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WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition


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Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Well it turned out that yesterday was going to be one of Weaver's days. He went deep into the 8th inning only giving 5 hits away. PIT bats were kept quiet as expected but it took San Diego 12 innings to get themselves on the scoreboard. One where the handicap let us down. BET 19 ATL 4 FLA 2 Returns: 4.80pts BET 20 PIT 0 SD 1(in 12) Returns: 0pts BET 21 LAD 6 SF 0 Returns: 0pts Total Returns Today:4.80pts Todays Profit:-3.20pts UPDATE Start Bank: 100pts Current Bank: 85.30pts Profit: -14.70pts Stakes: 42pts Av.Stake: 2pts Yield: -35.00% No. of bets:21 Winners:7 Losers:14 SR:33.33% Av.Odds:2.20

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Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition 3 more games and Im gonna be mighty pissed if I dont get a winner or two from these. BET 23 00.05am Sat 9th BAL @ NYY - NYY(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 2.15 (P.Power) BET 24 00.15am Sat 9th BOS @ TOR - TOR(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 2.20 (W.Hills) BET 25 03.05am Sat 9th KC @ LAA - LAA(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 1.90 (W.Hills) BET 24 should be BOS @ TOR - BOS(-1.5) to win Edit at 11.26

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Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition UNBELIVEABLE!! You finally manage two winners and they both get screwed by the handicap in the 9th innings. All I can say is Im hoping for a upturn once some form appears and that this period will be a learning curve for next season to leave the opening period alone. BET 22 PHI 5 STL 6 Returns: 0pts BET 23 BAL 12 NYY 5 Returns: 0pts BET 24 BOS 6 TOR 5 Returns: 0pts BET 25 KC 6 LAA 2 Returns: 0pts Total Returns Today:0.00pts Todays Profit:-8.00pts :puke UPDATE Start Bank: 100pts Current Bank: 77.30pts Profit: -22.70pts Stakes: 50pts Av.Stake: 2pts Yield: -45.40% No. of bets:25 Winners:7 Losers:18 SR:28.00% Av.Odds:2.19

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Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Im going to be out between now and 7 o'clockish so Im having to put up a few tips now. As far as Im concerned BAL had no right beating NYY last night, up until now they couldnt hit a thing. I expect that to be the same situation as the big unit takes the mound for NYY. Short on the money line, just about acceptable on the handicap. Jake Westbrook is unlucky to have a record that reads 0-1 for the season. Keeping CWS to 4 hits and 1 run over 8 innings, he still lost the game due to no run support. Thats really been the case for the Indians so far , only really getting their bats working in the last match of the CWS series. Westbrook should keep his side of things low, its up to what the Cleveland bats do. Im going for a low scorer. BET 26 06.05pm Sat 9th BAL @ NYY(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 1.71 (W.Hills) BET 27 06.05pm Sat 9th CLE @ DET - Under 9.5 runs 2pts @ 1.86 (W.Hills) New Bank: 73.30pts

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Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition ATL have started the season 3-1 whereas NYM are a rock bottom 0-4. ATL pitcher Ramirez missed much of last season with injury but before that had an ERA of 2.28. Expect ATL to add to NYM's woes but they havnt been destroying teams so Ill avoid the handicap this time around. LAD have started 3-1 on the road. ARI have a mixed record of 2-2. LAD pitcher Erickson has had some problems with injuries down the years but was cleared ok during Spring Training and earjned his place in the rotation by pitching an ERA of 2.00 over 8 games. Vazquez allowed 7 runs from 10 hits in 1 1/2 innings against the Cubs. LAD left it until the 9th on Friday to score 4 runs and win 8-7 but I think this time they could again come out on top but with a little more time to spare. BET 28 00.05am Sun 10th NYM @ ATL - ATL to win 2pts @ 1.65 (B365) BET 29 02.40am Sun 10th LAD @ ARI - LAD to win 2pts @ 2.1 (Ladbrokes) New Bank: 69.30pts

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Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition At last, some profit! BET 26 BAL 5 NYY 8 Returns: 3.42pts BET 27 CLE 1 DET 11(12) Returns: 0pts BET 28 NYM 3 ATL 6 Returns: 3.30pts BET 29 LAD 12 ARI 10(in 11) Returns: 4.20pts Total Returns Today:10.92pts Todays Profit:2.92pts UPDATE Start Bank: 100pts Current Bank: 80.22pts Profit: -19.78pts Stakes: 58pts Av.Stake: 2pts Yield: -34.10% No. of bets:29 Winners:10 Losers:19 SR:34.48% Av.Odds:2.15

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Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Right, Ive had a look at the first lot of games. DET would look good but theyve got a young pitcher playing for his spot in the rotation. If he cracks they could get demolished but he may thrive under the pressure. One Ill leave at this stage in the season. ATL would look good again and are tempting at odds against but the reason for that price is Martinez is on the mound for NYM. Anything could happen. FLA's problem so far has been the consistency of their hitting. Twice winning 9-0 but only managing 5 between thier other 3 games. They have only given 9 runs though so pitchings been consistent. 1 bet for now and I may be back later. BET 30 06.05pm Sun 10th WAS @ FLA - Under 8.5 runs 2pts @ 1.8 (SportingBet) New Bank: 78.22pts

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Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Since their opening day loss against STL, HOU have gone on a 3 game winning streak. A victory tonight will put them on 4 ina row and 12 in a row against CIN. Oswalt is the perfect man to do it for them too. In 15 games against CIN his record is 11-0 with an ERA of 2.51. Milton will be pitching for CIN and will do so off only 3 days rest. In three previous career starts of short rest Milton is 0-2. With such a hike in price Im going to be greedy and take the handicap. This is a bit of a value bet. At the start of the season Id expect OAK to beat Tampa Bay but then I wouldnt expect them to be going into the match in these circumstances. This ones about form. After dropping their first two games to TOR, TB won the 3rd and went on to win their first two of this series against OAK. OAK's fortunes are the reverse, they swept BAL in their opening series but have already lost this series and are playing to avoid the sweep. With two victories already and the momentum with them I dont think TB should be odds against. Since opening day win COL have lost 3 straight. A lot of these is down to their bullpen who have given up 19 runs in 13 1/2 innings over the 4 games. The Giants are looking to increase their wiining streak to 3 games and sweep this series. They have just the man for the job in Schmidt, he has a lifetime record against COL of 7-2 and a 2.80 ERA. LAD could count themselves a little lucky. A late rally in Game 1 brought them victory and 4 runs in the 11th inning of Game 2 brought them a second. This after ARI had bases loaded with 1 out and could have won the game in the 10th. That said though it's two wins that put LAD on a 4 game winning streak which isnt going to do the confidence any damage. Lowe takes the mound who consider himself unlucky to pick up a loss in LAD's opener. He gave up 3 runs in 7 innings but unfortunatly got little support from his hitters. The fact that ARI have come close in both games may only bring them more frustration. BET 31 07.05pm Sun 10th CIN @ HOU - HOU(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 2.45 (W.Hills) BET 32 07.15pm Sun 10th OAK @ TB - TB to win 2pts @ 2.15 (Sporting Odds) BET 33 09.05pm Sun 10th COL @ SF - SF(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 2.1 (P.Power) BET 34 09.40pm Sun 10th LAD @ ARI - LAD to win 2pts @ 1.95 (P.Power)

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Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Its not one for the system but thought Id add opinions on Channel 5's game tonight. Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins. CWS have taken the 1st two games and have already claimed the series. Both these wins look like they could be credited to poor pitching on the Twins starters behalfs. Well tonight is a different prospect, tonight is Santana Time. Sanatna gave up 4 runs in the 1st inning of his season debut. He then though went on to retire 14 from 15 including the last 9 in a row. He gave up only 5 hits and scored 6 strikeouts over the whole 5 innings he pitched. He went on to claim his 14th consecutive win. Buehrle gave up 2 hits over 8 innings as CWS beat Cleveland 1-0. This is where the focus will be tonight. We could well have a classic pitcher's duel on our hands. The form suggest CWS but, unless the bullpen throw it away, that would mean Santana losing his streak. If you want to have a bet the unders is where to look but personally Under 7.5 @ around 1.8 is too close to the mark for me.

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Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Not too bad. Seeing how things are going Ill settle for 3 out of 5, still a profit on the night. The Florida pitching was consistent as ever but their batters went on a frenzy again and had me worried for a while after hitting a grandslam homer but luckily that was the last of the runs. BET 30 WAS 0 FLA 8(8) Returns: 3.60pts BET 31 CIN 2 HOU 5 Returns: 4.90pts BET 32 OAK 6 TB 1 Returns: 0pts BET 33 COL 4 SF 11 Returns: 4.20pts BET 34 LAD 4 ARI 5 Returns: 0pts Total Returns Today:12.70pts Todays Profit:2.70pts UPDATE Start Bank: 100pts Current Bank: 82.92pts Profit: -17.08pts Stakes: 68pts Av.Stake: 2pts Yield: -25.12% No. of bets:34 Winners:13 Losers:21 SR:38.24% Av.Odds:2.14 Every Sunday I will try to add an update from day 1, combining this season and last seasons figures. UPDATE FROM DAY 1 Start Bank: 100pts Current Bank: 178.35pts Profit: 78.35pts Stakes: 792pts Av.Stake: 2pts Yield: 9.89% No. of bets:396 Winners:239.5 Losers:156.5 SR:60.48% Av.Odds:1.84

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Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Anyone who decided to back the tip for the live game will know we just scrapped in. You would have been made to sweat though after 6 runs were scored after only the 3rd inning. Today sees a lot of sides playing their first home/away game of the season so Im going to try to tread lightly. After last nights game CWS have to travel 760 miles for a day game against CLE. This sort of trip is bound to have some kind of effect on them. The last thign they probably need is to face a youthful side like the Indians. Millwood takes the mound for the tribe and pitched 6 shoutout innings against the Sox last time out. First game at Fenway Park since winning the World Series for BOS. Before the game they will hold the ring ceremony. As small as it seems I think this could hold the key to the game. BOS are currently sitting bottom of the pile and have already given up 2 games to the Yankees. The giving of the rings may spark something inside them. Remind them why they're there and what they're playing for. The sides as ever are very equal but I think the ceremony plus being in front of their home fans may help respark the Bo Sox hunger. Ill be back later with a look at any of the night games. BET 35 08.05pm Mon 11th CWS @ CLE - CLE to win 2pts @ 1.86 (P.Power) BET 36 08.05pm Mon 11th NYY @ BOS - BOS to win 2pts @ 2.12 (SportingOdds) New Bank: 78.92pts

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Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Ive got two more for tonights games. WAS travel to ATL for what is now their 7th consecutive road game.ATL's Mike Hampton will be taking the mound and he's in fine form.He gave up 1 hit in 6 innings in his opener this season and has allowed just 5 runs in his last 37 1/2 innings. ATL have shown some good pitching but the run support has been somewhat lacking. Same could be said about FLA, until they hit WAS once for 8 and then once for 9. ARI are looking ok so far with a 3-3 record. 2 of those losses came against LAD where they could be considered unfortunate. COL are 1-4 with a 0-3 record on the road. ARI know that after this 3 game series they hit the road for 13 of their next 16 games. This means they'll know its important to get a result and hopefully set off on their trips with a record over .500. Halsey will be making his first start for the Diamondbacks after joining from NYY as part of the Johnson trade. He did feature against opening day though as reliefer giving 4 runs and 6 hits over 4 innings. Jennings didnt have the best of starts either givng up 6 runs and 7 hits in 4 innings in his season debut. Looking at his stats for last year he very much prefers it at home too, which makes me believe COL's away record wont be improving tonight. BET 37 00.35am Tues 12th WAS @ ATL - ATL(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 2.30 (W.Hills) BET 38 02.40am Tues 12th COL @ ARI - ARI to win 2pts @ 1.86 (W.Hills) New Bank: 74.92pts

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Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Three winners from four and a very tight game for the fourth. BET 35 CWS 2 CLE 1 Returns: 0pts BET 36 NYY1 BOS 8 Returns: 4.24pts BET 37 WAS 2 ATL 11 Returns: 4.60pts BET 38 COL 0 ARI 2 Returns: 3.72pts Total Returns Today:12.56pts Todays Profit:4.56pts UPDATE Start Bank: 100pts Current Bank: 87.48pts Profit: -12.52pts Stakes: 76pts Av.Stake: 2pts Yield: -16.47% No. of bets:38 Winners:16 Losers:22 SR:42.11% Av.Odds:2.13

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Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Just the two for tonight. ATL comfortably beat WAS yesterday and I see little reason why that should change tonight. Hudson had a good start statistically to his season but his control was a little wild. If he manages to get that sorted he's one of the best about and ATL should have this game. WAS have lost 3 from their last 4 whereas ATL's 5 wins have all come in their last 6. Both CIN and STL come into this game off the back of defeats. In fact 2 in a row for STL and 3 for CIN. Busch Stadium hasnt been kind to the Reds in the past. STL had the better of them 5-14 last year including 2-7 at Busch Stadium. Its also not the favourite hunting ground of CIN pitcher Aaron Harang who is 0-1 and 7.50 ERA in two starts there. BET 39 00.35am Weds 13th WAS @ ATL - ATL(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 2.00 (W.Hills) BET 40 01.10am Weds 13th CIN @ STL - STL(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 2.30 (W.Hills) New Bank: 83.48pts

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Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition BET 39 WAS 4 ATL 3 Returns: 0pts BET 40 CIN 1 STL 5 Returns: 4.60pts Total Returns Today:4.60pts Todays Profit:0.60pts UPDATE Start Bank: 100pts Current Bank: 88.08pts Profit: -11.92pts Stakes: 80pts Av.Stake: 2pts Yield: -14.90% No. of bets:40 Winners:17 Losers:23 SR:42.50% Av.Odds:2.13

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Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition SD face CHC twice today in a double header after yesterdays game was postponed due to rain. J.Peavy takes the mound for SD and he's one of the most promising prospects in the game. If he's on form that should be enough for SD to truimph, certainly shouldnt be odds against anyway. Ive backed ATL twice already in this series, proven right once and wrong once. Im going to make it a third time tonight. Thomson is pitching for ATL and he has a 9-1, 2.32 ERA in his last 16 starts going back to last years all star break. On top of that ATL are just too good, surely favourites to win the AL East for the 14th(I think) year running. CIN have now lost their last 4 and if Mulder improves on his last performance it could be 5. CIN were aiming on having R.Ortiz pitching against his former club but he continues to have troubles with his leg so rookie pitcher Belisle will make his ML debut. ARI have impressed me so far this year. They havnt trounced teams but theyve picked up wins which is more than can be said about them last season. All this and without the big unit there to pitch every other 5th game. Its teacher versus student tonight as Estes faces his former club for ARI. Francis takes the mound for COL and said that Estes was a great help to him last year when they were both at the rockies. I expect exerpience to get the upperhand tonight. COL are in a awful slump at the mo, losing all 6 of their games since their opening day win. Ill be back later with any bets for the night games. BET 41 06.05pm Weds 13th SD @ CHC - SD to win 2pts @ 2.10 (B365) BET 42 06.05pm Weds 13th WAS @ ATL - ATL(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 2.20 (W.Hills) BET 43 06.10pm Weds 13th CIN @ STL - STL(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 2.10 (Ladbrokes) BET 44 08.10pm Weds 13th COL @ ARI - ARI to win 2pts @ 1.80 (P.Power) New Bank: 80.08pts

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Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Tonights picks are all about starting pitchers. BOS have got Schilling taking the mound, who wouldve started opening day if he hadnt been on the DL. Now back and supposedly fully over his ankle injury that caused him so many problems during the world ser.......oh hang on , no it didnt, the Sox still beat them!! NYY have looked unorganised at times this season and unless they tighten up BOS could take advantage. After losing their first 5 games, NYM have won their last 2. They havnt come up against pitching quality of the likes of Clemens though. NYM actually have the better of Clemens throughout his career, probably one of very few teams to have, but he threw as well as ever in his opening game of the season and hopefully a quality show from him will be enough to see the Astros stay top of their division. Im taking the handicap on both bets as the both carry more than a 1/2 pt improvement. BET 45 00.05am Thurs 14th NYY @ BOS - BOS(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 2.45 (B365) BET 46 00.10am Thurs 14th HOU @ NYM - HOU(1.5) to win 2pts @ 2.4 (SportingBet) New Bank: 76.08pts

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Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition BET 41 SD 8 CHC 3 Returns: 4.20pts BET 42 WAS 11 ATL 4 Returns: 0pts BET 43 CIN 6 STL 5 Returns: 0pts BET 44 COL 2 ARI 5 Returns: 3.60pts BET 45 NYY 5 BOS 2 Returns: 0pts BET 46 HOU 0 NYM 1 (in 11) Returns: 0pts Total Returns Today:7.80pts Todays Profit:-4.20pts UPDATE Start Bank: 100pts Current Bank: 83.88pts Profit: -16.12pts Stakes: 92pts Av.Stake: 2pts Yield: -17.52% No. of bets:46 Winners:19 Losers:27 SR:41.30% Av.Odds:2.11

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Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Just one selection for tonight. CWS have got off to a great startt with a 6-2 record with wins in their last 2. CLE are 3-5 and still yet to win at home, they are currently 2 games without a win. CLE have seemed to have had problems scoring runs and those problems look to get worse as tonight they face "El Duque". Hernandez had a 8-2 record and 3.3 ERA over 15 starts for NYY last year. BET 467 00.05am Fri 15th CWS @ CLE - CWS to win 2pts @ 1.99 (SportingOdds) New Bank: 81.88pts

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Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition WFTE - Great to see you back on the baseball trip just catching up on your threads. April is always a slightly strange month in the season as often teams have new players and others take time to warmup. Look at the standings in the AL EAst right now ! By May pitchers have found there groove and you'll probably start to see results a bit more true to form ... of course as you know the key to baseball is streaks and like on the blackjack table you have to ride the hot streaks , pitchers etc I haven't placed a bet yet this season aside from some very small stakes world series longshots but expect i'll start in earnest this weekend. Looking forward to watching your success and hopefully sharing thoughts Btw - Any fancies this year for division titles ?

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Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Good to see you too Sherman. I wasnt expecting too much from the first month or so but thought Id still make picks so I could see where the turn occured for future seasons. Ill post later about thoughts on Division champs etc. Right, not much time so only brief summaries. Derek Lee is on fire for CHC with a .364 avg,11 RBI and 2 HR in 9 games. Zambrano is pitching for CHC and went 5-0 with a 1.02 ERA against PIT last year. MIN are on a 4 game winning streak. Santana pitching who is on a personal 15 winning game streak dating back to last seasons all star game. Several of the Twins hitters have good career records against Westbrook. FLA's starter Beckett is 2-0 this season and hasnt given up a run. He's given 7 hits and 4 walks over 15 innings whilst striking out 17. NYM are on a 4 game winning streak but FLA have won their last 2 also and Beckett is looking like a machine right now. COL have now last their last 7 straight although 6 of these were away from home. Noah Lowry, who takes the mound for SF, has never recorded a loss in his 15 starts in the Major League. SF 3rd baseman Alfonzo is heading the Major Leagues hitting charts with a 16 for 31 record(.516) Derek Lowe is after his 1st win since joining the Dodgers. His figures arent too bad though. He gave up 8 hits and 3 runs over 8 innings in his seasonal start but got little run support, followed by 4 hits and 3 runs in 4 innings against ARI where he got a no decision. SD have only managed 20 runs in 8 games(2.5 runs per game) BET 48 00.05am Sat 16th CHC @ PIT - CHC(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 2.20 (W.Hills) BET 49 00.05am Sat 16th MIN @ CLE - MIN(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 2.05 (W.Hills) BET 50 00.10am Sat 16th FLA @ NYM - FLA(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 2.05 (W.Hills) BET 51 00.10am Sat 16th FLA @ NYM - Under 7.5 runs 2pts @ 2.00 (W.Hills) BET 52 01.35am Sat 16th SF @ COL - SF to win 2pts @ 1.90 (W.Hills) BET 53 03.40am Sat 16th SD @ LAD - LAD(-1.5) to win 2pts @ 2.75 (B365) New Bank: 68.08pts

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Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition The handicap denied us in the MIN game. Kind of fortunate with the unders in the Florida game, although comfortably winning it was the Mets supplying the runs and shutting out the Marlins, rather than the anticipated other way round. BET 48 CHC 5 PIT 8 Returns: 0pts BET 49 MIN 3 CLE 2 Returns: 0pts BET 50 FLA 0 NYM 4 Returns: 0pts BET 51 FLA 0 NYM 4(4) Returns: 4.00pts BET 52 SF 13 COL 6 Returns: 3.80pts BET 53 SD 0 LAD 4 Returns: 5.50pts Total Returns Today:13.70pts Todays Profit:1.70pts UPDATE Start Bank: 100pts Current Bank: 83.58pts Profit: -16.42pts Stakes: 106pts Av.Stake: 2pts Yield: -15.49% No. of bets:53 Winners:22 Losers:31 SR:40.51% Av.Odds:2.08

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Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition Two quick picks for the earlier games as I wont be about beforehand. FLA's pitching has looked very effective so far this season. They go up against NYM's No.1 Pedro Martinez. Low scoring game. NYY's hitters have been in a slump big time whereas the Orioles have hit 51 runs in their last 7 games. Lopez has allowed 1 run in 14 innings so far for BAL. BET 54 06.10pm Sat 16th FLA @ NYM - Under 7.5 runs 2pts @ 1.85 (Betfair a.c.) BET 55 09.35pm Sat 16th NYY @ BAL - BAL to win 2pts @ 2.08 (Betfair a.c.) New Bank: 79.58pts

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Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition HI, I was following your last year thread with great interest and I will be doing it this season as well. I am sure you will end up with big plus. Do you follow Professionalgambler.com? Have you read handicapping methods of McCune, Miller and other guys promoted at this site? Good Luck! (even if it does not exist)

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