JoBurg Open - 6-9 Feb

[kevshat]

The European Tour is back in Africa this week after the Desert Swing. All things Joburg in here :ok

[RussP]

Re: JoBurg Open - 6-9 Feb A monster field of average quality. Whilst Schwartzel, Sterne & Coetzee have solid claims, I can't be backing any at the price, especially with the indifferent weather forecasts in an event played at 2 courses. This, however, normally goes to one of the better fancied players so I will be including some of better quality players in my calculations, albeit at slightly longer prices. My 4 against the field are: T.Aiken to win Joburg Open, 2.5pts EW @ 22/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1-5) South Africans normally hold sway in this event but that's normally represented in the market. However, I'm taking Aiken as my token native. He didn't play last week in Dubai but a pair of T20's in the 2 Desert Swing events he did play is solid form indeed. Not only is he in good form so far this term, he's also one of the higher ranked players in the event, now 127 in the world. Hasn't quite got over the line here in Joburg but 3rd & 6th finishes in 2 of the last 3 years confirm his ability to perform across the 2 track events in the native homeland. The main attribute needed here is GIR, as hitting those greens is key to the many birdie opportunities needed to win here, with a score around -20 normally needed to win. Ranked inside the top 15 for GIR in each of his last 5 starts is great ball striking & he's the one most likely to take advantage if the big 3 fail to deliver. D.Willett to win Joburg Open, 2.5pts EW @ 28/1 Paddy Power (1/4 odds 1-5) Of the non South Africans, I fancy the Englishman to be the biggest danger. He's been threatening a win for a while now, with consistent results of 9-19-43-13 in his 4 starts so far this season. This is notably easier than the 3 Desert Swing events so should be one of the main players here, based on recent form. Missed the cut here last season but 2 4th place finishes in the previous 4 years, as well as a further top 15, is as good as it gets for the Europeans. Likes South Africa with 6 top 20's in his last 7 appearances in the country, 4 of which have been top 10's. Just outside the top 100 in the world now, a win here will see him break into the world's elite. Has been hitting his irons as well as anyone during the Desert Swing, 4-15-4 for GIR. Always a player I like to keep on side when low scoring is expected, Willett must see this as his best chance of a win so far this year. E.Grillo to win Joburg Open, 1pt EW @ 66/1 BetVictor (1/4 odds 1-5) E.Grillo top 10 finish, 3pts @ 13/2 Boylesports A rapidly improving player, Emiliano Grillo is the expected to be the next big thing to come out of Argentina, Messi apart. Already inside the top 150 in the world, Grillo will be brimming with confidence after a stunning 2nd place finish in Dubai last week. 4th & 6th place finishes towards the end of 2013, in the Italian Open & JW Championship respectively, put him firmly on my radar and I think now's the time to strike. Gutted I missed him last week but it proves that the potential is there and a repeat of that performance will see him go very close in this weaker event. Excellent with the irons, ranking 1st last week for GIR & that's not uncommon (check out his 4 event form from the JW to Italian last year, 3-1-2-1). Is well capable of going low if the putter warms up, he'll come here in better heart than many so the 66's on him looks a good few points too big which can only be based on previous Joburg form. That's something I'm prepared to ignore as I feel his career is on a sharp upward curve. Magnus A Carlsson to win Joburg Open, 1pt EW @ 80/1 BetVictor (1/4 odds 1-5) Magnus A Carlsson top 10 finish, 3pts @ 7/1 Boylesports I like the lesser fancied of the 2 Carlsson's here. Has played pretty well here including his best ever finish on tour, a 2nd place in the 2008 renewal of this event. 3 top 10's in his last 7 starts in South Africa, which makes the 7/1 on a repeat look too big. I've already talked up the ability of hitting your irons well & Magnus A Carlsson is the man to follow if that's the key stat. In 5 starts this year, GIR rank of 13-1-13-1-3 cannot be beaten, the last 3 of those being the Desert Swing events. Has made every cut so far this year & has twice finished inside the top 10 (Alfred Dunhill & Qatar). At 80's, he's well worth the risk.