Why are Shots on Target stats more profitable on Euro and International games?

[MPLouis]

I often collect my own 'shots on target' stats for football. Recently I've been collecting these for - Premiership Championship League One League Two Conference Premier Champions League Europa League Mens European Internationals (excluding friendlies) Womens European Internationals (excluding friendlies) It involves quite a bit of work and simple maths, but it can be a useful guide to value, and has proven to be profitable sometimes. Recently, I've noticed a trend - it seems to be more profitable on Champions League, Europa League and Internationals than on domestic football. I'm not sure why this is. Does anyone have any ideas?

[aldebaran]

Re: Why are Shots on Target stats more profitable on Euro and International games? Maybe because at the highest level the quality of finishing is such that goal probability more closely tracks the number of shots on target? I agree that this is generally a very useful stat to look at and have noticed that this, along with other match stats, provide decreasing insight into value as you drop down the English leagues. Presumably you are aware that you can access ready-compiled spreadsheets of recent and historic shots data for the top European leagues and all English divisions for free from a well known website? I'd be very interested in getting shots data for European, internationals and some other leagues like the Dutch and Belgian top divisions and the MLS. At the risk of taking your thread off-topic, any idea on where to maybe get this? How much time do you have to put in yourself to compile your database? Data entry can be mind-numbing and I personally don't have the time to collect data from match reports as well as analyse it so hats off to anyone who can.