Onemore ODI Cricket System

[mr onemore]

Have spent the last couple of days looking at the One-Day International Cricket scene. There are just 11 teams, all facing each other quite regularly, and over 100 ODI matches a year. The fact that there are no draws but just decisive results is also a positive feature. The weather also does not play anything like the role that it does in Test Matches. The games are quite well spread - an all year round prospect - and there is plenty of time to look in detail at each match. All in all, it seems a sport very well suited to a bit of analysis. A trawl of the 'net shows some very primitive ratings systems presently in use. One of the most basic is actually used by the ICC - they are actually using the good old British Chess Federations ratings system developed in the days before calculators were around. I'm not a big cricket fan, but a look at cricket web-sites shows some of the cricket experts also question it's rankings...It's also not a great system for betting methods. Anyway - I've used the past data and come up with what I believe to be a very good model - in fact it looks very promising. The model predicts odds, and so highlights any value deemed to be around. With over ten tears of data analysed, it has a flat rate at predicting the winner of a match of 68%. One thing I've not been able to do is test the model on a databank of Bookies odds. If anyone has collected any past bookies data I'd be extremely interested in seeing it :D It's purely on mathematical grounds and judgement that I believe the model is worth following. It's a bit of a challenge to myself - see if I can use some know-how to make a profit in a sport I only know fairly little about. Another reason I'm posting this up on PL is so any cricket fans here - Swooperman and others, get on this please:ok - can comment on the numbers and perhaps explain why the odds available are as they are. Anyway, on to the first match - India v Pakistan starting Saturday, where there looks to be some great value thrown up...

[mr onemore]