Tournament betting, examining strategies.

[mr onemore]

Re: Tournament betting, examining strategies. Just reading about this tournamant in the 'Other Sports' forum - and it's not clear that O'Sullivan will in fact face harder oppostion in the next couple of rounds - Maguire is seen as quite a fair opponent - that would indaicate that odds in the next round may in fact be lower than the 1.3 assumed.

[Rob]

Re: Tournament betting, examining strategies.

:rollin @ emerson Sorry mate

You will lose £25 if he wins the tournament. You will only get the £10 if he loses, so the £10 you are using to bet with in the matches is money you don't have yet. If he wins the tournament then you need to subtract this £10 from the final total as you never had it!

I make it that by your argument you will make a shade over £2 profit, not the £12 you stated, but...

Hang on a minute, is this right? if he wins the tounement the backer gets 25 quid back including his stake i.e. you give him £15 and his £10 stake back right? However if he wins, you've backed Ronnie 5 times at 1.3 so you've got 10*1.3^5 = £37.13. Minus your £10 stake, thats £27 isn't it? So you pay out £15 and make £27?

[mr onemore]

Re: Tournament betting, examining strategies. Hi Emerson, Using your numbers and example, If Ronnie should lose at some stage, Then you collect £10 from your backer, but lose your cumulative running bet on Ronnie winning each match - a bet where you started by using this £10. So in this case - it's zero returns/profit. I think we agree here. If however Ronnie doesn't lose at all, but wins the tournament, Then you payout £25 to your backer. In the meantime, you have been using a £10 bet, knowing you would get this £10 back in the event that Ronnie loses. But Ronnie hasn't lost in this scenario, so you have to produce this tenner yourself. This accumulates a profit in exactly the way you describe. 10*1.3^5 = about £37, less the £10 you put up, leaving a profit of £27 So, overall, you get your £27 - £25 = £2 profit. Think I'm right here :hope Now - I've just looked at the Betfair odds for this tourney, and Maguire is 5th favourite. That would suggest that Ronnie will have easier opposition in the next couple of rounds should he go through, and that will mean odds of less than 1.30. I predict that should you follow this strategy you'll lose about 2% of your stake - we can follow it through the tournament though to check it all out...

[Rob]

Re: Tournament betting, examining strategies.

If however Ronnie doesn't lose at all, but wins the tournament, Then you payout £25 to your backer.

Mr Onemore, I think you're wrong here. If ronnie wins I pay out £15 because the £25 includes the backers stake. If you go onto betfair and try to lay Ronnie, put 10 in the 'backers stake' box and it will tell you that your liability is £15 (I know its 2.54 now or something, but you see the point) However, you may be right that I've underestimated Maguire. I'll do this one on paper and see how it pans out:ok

[mr onemore]

Re: Tournament betting, examining strategies. Hi Emerson, You're right there:ok - I have made a mistake.:o As you say, the profit in this example is around £12. Which makes me wonder what is going on in this situation.....as even if the next two opponents are easier at say 1.20, and taking commision, you're going to shade a profit here (don't take my word on that!!!!!)

[Dino]

Re: Tournament betting, examining strategies.

[the market mechanism Now lets see if i understand you right. Basically what you are saying is that the market works in such a way, that at each stage the odds will shift only so much, that no profit can be made, only a loss that equals the bookies overround. So if you look at a market where the odds actually represent the probability of each team/player, and the market is formed with an overround, i fully agree. At least i agree that this is the most plausible, most likely thing to happen. But it is not a perfect world and the bookies are not fallable. So maybe, just maybe there is some sort of bias present. Maybe there is a lot more money being put on the favourite by the end of a tournament than at the start. That may result in higher odds than what they should be because the bookies try to limit their liability on all the outsiders. Maybe the other way around. Maybe there is so much room on the outsiders that the favourites are very poor value at the start of a tournament and the odds come closer to the probability of winning near the end. My point is, it is plausable that the actual market workings are different from the one given by the pure maths. Either way we end up with the same conclusion; value has to be found somehow/somewhere.

HI DP I think that you're spot on with your assumptions. If you compare the outright odds throughout the run of a tournament then there are certainly times when you are much more likely to strike value. Take euro 2004,the O/R per runner for the outright odds at the start of the tournament was around 1% per runner. Compare this with backing the typical "to qualify" odds for each team,firstly from the groups & then from the knockout stages.By doing it stage by stage would have seen you trying to bite over 2% per runner instead of only 1%. So the round by round odds as you rightly suggest,don't tally with the outright odds posted before a ball is kicked.The margins are much tighter on the outright market(and continue to be so almost to the final) and the room for error on the bookies part is also very small. Best time for the value is therefore at the start & rarely on a round by round basis. The O/R per runner is also usually up to around 4% per runner by the final,so finding value then,even in a skewed market is difficult. The best backing/laying tactic initially depends on how much O/R the bookie allocates himself & more importantly how he distributes it. D.

[Rob]

Re: Tournament betting, examining strategies.

Hi Emerson, You're right there:ok - I have made a mistake.:o As you say, the profit in this example is around £12. Which makes me wonder what is going on in this situation.....as even if the next two opponents are easier at say 1.20, and taking commision, you're going to shade a profit here (don't take my word on that!!!!!)

Well lets find out shall we.... I've layed Ronnie at 2.54 this morning with a backers stake of £10. So I stand to win £9.50 (after commission) if he loses and pay out £15.40 if he wins. I've also backed him in his 1st round match at 1.32 with a £9.50 stake to win £2.89 after commission. I'm not going to retire on any profit here, but I think it'll be interesting to see if theres a "+" on the profit and loss by the end of the tournement. :hope

[Datapunter]

Re: Tournament betting, examining strategies. I've had a stressfull week and need a good night out and a sleep-in before i can think straight again so just a quick word as the snooker is about to start. emersonthome, i think you may have jumped the gun a bit because i'm actually thinking to go the complete opposite :lol Look at the draw; if Ronnie wins his first match he will face either Marco Fu or Allister Carter, currently on the outright market at 160 and 120. So that will be a match where Ronnie could be priced as low as 1.10. In the next round he will face one of these : Stephen Lee, Tony Drago, Peter Ebdon, Quinten Hann, again possibly a very low price for Ronnie. It won't be until the semi-final that you can get a good match price again, and then that depends on who makes it. So back Ronnie outright 100 @ 2.5 => potential profit =150 First round, Lay Ronnie @ 1.30 Ronnie wins : -30 on the match, potential outright = 120 Ronnie loses : +100 on the match, -100 outright = break even Second round, Lay Ronnie @ 1.10 Ronnie wins : -10 on the match, potential outright = 110 Ronnie loses : +100 on the match, -100 outright = break even Third round, Lay Ronnie @ 1.10 Ronnie wins : -10 on the match, potential outright = 100 Ronnie loses : +100 on the match, -100 outright = break even Now at this point we face the semi-final. What we need for a sure profit is for the odds on Ronnie to win the tournament to be lower that 2.00 Back 100 @ 2.50 => 150 profit, Lay 100 @ 2.00 => 100 profit, lost 50 on the matches = break even. So at this point a price on Ronnie lower than 2.00 gives a certain profit. Sounds plausibel to me. ( disclaimer: might change my mind again after a night on the town :lol remember at the moment its just a think-tank )

[Datapunter]

Re: Tournament betting, examining strategies. Here's another thought that occured to me: suppost i lay 2 players who i think will not win but who will meet half way the tournament. Looking at the draw for the snooker possible candidates are : Higgings and Hunter, Hendry and Stevens, Doherty and Williams, who will meet in the quarter final. So with some luck both players get knocked out in the first round and we are laughing, with less luck they both make it to the quarter final where in any case one of the 2 lay bets will always win. What we need on the one going to the semi-final is a price big enough to get out break even. :loon Have only done a few sqribbles with the odds and numbers on this, more later in the weekend, time for some :beer

[Rob]

Re: Tournament betting, examining strategies.

emersonthome, i think you may have jumped the gun a bit because i'm actually thinking to go the complete opposite :lol Look at the draw; if Ronnie wins his first match he will face either Marco Fu or Allister Carter, currently on the outright market at 160 and 120. So that will be a match where Ronnie could be priced as low as 1.10. In the next round he will face one of these : Stephen Lee, Tony Drago, Peter Ebdon, Quinten Hann, again possibly a very low price for Ronnie. It won't be until the semi-final that you can get a good match price again, and then that depends on who makes it.

Data, you may be right here, but isn't Marco Fu doing alright in the premier league snooker? (just checked, he's joint top with Ronnie and Hendry). Also, I wouldn't expect 1.1 against Ebdon in the next round. Plus the semi's and the final must be at least 1.4? Only time will tell, but I can afford to stand a couple of quid in the name of science!

[Rob]

Re: Tournament betting, examining strategies. Thought Ronnie was on his bike early doors there! Unfortunately for me, ronnie showed quite a lot of nerve against maguire, probably shortening his price even further in the next round. He might just have helped me out though with his annual 'I don't give a fcuk about snooker' interview afterwards:rollin

[Rob]

Re: Tournament betting, examining strategies. OK, got £12.38 on Ronnie against Carter at a rather skinny 1.15. Didn't see the carter vs. fu match, but I was hoping for about 1.2 :( Anyway, break even if Ronnie goes out, and up to £4.33 'profit' (after commission) if he wins. (yes, I know it's not really profit yet) maybe Ebdon or Lee can give him a better game in the next round

[bluekinkladze]

Re: Tournament betting, examining strategies. Very interesting thread guys. Shall follow this closely............. :clap :clap

[Rob]

Re: Tournament betting, examining strategies. I seem to have loused up the maths in the previous post as my next bet is £14.15, I try to tidy this up later.:o Anyway, £14.15 on Ronnie at 1.21 (theres a fair bit of money either side of this price, so I don't think it's gonna move too much). this to win £2.97 (2.82 after commission) and put the bank up to £16.97. I'll try to summarise the bets in a new post when I get chance

[Rob]

Re: Tournament betting, examining strategies. Right here's a summary of bets so far... Lay Ronnie @ 2.54 I win $9.50 if he goes out, I pay $15.40 if he wins Back Ronnie through the rounds 1st round, back Ronnie @1.32 with $9.50, got $12.38 back (a/c) 2nd round, back Ronnie @1.15 with $12.38, got $14.15 back (a/c) 3rd round, back Ronnie @1.21 with $14.15, will get $16.97 back when he beats Ebdon. So I've now got 2 rounds to get up to $24.90 to break even.

[Datapunter]

Re: Tournament betting, examining strategies. sorry i haven't followed upon this emersonthome, must admit i haven't followed the snooker at all. as Ronnie didn't win it, you got out break even right ? I'll be back on this with some of the upcoming tennis tournaments.

[Rob]

Re: Tournament betting, examining strategies. Yeah broke even DP. I was looking like I was going to more or less break even anyway cos the match odds were lower than I expected. He would have been low in the semi against Murphy if he'd got through, and a bit higher in the final against Stevens, so I might have made 3 or 4 quid if I was lucky. What tennis tournement were you thinking of, the french open? I see Federer is ridiculously low for Wimbledon