Flat Racing 18th March

[chris34]

2.20 Southwell The top 3 dominate the betting and should dominate the finish having finished 1^st 2^nd and 3^rd here last week, of the others; Upper Lambourn has totally lost the plot this winter and remains one to avoid at present. China Excels showed little over 6f around here last time out and needs to step up on that. Fathom Five is on a good mark and does act on this surface but easily held off this mark last time out and recently. Two Turtle Doves has returned out of form and showed little on fibresand debut on penultimate start and best left alone for now despite De Sousa being booked. Pearl Noir acts around here but has struggled back in handicaps having won a maiden. Lucky Mark won last time out a class 7 handicap at Wolverhampton over 6f, but not totally convinced on this surface and 5lb higher today. Caramelita was won last time out, 1/2 length in front of Heartsong. She is only effectively 4lb higher under penalty due to a reduction in handicap mark before new one kicks in. Heartsong is quirky these days and showed that last time out when slow away before getting to front and then fading at the death having exerted so much to get to the front, runs off the same mark and Queally takes over so loses the 3lb claim of useful claimer, he remains one to tread carefully with these days. Dancing Freddy was a 1 ¼ length behind Caramelita last time out but he is 2lb lower as his new mark has kicked in today so is 6lb better off with the winner and 2lb better off with Heartsong, he rarely runs a bad race around here and is the more reliable one of the 3 and looks set to run well. 2pt win Dancing Freddy 11/4 PP (was 4/1 when writing this and advised at 3/1 on twitter)

[joeblitz]

Re: Flat Racing 18th March 5.05 Southwell Brownsville 4/1 BetVictor BOG Alumina has won her last 3 including at this track. My concern is her rise in the weights and the poor form of the stable of the past week. Browesville has his first run here for the powerful Johnston/Fanning combination whose stable are in good form. 2 poor efforts at Wolverhampton can be forgiven due to the track and poor stable form at the time. He had 2 good runs last year on turf. 2nd at Leicester and 3rd at Catterick which would give him a great chance here. Johnston has a great record here too and I think that although he will need further in time, that he will win today. 10 Points win Brownsville 4/1 BetVictor BOG