Big Underdogs and Table Position

[allthethings]

I thought I'd write up some of my stats on big underdogs (defined here as any underdog to a side the odds on whom are under 2.0) after West Brom came back to take a point off Chelsea at home yesterday. The question: Is it better to back a large underdog against the top one, two, three or four sides, or play on underdogs when the matchup seems a bit more reasonable: say, the bottom side home against the 7th-place side? Don't expect anything definitive; just food for thought. Two caveats: It varies by league, and the biggest weakness of this approach is halfway through the season you don't know what teams will end up top, or bottom. In any case, I found it interesting. Here's a trivia question for you: In Premier at this point in the season, which Premier teams have the best record as a big favorite away? The answer: Tottenham (5-0-0), Arsenal 6-2-0, and Man U (6-1-1), currently 5th, 2nd and 7th. The other top teams? Man City, 6-3-3; Chelsea 4-0-2; Liverpool 3-2-1. Everton, the top-but-not-top team, are 0-3-0. The top four are 19-7-6, meaning they lose 19% of these games and draw 22%. The rest of the Premier are 11-4-1 (draw 25%, lose 6%). Looking at the underdogs, West Brom are 0-3-1 against big underdogs...that's an anomaly in this league, this season. The rest of the bottom-of-the-table sides are 2-2-13. What about other leagues? Here are two that I follow. In Eredivisie, big underdogs are 12-11-15 this season. When they face the top two teams, Ajax and Twente, they are 2-6-8. That's not a lot of straight wins, but pretty decent, actually. Against third-place Feyenoord, 3-2-2, but against 4th-place Vitesse, 1-2-2. A 6-10-12 record against the top four is pretty good. Against other teams, the dogs are even better, 6-1-3. What's really striking in Holland is that the bottom sides are as good if not better big underdogs than mid-table sides. The bottom six clubs in Eredivisie are 8-4-10 at home against big favorites; the rest of the league is 4-7-5...a lot of good results, but more draws than wins. In Ekstraklasa, big underdogs have gone 6-3-5 at home against the top four sides, 1-2-0 in the other three matchups. This is a league in which anybody can beat anybody. The two clearest bottom sides have gone 2-3-1 as a big underdog at home (the other 14 sides are a combined 5-2-4). What to draw from this? Maybe nothing. I would say that table position won't tell you much where upsets are concerned. In these three leagues, there are only a few dire sides at home against good-to-very-good opposition (Fulham 0-0-4, Sunderland 1-0-5, Cambuur 0-0-3). In general, the odds reflect table position to an almost absurd degree...there's value to be had on these matches.

[abigail]

Re: Big Underdogs and Table Position

I thought I'd write up some of my stats on big underdogs (defined here as any underdog to a side the odds on whom are under 2.0) after West Brom came back to take a point off Chelsea at home yesterday. The question: Is it better to back a large underdog against the top one, two, three or four sides, or play on underdogs when the matchup seems a bit more reasonable: say, the bottom side home against the 7th-place side? Don't expect anything definitive; just food for thought. Two caveats: It varies by league, and the biggest weakness of this approach is halfway through the season you don't know what teams will end up top, or bottom. In any case, I found it interesting. Here's a trivia question for you: In Premier at this point in the season, which Premier teams have the best record as a big favorite away? The answer: Tottenham (5-0-0), Arsenal 6-2-0, and Man U (6-1-1), currently 5th, 2nd and 7th. The other top teams? Man City, 6-3-3; Chelsea 4-0-2; Liverpool 3-2-1. Everton, the top-but-not-top team, are 0-3-0. The top four are 19-7-6, meaning they lose 19% of these games and draw 22%. The rest of the Premier are 11-4-1 (draw 25%, lose 6%). Looking at the underdogs, West Brom are 0-3-1 against big underdogs...that's an anomaly in this league, this season. The rest of the bottom-of-the-table sides are 2-2-13. What about other leagues? Here are two that I follow. In Eredivisie, big underdogs are 12-11-15 this season. When they face the top two teams, Ajax and Twente, they are 2-6-8. That's not a lot of straight wins, but pretty decent, actually. Against third-place Feyenoord, 3-2-2, but against 4th-place Vitesse, 1-2-2. A 6-10-12 record against the top four is pretty good. Against other teams, the dogs are even better, 6-1-3. What's really striking in Holland is that the bottom sides are as good if not better big underdogs than mid-table sides. The bottom six clubs in Eredivisie are 8-4-10 at home against big favorites; the rest of the league is 4-7-5...a lot of good results, but more draws than wins. In Ekstraklasa, big underdogs have gone 6-3-5 at home against the top four sides, 1-2-0 in the other three matchups. This is a league in which anybody can beat anybody. The two clearest bottom sides have gone 2-3-1 as a big underdog at home (the other 14 sides are a combined 5-2-4). What to draw from this? Maybe nothing. I would say that table position won't tell you much where upsets are concerned. In these three leagues, there are only a few dire sides at home against good-to-very-good opposition (Fulham 0-0-4, Sunderland 1-0-5, Cambuur 0-0-3). In general, the odds reflect table position to an almost absurd degree...there's value to be had on these matches.

Thank you for starting this thread.I'll keep a close eye on this thread,anything which is related underdogs always grabs my attention,although I've never been able to understand which team is a favouriteand which team is an underdog.As for me I can't tell the difference.