Any opinions?

[Rob]

Morning Gents/Ladies, First up, I apologise if this is covered somwhere else, I've just been too lazy to check. I was reading about a system for finding value in the correct scores market yesterday and wondered if anyone had experiance of using it. Basically it involves using a poisson distribution to determine the probability of each team scoring a particular number of goals. All you need is the mean number of goals you would expect a team to score in the game. It reccomends using reliable spread prices to determine the mean no of goals for each team. e.g. Say for Man Utd vs Arsenal the spread for total goals is 1.95-2.05, and the spread for Man Utd supremecy is 0.45-0.55. In this case it would be fair to assume that the 'mean' score would be Man Utd 1.25 Arsenal 0.75 (ie total goals 2, with man u scoring 0.5 more than the arse). So, in excel if the mean score for Man U is 1.25 you can plot a poisson distribution to tell you the probability of them scoring 1, 2, 3 etc goals. You do the same for Arsenal, then multiply the probabilities together to get the probability of a particular score. You then convert the probability to odds, and find a bookie that will give you higher than your calculated odds, then bobs your uncle. Now generally speaking, I'm not a fan of these 'non-football' methods, but I can see the logic behind this. I can also see limitations, such as why do you trust spread prices over fixed odds? and the fact that the no. of goals scored by each team is not independant any thoughts welcome :ok

[Rob]

Re: Any opinions? Come on! somebody must have seen this before No response today and I'll have to test it out on here