BBOTD Monday 3rd March

[Lodge]

2.40 - Kempton - Darnathean 1pt @ 12/1 Paddypower Interesting little race, i’ve gone for Darnathean who in my opinion has been running over slightly insufficient trips of late. He ran his best race for a while over 10f at this course a few outings ago but has been racing back over 6/7f since. He was an eye-catcher in a messy race last time at Lingfield, where he was caught way too far back going into the final couple of furlongs like most of the field. Despite being taken wide he made up tons of ground in the final furlong or so to finish a 2L 4th (recorded quickest final furlong time). He steps back up to 1m tomorrow and that should be a more suitable trip in my opinion, he has won over the distance before and Kempton is the only AW track he has won at. He looks rather well handicapped on the best of his 2013 form too. Having won off a 4lb higher mark in June and also finishing a neck 2nd off an 11lb higher mark the following month. This looks to be marginally weaker than some of the races he has been competing and i expect this to help his chances too. Jockey booking can be seen as a positive also. Sean Levey rides and he’s had 2 winner from his 5 rides for this yard in the past year. at a double figure price he looks worthy of a bet in my opinion. The main danger will probably be Spirit Of Gondree who was 2nd over C&D on Weds, he would have gone even closer with a clear run so must be respected. On a side note i did also consider Gabrials Wawa who is also looking attractively handicapped. I felt he showed signs of potential comeback on his first start for his new yard last time, and didn’t looks to be given the hardest of times by his jockey. He’s back over a C&D where his record is 1/1 and is 13lb below his last winning mark (less than 1 year ago), he looks like a horse that will be gambled on very soon imo.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Monday 3rd March Kempton 3:45 Adam Kirby is 6 wins from 17 rides when he rides for Jeremy Gask here at Kempton so it is clearly a profitable partnership and the form Kirby has been in the last 12 months, this horse Nelson Quay looks a big price at 10/1 especially with a lovely draw in Stall 2. This is still a very lightly raced 4 year old gelding having only had 8 runs and although he has not won yet he has dropped to a mark of 68. He didn't run too bad over 6f here at Kempton last time out, finishing a 5 length 5th behind Ex Ex and the extra distance is definitely going to suit. His best ever run came over course and distance when he was 2nd in a maiden here and with cheekpieces on tomorrow it could aid the cause. Nelson Quay WIN @ 10/1 Paddy Power