MPLouis Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I often collect my own 'shots on target' stats for football. Recently I've been collecting these for - Premiership Championship League One League Two Conference Premier Champions League Europa League Mens European Internationals (excluding friendlies) Womens European Internationals (excluding friendlies) It involves quite a bit of work and simple maths, but it can be a useful guide to value, and has proven to be profitable sometimes. Recently, I've noticed a trend - it seems to be more profitable on Champions League, Europa League and Internationals than on domestic football. I'm not sure why this is. Does anyone have any ideas? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Re: Why are Shots on Target stats more profitable on Euro and International games? Maybe because at the highest level the quality of finishing is such that goal probability more closely tracks the number of shots on target? I agree that this is generally a very useful stat to look at and have noticed that this, along with other match stats, provide decreasing insight into value as you drop down the English leagues. Presumably you are aware that you can access ready-compiled spreadsheets of recent and historic shots data for the top European leagues and all English divisions for free from a well known website? I'd be very interested in getting shots data for European, internationals and some other leagues like the Dutch and Belgian top divisions and the MLS. At the risk of taking your thread off-topic, any idea on where to maybe get this? How much time do you have to put in yourself to compile your database? Data entry can be mind-numbing and I personally don't have the time to collect data from match reports as well as analyse it so hats off to anyone who can. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted March 1, 2014 Author Share Posted March 1, 2014 Re: Why are Shots on Target stats more profitable on Euro and International games? Maybe because at the highest level the quality of finishing is such that goal probability more closely tracks the number of shots on target? I agree that this is generally a very useful stat to look at and have noticed that this' date=' along with other match stats, provide decreasing insight into value as you drop down the English leagues[/quote'] Actually I haven't found this. For the 5 top English divisions I find shots on target figures seem to be of roughly the same value throughout the 5. One week, the Premier League games highlighted might be profitable, and the next week the League One games for example. I haven't noticed any consistent pattern or variation or difference. Where I HAVE found a difference is between English leagues and Champions League/Europa League/Internationals. 'Football data' - yes I know - I'm sure it as been referred to regularly by posters on Punters Lounge, I think the owners of the site use it too and don't mind anyone mentioning it. I manually type the numbers up from uefa.com - uefa publish them for Champions League, Europa League and competitive internationals. Belgian, Dutch and MLS I'm not sure about, but I do know that these stats are increasingly available. Another source is soccerway.com which seems to show shots on target for a lot of games now, although they are sometimes inaccurate, but still very useful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Re: Why are Shots on Target stats more profitable on Euro and International games? Actually I haven't found this. For the 5 top English divisions I find shots on target figures seem to be of roughly the same value throughout the 5. One week' date=' the Premier League games highlighted might be profitable, and the next week the League One games for example. I haven't noticed any consistent pattern or variation or difference. Where I HAVE found a difference is between English leagues and Champions League/Europa League/Internationals.[/quote'] What I was trying to say (may be not very well!) was that I have found more variability than anything else in lower leagues but agree there is value there if you look at these kind of stats. As I haven't looked at European and Internationals I can't really comment but it is really interesting to know there may be added value here. Thanks for this.:ok I'll take a look. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.