TazaD Posted March 29, 2005 Share Posted March 29, 2005 Seattle +3 League: 9-2-1 (10-2 this no...Av. WIN 7.2!) away 4- dog, 1 day off 4- SU loss as home 5+ fav. [seattle] 7-1 SU (Av. WIN 11.0!!) if opp last away. Seattle: 17-6-1 (Av. WIN 0.4) away dog, if opp away -> home with no rest. (2-0 SU this season @ Denv and Min) Seattle actually have a better record on the road than at home (24-9 SU), and are 12-4 ats away v. >.500 teams this season. The Sonics won 93-84 @ Memphis in their first meeting this season, and shot only 40.8%...In fact, they have won their last 4 @ Memphis and are 8-2 ats in the last 10 meetings. Memphis just aren't scoring enough atm (91 ppg in their last 5) to keep up with Seattle in this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mpok Posted March 29, 2005 Share Posted March 29, 2005 Re: NBA Tuesday Great pick Taz, i think/hope so. Was looking for this post to ask you about it myself SEATTLE is 23-10 against the spread versus MEMPHIS since 1996 SEATTLE is 29-4 straight up against MEMPHIS since 1996 Seattle is off a loss against Washington and have a great record on the road this season. One question, why is the line moving, opened at -2 now at -4, any info? over 184 is not a bad play as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted March 29, 2005 Share Posted March 29, 2005 Re: NBA Tuesday Seattle now +4, easily available, also as high as 1.97 @ Pinnacle. Good luck, Taz.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted March 29, 2005 Author Share Posted March 29, 2005 Re: NBA Tuesday Lewis is a game-time decision with a bruised foot, mpok. I wouldn't be surprised if he sits tonight so he can play tomorrow night against SA, which now becomes a pretty crucial game. I'd definately hold off playing the over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mpok Posted March 29, 2005 Share Posted March 29, 2005 Re: NBA Tuesday With the injury to Duncan, the importance of the game has been somewhat diminished. GL to all of you playing this game, staying away from nba for tonight (for now) Any opion from NY/LA over? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runtcrab Posted March 30, 2005 Share Posted March 30, 2005 Re: NBA Tuesday Great call on Seattle taza :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldbigead Posted March 30, 2005 Share Posted March 30, 2005 Re: NBA Tuesday Great pick Taz, i think/hope so. Was looking for this post to ask you about it myself SEATTLE is 23-10 against the spread versus MEMPHIS since 1996 SEATTLE is 29-4 straight up against MEMPHIS since 1996 Seattle is off a loss against Washington and have a great record on the road this season. One question, why is the line moving, opened at -2 now at -4, any info? over 184 is not a bad play as wellI know we've had this before, but stats dating back to 1996 are of no relevance. If you follow these type of stats you'll end up in the poor house. Not one single player on either team would still exist. Infact if you go back even four years probably only one player exists now. Memphis didn't even have a team in 1996. Stats are only relevant if they're recent. Much more than a season back and they're useless. Even last years stats only have relevance if same core group of players exist, same coach exists, and the teams still play the same style of basketball. Discuss. :D . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sani Posted March 30, 2005 Share Posted March 30, 2005 Re: NBA Tuesday First of all congratulations Taz. And second, i couldn't agree more with you oldbigead. Who gives a sh.. about the fact that Payton, Schrempf, Kemp, Hawkins, and McMillan were able to defeat a team with Btyant 'Big Country' Reeves at center. I'm not really into football that much but i guess saying QPR (or some other team with strong history that's not doing so well now) is a favourite against Chelsea makes as much sense as saying Sonics defeated Grizzlies in '96. Just to add on to what oldbigead said once again. Can you compare this years Fakers and Heat to what ther were last year? It was just one trade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted March 30, 2005 Share Posted March 30, 2005 Re: NBA Tuesday Good tipping, Taz.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted March 30, 2005 Author Share Posted March 30, 2005 Re: NBA Tuesday My opinion on team trends is pretty much the same, oldbigead....I actually think it's got more to do with the coach than the players, but either way you're right. My league trends I do have faith in tho, because I believe they show bookie 'mistakes' rather than a way a team plays.....but I've discussed that 1000 times before! :D A team will sometimes 'own' a team tho, for long periods (in all sports). It is strange, and a lot of time there is no great reason for it?...Maybe is goes further than players and the coach...maybe it goes all the way to the GM/owner who (for example) likes a fast athletic team, and so has never gone out to get a big, power forward...or prefers his team to be old school tight defensively, rather than a run/gun high flying offense? Dunno. Interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sani Posted March 30, 2005 Share Posted March 30, 2005 Re: NBA Tuesday Taz, your league trends don't go 10 years back, so i think they really make sense, although i'm not that much of a 'stats man' when it comes to tipping. As long as you know which trends to look at, and you obviously do, it is a good method. Keep it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted March 30, 2005 Author Share Posted March 30, 2005 Re: NBA Tuesday They do actually, Sani...1995! ;) :lol Just thought that maybe, despite draft picks, salary caps, free trade and all the rest of it, it still takes more than the 2-3 years everyone expects to turn a franchise around? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldbigead Posted March 30, 2005 Share Posted March 30, 2005 Re: NBA Tuesday Just a quick query about your stats Taz. I realise they're general league ten year trends....but say for instance this year the officials are calling the games very differently from before (alot stricter on touch fouls for instance), do you then have to alter your old stats by a couple of points to account for this? If not then it's surely like comparing chalk and cheese? It's almost like two different games. If the league officials called the games the same as last year for example it's unlikely that the Suns would have such a strong record this year. How do you adapt/interpret your stats to account for this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted March 30, 2005 Share Posted March 30, 2005 Re: NBA Tuesday I guess Taz can speak for himself, so there's no real need for me to reply.;) But if I understand his use of stats correctly, he identifies patterns of recent results that have historically caused the bookies (or general public) to overestimate or underestimate a team's chances. So if there's a change in refereeing standards from one season to the next, that will have affected the recent results as much as the current game, and there's no reason to suppose that this will affect whether or not the team is over/underestimated. Right, Taz? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted March 31, 2005 Author Share Posted March 31, 2005 Re: NBA Tuesday Absolutely spot on, slapdash. :D Could not have said it batter myself. (Really!) It's all about how teams are over/under-estimated because of their recent/previous game(s). What you say is possibly right, oldbigead, because I've noticed strong totals just don't work!...But to me (and my historic trends ;)) it doesn't matter if a team loses by 5 (120-115) or loses by 5 (89-84) And, as I've said before, they are never going to (nor do I expect them to) be right every game....To me it's all about the %'s. If I bet on a winning situation, it will win more times than it loses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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