2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts.

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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. Elm Park....amongst the top rank at 2 including winning the group 1 Racing Post Trophy. Like Golden Horn, there are huge worries on the stamina side, his sire is not noted for group 1 class horses and he has a strong preference for soft ground, which he will not get if the forecast is to be believed. My biggest worry though, despite it being his 1st run of the season, was how he folded so quickly in the Dante.

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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. Moheet..... Won his only start at 2, But has twice been comfortably beaten this season. There is hope on the breeding side that he could stay, but, not being able to win the craven whilst in receipt of 3lb means that if this race is truly deserving of its status this year, then he should have done better. The main worry though is the trainer whom like his father, is/was not noted for training anything top class over further than a mile. If that don't scare you, then the trainer entering him in just about all group 1 races coming up from a mile to 12 furlongs says he doesn't know what his best trip is.

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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. Success Days....if the owner wants to throw away 75k in the future, can he please throw it my way? Quite simply, both on sire and dam side, he will not stay.May have looked half decent in winning small field, soft ground races in Ireland, but this is totally different..he will pan out in either of 2 ways...he will lead then get swamped, or he won't lead and will sulk...if this wins, I'm giving up the game.

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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. Zawraq....by Sharmadal who was group 1 class upto 10f and not noted for breeding anything of note over further. It's a similar story on the dam side from Height Of Fashion to Sarayir, 8-10f looks the optimum trip. Another negative is, he's not run in almost 2 months, not withstanding his recent injury scare. The Eclipse next month would be a more logical target, but only if he has a prep race.

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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. Rogue Runner...100/1 ew...nrnb Betfred Nope, not lost my marbles, but seeing as though I've eliminated 8 runners who either won't stay or not running, I may aswell use my best of times refund on a true stayer. His chance is not obvious at all, considering he was beaten in a group 3 lto. The reasoning comes in his nationality. Whilst English, French and Irish breeders have recently become hell bent on producing milers and 10f horses, hence the reason for the upgrading of certain races and increased prize money, German and Japanese breeders still want the 12f plus horses. As seen in recent seasons with the likes of Pastorious and Danedream, the Germans know how to produce high class stayers, also note the number of NH German breds now racing over here. Not saying he's anywhere near as good as those horses, but his breeding is labelled with stamina, the dam comfortably got 11f in a group 1 whilst here sire, Lomitas was group 1 class over 12f. Place is his best chance, but I'm more than confident he'll beat half of this field at least, despite his poor draw.

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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. And finally, other than my 2 bets, the others, whom on paper, have the best chance of staying the trip. Giovanni Canaletto, price has contracted sharply due to Ryan Moore taking the ride. Made a belated reappearance after missing his intended Chester run, Keith a nice performance in the Ballysax. O Briens normally improve for the run, but his preparation seems to have been rushed. O Briens body language when talking of him earlier wasn't encouraging and he seems scared of the ground going against him. Irish derby seems a better target providing there is dig in the ground.

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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. Hans Holbein...put up the best trial performance when winning from start to finish at Chester. Relished the ground that day, so faster conditions are a worry. As it, Ryan Moore deserting him. Has stamina in abundance and looks a future cup horse.Low draw is also a worry if he, as presumed, is there as a pacemaker.

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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. Kilimanjaro...won both starts this season including lingfield derby trial where he handled the course perfectly well, but not in an impressive style, eventually getting on top in the last furlong. Looks the most likely of the o Brien runners to make the frame IMO. Difficult to crab him in what is a poor year, but he lost his 1st 2 races by a total of 30 lengths, and that is not a sign of a derby winner, even in a poor renewal.

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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. Jack Hobbs.. The only horse in the field that matches my trends....but he's very easy to take apart. His trainer is worried about fast ground. How many derby winners have even driven past Wolverhampton, never mind made their debut there? Held every chance in the Dante before fading, proberley due to the ground where he hung badly. And my own personal favourite, it's entirely possible that the Dante came to soon after his Sandown win..proberley needs a decent 5 week plus break between his races.

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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. So, after all that, I'm left with Rogue Runner and Storm The Seas. Will add Kilamanjaro for exacta and trifecta reasons. Thanks for reading and good luck if following.

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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. Good stuff. Agree on Canaletto who's had a very rushed preparation. He's way too babyish for me although the headgear may help and I think he's up against it. Backed Kilimanjaro myself who's completely unexposed to me. He didn't look to be doing much down the straight at Lingfield and I thought he had a good bit left in the tank at the finish so I'm hoping he can hit the frame at least.

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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. Good to firm is now in the ground conditions, which is bad news for Elm Park and Jack Hobbs. If you've not had a bet already, then I would wait until as late as possible I case of non runners and rule 4.

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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. Well Dettori proved 2 things. Form is temporary and class is permanent, and I was wrong about the horse staying, winning the race quite easily and in a very good time. Eclipse is his next reputed target, which is logical, as this race was set up for a finisher, which gave him every chance of staying. If you ever want to see a horse commit suicide, watch Elm Park. For a suspect stayer on unfavourable ground, he helped to set a suicidal pace with Hans Holbein, he can't be touched until the autumn over a shorter trip, softer ground and lesser company. Epicurus and Storm The Stars then kept up the pace, only to run out of stamina and leave the race to the 2 horses who were last to make their move. Jack Hobbs ran a cracker on ground deemed faster than ideal. Next target seems to be the Irish version in 3 weeks. 3 problems spring to mind. Fast ground is the norm at the Curragh, the race coming too soon and Coolmore realising that just maybe, Highland Reel is their middle distance horse this year. Whilst Giovanni Canaletto will be better suited to the Eclipse if the ground softens.

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Re: 2014 Epsom Derby Trends And Thoughts. As for future races, my 3 to take from the race are, Storm The Stars, whom ATM, is not top class. His best chance of group glory would be the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood on fast ground. He's proberley better on courses with a short finishing straight. Epicuris, whom as predicted, was an arsehole pre race, and considering his antics and poor draw, ran a great race. Ground was also wrong for him. Now we know he gets the trip, especially if he learns to settle, then ATM, he's an ew play for the Arc at Chantilly in October. Kilimanjaro, was held up at the back and kept on quite nicely to finish mid div without ever looking like winning. Takes an eternity to find his stride, so the longer trip and long finishing straight of the St Leger should be ideal.