WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Yep, its finally here. Its that time off year again. Staying up until 5am every night watching the ball game. Waiting for Wednesday and Sunday nights to join Johnny Gould and co on Ch5. Thats it, Sunday sees the start of the 2005 MLB season. As last year I plan to run a thread including my betting selections. As there are no strict rules to the picks I guess its a free-style system. This year I intend to play more bets on the handicap. The reason for this is unlike NFL,NBAetc the bookies give a 1.5 run handicap and adjust the odds to this , rather than find a pts difference that makes each team equal odds. I feel a 1.5 run handicap means very little in baseball. The only wiining straight bet that loses on the handicap is a 1 run win or a draw, and with the draw you still have the possibility of getting your bet in in extra innings. Quite often the handicap price can change a game from 1/2 to 4/5 or the likes. This difference in price will be what decides whether I play the game on the handicap or not. As last year, I will be employing a level stakes strategy of 2 pts per bet. Going by last year's records and the prices involved it would probably be safe to play higher stakes, maybe upto 5% of the bank. The reason I am sticking to 2pts per bet is as I intend to run a regular update for this season, starting with a 100pt bank, as well as an update for the system as a whole(including last years records). For this reason its fair to keep the staking the same. This is how the system stood at the end of last season: Start Bank: 100pts Current Bank: 195.43pts Profit: 95.43pts Stakes: 724pts Av.Stake: 2pts Yield: 13.18% No. of bets:362 Winners:226.5 Losers:135.5 SR:62.57% Av.Odds:1.82 As for all sports, a word of warning for the first week or so of the season. As we all know from the football, predictions are alot easier once form has been established and the season has settled a little. I will run picks from the start but if you're going to follow Id tread lighter to start with. With that all said I'll see you all back here Sunday for the opening game of the season, Boston Redsox @ New York Yankees. This game should probably be left alone but Im sure I'll find something, be it wise or not. PS. For those that missed last seasons thread or wish to refer back to it here is the link http://www.punterslounge.com/showthread.php?t=6697&page=1&pp=20&highlight=baseball PPS. For those wishing to follow my tips but would like to know more about the game, or for those that simply want to learn more about baseball, I have posted a guide in the Other Sports forum http://www.punterslounge.com/showthread.php?t=13985

[mr onemore]

Re: WFTE's Baseball - 2005 edition I read your guide last night - learnt a lot, knowing very little about how the stats are compiled - nice explanations:) That's an amazing record last year, very impressive - I'll certainly be calling in here on a regular basis to check out your selections. Good luck with this :ok