Aintree bets/analysis etc

[bowles10]

Ok, just throw it all in here. Bets, Tips, analysis the lot. I will post later with my selections for tomorrow s card.

[bowles10]

Re: Aintree bets/analysis etc 1st race, over 3m, the key here is the form of those horses from Cheltenham with the 3rd, 4th & 5th from the World hurdle re-opposing. Westender gets 4lb for 2l behind Rule Supreme who finished 3rd behind Inglis Drever. Korelo was a further 7l behind & gets a 4lb pull off Westender & 8lb off Rule Supreme. I feel this flatter track will suit the pipe pair to land the 1st race here. Murphy has to ride Korelo for owner Johnson but I really think Westender can show his mettle here. Was 3rd only beaten 3/4l & 1/2l over 2m 4f at the mtg last year behind Rhinestone Cowboy & Rooster booster lasy season in the Aintree Hurdle. I have it between these 3 with Westender being the selection with the other 2 fighting out the places. 2nd race, over 3m 1f, favs have fared badly with only 2 from 10 winning. Older horses have fared well in recent years with horses aged 10 or 11 winning 4 out of last 5. That brings in Grey Abbey (11), Tiutchev (12) & First Gold (12). Tiutchev & First Gold fought out the finish last year & First Gold has won this race twice & 2nd from 3 attempts. Getting weight allowances from the others, i think First Gold cannot be ignored. Of the others, I cannot see Thisthatandtother jumping well enough & keeping up with these stayers. Sir Rembrandt ran well at Cheltenham but that effort may have taken him over for this season & again, the horse never seems to get his head in front. My selection would be First Gold. With Grey Abbey, Tuitchev & Sir Rembrandt to fight out the placings.

[bowles10]

Re: Aintree bets/analysis etc 3rd race, over 2m, 6 of the last 10 winners finished down the field in the Triumph hurdle, no winner of the triumph has done the double since 1979, however Penznance is not running in this. Those horses who ran in the race are: Admiral Cerium Courant D'air Faasel Phar Bleu Strangely Brown With the last 3 winners being longer priced 16/1, 25/1 & 33/1. I would consider taking a chance on the higher price horses which would be Phar bleu, Admiral & Courant D'air. Admiral ran 4 days ago & to win again would mean another big improvement. McCoy has won on Phar bleu twice this season & clearly knows what the horse can do. it has run well on flatter tracks & perhaps Cheltenham did not suit, but it still ran a great race to be 5th. My selection would be Phar Bleu, with Miss academy chasing it home.

[bowles10]

Re: Aintree bets/analysis etc I havent a clue in the foxhunters & wont even try! Race 5 is a chase over 2m, Horse aged 7-9 seem to have an advantage here. only 2 horses in last 10 races have carried more than 11st 5lb to win & they were both 8yo. I was waiting for Golden Alpha to run again this season 7 the horse has won this race 2 yr ago but off 11st 12lb i cannot see him doing it again. Horses normally come here from Cheltenham & the race i picked up from was Fota islands victory. Horses like L'Ange Au Ciel & Bleu Superbe were in arrears that day, but i felt that the latter Bleu Superbe ran a cracker at 66/1 that day when leading off the bend to the 2nd last when impeded by another horse & ran out of steam. This 2m is easier & i think both these horses will run considerably better & reverse form with Fota Island. Kadount is the other interesting runner after unseating in the Arkle when travelling quite well. My tentative selection would be an each way bet on Bleu Superbe with savers on L'Ange Au Ciel & Kadount.

[bowles10]

Re: Aintree bets/analysis etc Race 6, over 2m 4f. Mephisto, mephisto, Mephisto!!!!!!! didnt run at Cheltenham, must be followed here as trainer / owner has saved the horse for this meeting. Pole Star is the one to beat, but i'll go with Mephisto.

[SmallTimePunter]

Re: Aintree bets/analysis etc First Race, MR ED, for me e/w around 14/1, was very progressive before picking up an injury, P Bowens 44% s/r here is impressive, and AP can only be another plus, great value will like ground, proven on the course. Well i talked Grey Abbey up lto and it lost, one of my fav horses and gutted this may be its last race :cry :cry :cry , not letting my heart rule my head my selection here is JIM real good performance lto at leopardstown, rain will be appreciated so i hope the weather mans right, cant see the forecast 20/1 being about tommorow, but should still be great value, the most intresting in the field..... or should i stick with grey :\ .......... I like the champs mount in the 3.10 Unraced on Flat; good initial progress over hurdles culminated in Grade 1 win in Chepstow mud and bounced back from two comprehensive defeats when about 10l fifth in the Triumph; 66/1 and never threatened the principals at Cheltenham on good ground and probably needs conditions testing to get competitive here. Had some of these in front last time out, intresting the champs been booked for the job, will strip fitter, and should at least place. 4.20 my last bet dont like the other races, a big meet doesnt go by without a pipe/ murphy/ johnson winner and i think GOLDEN ALPHA is there best chance on day 1, won this in 2003, vibes are its going well at home, main concern is the weight, plenty enough.

[bowles10]

Re: Aintree bets/analysis etc unlucky with Mr ed STP, i managed to tip 3 seconds & a third:cry so no cigar for me. will be looking at a different method today. came up with: 2.00 Chauvinist 2.35 Sea Captain 3.45 Rathbawn Prince 4.20 Moulin Riche 4.55 Zetas River 5.30 Holland Park

[bowles10]

Re: Aintree bets/analysis etc came up with: 2.00 Chauvinist 2.35 Sea Captain 3.45 Rathbawn Prince 4.20 Moulin Riche 4.55 Zetas River........2nd 5.30 Holland Park......1st 10/1:D oh well, just the one winner today!;)