What's your edge, and how do you turn it into profit?

[MPLouis]

(Note: I am posting in Systems and Strategy as I think it's the best place ...) What's your betting 'edge'? How do you turn your edge into profit? I'm quickly coming to the conclusion that, for me at least, the first key to profitable betting is finding an edge and backing it. For example, if I know a team very well, I can expect to do better backing them than backing teams in general, and I can expect to do better than 'the market' (everyone else, punters and bookies, backers and layers). It's obvious really, but actually harder to do in practice. (Of course, it's a mistake to just look at one team in a match, you really need to look at both teams, and try to work out they will match up against each other.) I've started noting down where my 'edge' is, and trying to concentrate on finding bets that I have an edge on. I think I have an edge in these areas (all on football) - 1. Derbies, esp lower league UK ones 2. Womens football 3. Late underdog comebacks 4. Corners I am finding that the other essential ingredient to making money is 'discipline'. I tend to have far too many bets on too many football matches and markets. Sometimes I stand back and look at what I bet on in a day, or analyse my bets, and it's clear that perhaps only 10% or fewer of the bets were on markets where I really believed that I had an edge. The others are just on anything that I think looks like a good bet at the time. For example, team A is beating team B 3-0 at half time, so I might be on them to score more goals in the second half. Or team B hasn't had a shot on target, so I back team A to keep a clean sheet for the rest of the game. It's a bit like going into a supermarket knowing that I want some milk, bread and cheese, and ending up buying a whole basket of things that looked good when I saw them. I suppose I'm just emphasising that I don't think 'having an edge' or several edges over the market is enough ... you have to find a profitable way of using it if you want to make money. Another analogy about a betting edge would be to compare it with having a talent for, say, football. Say to be brilliant at heading the ball. But even if you are - you have to work hard and apply yourself in all sorts of other areas to make a real success of it. Practice, physical training, learning how to play in a team etc ... So, I was wondering ... 1. What's your 'edge' (or edges)? 2. How (if at all) do you turn your edge into profit? :)

[MPLouis]

Re: What's your edge, and how do you turn it into profit? A one-off bump to see if anyone would like to comment :)

[Old Big Head]

Re: What's your edge, and how do you turn it into profit? Having an edge is just consistently being able to estimate the true odds better than the person offering them. As you say it'd hard to find and edge on so many markets so stick to one area or sport where you can keep tabs on all the information and become an expert. You on;y need one edge so I would stick with one of those 4 you mention that you enjoy the most. This way you'll be more motivated to do the research. Ask yourself what percentage chance you think a bet has and then do 100 divide by this number. This will give you your odds. e.g. You think a bet has 80% chance of winning so 100/80 = 1.25 and if you can find 1.3+ happy days, it's a bet! :) Make your stake small enough so that you can withstand a long losing streak. You will usually need to be able to afford to make a bet of the same stake at least 20 times i.e so only use 5% of your betting bank. Keeping it simple is the best approach. Also remember that when you have an edge you will still encounter losses and losing streaks so try not to analyse too much in the short term.