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Gift Watch, 12 bets, -43.2% yield - DISCONTINUED


MPLouis

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I've been thinking about this for a while after noticing how often so-called 'free money' or 'nailed on' bets lose. I'm pretty sure there is value in opposing these, and this system is designed to prove whether I'm right or not. The idea is that if someone (or preferably more than one person) thinks a bet is 'free money' there is a good chance that other people think this as well, and that the popular backing of this bet reduces the odds by enough to make it good value to oppose it. A recent example was West Brom v Chelsea on Wednesday 12th February, when The Metro's 'Tipster' said: "It doesn’t need a rocket scientist to work out who will win this game", suggesting that Chelsea were almost guaranteed to win, and recommending backing Chelsea HT/FT ... http://metro.co.uk/2014/02/10/the-tipster-chelsea-can-extend-their-lead-at-the-top-of-the-premier-league-with-victory-at-west-brom-4298433/ Best odds on Chelsea to win were 1.53 with sbobet. Chelsea were 1.48 with Betfair and you could have laid them on Betfair at around 1.49 (equivalent to backing the West Brom or Draw at around 3.0, less a bit for Betfair commission) ... http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/england/premier-league-2013-2014/west-brom-chelsea-QcUTlOIL/#1X2;2 The result was 1-1, so the 'doesn't take a rocket scientist' idea would have lost and you would have nearly trebled your money by opposing it. Starting bank: 100 points Level stakes: 2 points per bet

Edited by MPLouis
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