NBA Friday

[TazaD]

Detroit -5.5 League: 1-9 (Av. loss 12.5) home 5+ dog, 1 day off any OT as home (-3 to +3). [Orl] 0-5 (Av. loss 14.0) if they also lost ats. No real idea how an OT game over-rates a team, but there you go! Hill out for good, and after losing to Chicago, they must now know that the play-offs are out of reach. Their last 4 wins have been over Portland, Atlanta, Toronto and a big NJ collapse, and they will be severely out-classed by a Detroit team who are playing much better now with the return of Brown to the sideline. (Won their last 4 games by an av. of 13 points) Sacramento -5.5 League: 11-5-1 (14-3 this no...Av. win 11.1) away 5+ fav, 2 days off 15+ ats win as home fav. [sac] 7-1 (8-0 this no...Av. win 15.5!) if opp was last 5+ dog. Despite a close loss to the Warriors, Portland are sill a bad team. They are 5-14 this season after scoring 100+, so scoring consistancy has been a problem all season. Scoring definately hasn't been the Kings' problem of late, av. 110 ppg over their last 5 inc an 82 point effort at Detroit! Sacramento still have plenty to play for, being locked in a tight battle with Houston and Denver for seeding in the West, and I expect them to leave Portland trailing in their wake tonight.

[sani]

Re: NBA Friday Detroit over Orlando (+5.5) @ 1.92 (www.multibet.com) Detroit is once again dominating, maybe because Larry Brown is back, but maybe it's because they're simply built for postseason success. They easily took last 4 games, winning in double digits in all four of them (Sac, LAC, @Tor, Was). And we all know what Orlando's current form is like. Grant Hill is out (probably for season), Nelson is banged up (although it didn't seem to affect him in the last game), and Howard is going to have a tough night against 'Wallace & Wallace'. People seem to forget that Detroit's record last year was 'only' 54-28 (47-27 so far this season), so with all downs they've had this year they can still match their last season win total. And we all know what they were able to do after those 54 wins last year. NBA is all about timing (well, atleast the playoffs are) and achieving the best form at the right moment. So much has been said about resting key players so they could be ready for key stretches of season, maybe Pistons did this with their coach Larry 'the Brain' Brown. If his hip was a problem, perhaps they decided to rather go without him in March than maybe stay without him sometime in May. I saw Detroit's last game agains Wizzards, and in one word, they were IMPRESSIVE. "Deeetroit baskeeeetbaaall' at it's best. When Larry Brown said it was fine-tuning time, nobody expected he would try using Big Ben more on offense, but so far that experiment turned out to be a successfull one. He has some more tricks, i'm sure, and other coaches should be afraid of that. Getting another double-digit win shouldn't be a problem for his Pistons tonight. Key Factor: One of the best starting lineups in history of basketball (backed up by some great reserves) going against a team that only has 2 starters left from the beggining of the season (Francis, Howard). New Orleans over Utah (+4.5) @ 2.02 (www.pointbet.com) To make this simple, i'd take any team hosting Utah with just 4.5 points spread at this moment. And that Jazz win against Portland won't fool me. This is a team that will probably be without it's top 3 scorers (AK, Boozer, Bell) tonight, plus they'll go without their PG Lopez. Life in the NBA doesn't get any more difficult than it is right now for Utah's coach Jerry Sloan. And while Hornets are far from a good team, they have shown some signs of improvement, although it was easy to improve after the way they started the season. They have what it takes to beat some bad teams, and make some games against strong ones close. They also don't have any Korean centers on their roster, like Porland does. Actually if they get lucky at the draft lottery, get Big Cat at 100% next year and see J.R. Smith improve, they could even be a team with a nice upside. It's a long shot, but it's possible. It might seem like they have nothing to play for, but like i said before, this late in season, always go with the teams that started the season miserably and than improved, especially when they are playing a team that had high hopes but failed badly. Key Factor: Jerry Sloan after the game against Minnesota in which he got ejected in first quarter: 'It was one of the most enjoyable evenings I've had in a long time'. How many times do i have to say this: He just doesn't give a f... anymore. Philadelphia over Cleveland (+6) @ 1.93 (www.pointbet.com) Webber's back, Ilgauskas is out. This is enough for me to bet on Sixers, but if you need more convincing, read on. Cleveland is in deep, deep trouble. King James can't do it all by himself. He is getting extended minutes, and he doesn't seem to get tired at all, but his supporting cast is just terrible. Count out that surprise win over Dallas, and the last time Cavs defeated a playoff team was on March 22nd, vs Detroit (without Larry Brown). And they had 6 losses to playoff teams (average margin of loss 22.2 pts!!!) since that game (plus that one win against Dallas). They also defeated NO and LAC in that stretch, but that doesn't impress me. Philadelphia is not very impressive lately, but with Webber in the lineup once again, they can only get better. And if Iverson can continue to do what he did to Charlotte the other night this game will really hurt Cavaliers' pride. Key Factor: Point total for Cleveland players not named LeBron in last 2 games: 113 (56.5 per game). Does it get anymore difficult for 'the King'? He could even miss the playoffs once again. Denver over Minnesota @ 2.40 (www.willhill.com) Just look at the standings and current form, and you'll see why this one makes sense. No need to say a word about how Denver has been playing lately, but the standings say that they are just one game behind Rockets for 6th spot in West, and that magic number 6 means they'd play Seattle in the first round, not San Antonio. Do they need something else to motivate them to give their best tonight? Coach Karl wasn't happy with that win over New Orleans, so they might have to give more than 100% tonight. Wolves have shown a lot of signs of improvement in last several games they played, and KG has played like an MVP he still is, but if there is a player built for stopping Garnett (well, slowing him down, since there's no stopping him) then it's gotta be Marcus Camby. He will have all the help he needs coming from K-Mart, another incredible defender. Minnesota has it's own weapons, but Nuggets seem to have too much of everything for any team they face (except Phoenix). Key Factor: The Nuggets improved to an astonishing 19-1 in the last 20 games that G DerMarr Johnson has started. He'll start tonight. Sacramento over Portland (+5.5) @ 1.91 (www.pointbet.com) Portland was able to stay close against Denver (97-103) and Golden State (102-104), but they are just baaad. No words can describe how poor their recent form has been, and Kings on the other side seem to be improving. Their shooting in particular (116.7 ppg over last three games). If they can score 110 again tonight, they'll cover 5.5 spread with ease. And something that should make Sacramento's fans happy is the fact that they seem to get everyone involved on offense, so defending against them is not just playing regular defense for 3 quarters, and then simply triple-team Bibby in fourth. I still don't like them, but they are much better than they were a month ago. Maybe it's because Peja found his rhytm, maybe it's because Cuttino's injury is long gone now, but they just seem to be a very potent offensive team once again. Defense remains the problem, but atleast they have no injured players (counting out long term absentees Brad Miller and Bobby Jackson). They might not need defense at all against Portland tonight. Add the fact Portland will probably be without their injured trio of Miles, Anderson and Ratliff once again. Key Factor: Portland is just too bad, and Sacramento can't afford losing games like this. They'll try to close it as soon as possible. Golden State over Phoenix @ 3.00 (www.willhill.com) It could be a longshot, but Warriors are the hottest team in the NBA, and i'll take 3.00 moneyline no matter who they're playing. They are playing this one at home, so that will help with all those excited fans in Oakland (who can blame them?). They already took one in Phoenix 20 days ago (110-100), so they have proven they're up to it. Phoenix is also hot, but 3.00 moneyline, giving Warriors only 35% chances of winning tonight really makes no sense. Just have a look at the player matchups, and you decide. PG: B Davis vs S Nash, SG: J Richardson vs J Johnson, SF: Dunleavy vs Q Richardson, PF: T Muprhy vs S Marion, C: A Foyle vs A Stoudemire, BENCH: Pietrus, Cabarkapa, Biedrins, Fisher vs Barbosa, Jackson, Hunter, McCarty. Even though Suns still are a better team (but not a deeper team, and that might come to play with all the running we'll see in this game), Warriors can definitely take this home game and their odds to do it are a lot bigger than 35%. Key Factor: Suns are on a 6-game winning streak, second best in league, the only team with more consecutive wins are Golden State Warriors, winners of 7 straight.