine) picks. Btw. why didn't you pick Miami yesterday if you're so confident? You could've said 'if Shaq plays i pick Miami to win' yesterday, but no, you're saying that today. Speaking of fences and splinters. Atleast we agree on Denver.

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kiko1983

kiko1983

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Re: NBA Picks, Sunday I dont know what happened - logged into bookies to place my Detroit winnings on a tennis match and turns out my bet wasnt placed in the first place?? Would it maybe have been voided because i got on it when Stan James messed up and got the prices the wrong way round?

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oldbigead

oldbigead

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Re: NBA Picks, Sunday

Yes' date=' my opinion was that right now Pistons can easily beat anyone with the way they're playing. And yes i did suggest Shaq might not play, even though the line was set so high suggesting he will. That's why i think it was a great pick. Don't get me wrong, but it has pretty much been your 'points' and 'opinions' vs. eveyone elses (i guess mostly mine) picks. Btw. why didn't you pick Miami yesterday if you're so confident? You could've said 'if Shaq plays i pick Miami to win' yesterday, but no, you're saying that today. Speaking of fences and splinters. Atleast we agree on Denver.[/quote'] I didn't pick Miami as i didn't think Shaq would play. If i'd have thought he'd play i'd probably have picked Miami -2.5/3. As at this point i would think the line should be about Miami -5.5. As he didn't play i backed Detroit straight up at 2.2 this at this point is also a great bet. You see what i'm saying? they're both good bets depending on the Shaq situation. I don't think the -2.5/3 lines suggested Shaq would play, i think they suggested he MIGHT play. If he'd have been probable the line would not have been -2.5/3, it would have been at least 5. Once again mate I'm not criticising you. If you look i agree with you as much as i disagree with you. But i do like a good dicussion/debate, so when you put put something up i don't agree with i tell you why i don't agree and give my reasons. Sometimes you'll be right and sometimes i'll be right, but its good to have have a debate...it might make both of us think of something we've missed or not considered. You clearly know your basketball and as such i always consider your opinions. No disrespect but alot of the guys on the basketball thread don't know much about basketball and are all too keen to blindly follow. I do know my basketball inside out and as such like to discuss with others who clearly know the game. Thats why i'll discuss your points more than others; as i want to get a useful consensus. Take it as a compliment mate not an insult. :D .
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sani

sani

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Re: NBA Picks, Sunday Ok i see your point, and realise you meant no harm (neither did i), but i think this forum is for picking NBA games, not for NBA chit-chat. And i hope you won't get me wrong with this. About Miami-Detroit, Ladbrokes were the only one who gave the moneyline that early, before anything about Shaq was official (although i did expect him not to play). And the fact that only one bookie (it literally was just Ladbrokes) gave the line strongly suggested that he wouldn't play. I was just quick enough to notice that before the line started dropping. And on 'sometimes you'll be right and sometimes i'll be right', well we can never tell who is right, can we? It's just that sometimes you'll agree with me and sometimes you won't. One more thing, and i'm saying this in a very friendly tone. Just pick some games, i'd like to see your picks, i really would.

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oldbigead

oldbigead

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Re: NBA Picks, Sunday I'm not really much of a picks guy Sani. I tend to think that the lines are correct within a point in at least 95% of the games. I tend to bet rather than pick and this only happens when big injury news is missed or an important guy scrathes late. As such i only bet about 50 times a season(maybe twice a week). I'll put up picks everyday if you want...and they will be informed picks, but even at this point i don't think i'd do that well. Picking everyday i reckon i'd do well to get 55%. However in this last week of the season theres usually alot more opportunities than at any other point in the year with teams unwilling to take chances on star players with the playoffs coming up.

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