Super 12 Round 5

[Citizen Kane]

Small round over Easter with four teams having a bye. Hurricanes v Stormers 1.55 2.35 4.5pts Cats v Highlanders 2.35 1.55 4.5 Waratahs v Bulls 1.22 4.00 11.5 Sharks v Brumbies 3.30 1.30 9.5 Like the look of all the underdogs on the margin but am leaving the Hurricanes game, just too unpredictable what team will turn up for me. 2pts Cats +4.5 @ 1.87 2pts Bulls +11.5 @ 1.87 2pts Sharks + 9.5 @ 1.87 Good luck to all Cheers CK

[Citizen Kane]

Review of First 4 Rounds A few thoughts on the teams after 4 rounds in order they are currently on the table. Waratahs – 4 wins but until they beat the Stormers last week had only played teams I thought would finish in the bottom half of the table and still do. They will go close to top 4 but still may just miss IMO. Brumbies – 4w as expected but what makes it more impressive is they have managed this with players in key positions out injured. Excellent squad depth has been confirmed and should make the final. Crusaders – 3w with only loss to Brumbies in round one. Looking ominous and like the Brumbies appear to have good squad depth although not yet tested. Even at this early stage looks like a Crusaders/Brumbies final again. Hurricanes – 3w which had many predicting a top 4 finish for them. But under closer inspection these three wins are against teams I thought would be fighting out the bottom 4 positions. Even so three on the road is a good effort but will need to bounce back quickly after dropping a home game to the Bulls who will be contesting a midtable postion with them. Still a lot of “big” teams left to play and I expect them to come up short again. A lot riding on their round 5 game v Stormers. As mentioned previously the Hurricanes are not good favourites as they lose a lot of games you would expect them to win, conversely good underdogs as they defy the odds at times. Highlanders – 2w 1d better results than I expected however a lot of difficult opponents left and will struggle to finish midtable IMO. Blues – 2w but disappointing and lack of “backbone” in squad being exposed earlier than I thought. Thought preseason that their “class” players would pull them through to top 4 but not so confident now. Will probably be one of the 5/6 teams battling for other two top 4 positions. Stormers – 1w 1d If they can get up this week v the Hurricanes they then have a run of 5 home games which they should do well out of. Big game v the Hurricanes as the loser will find it tough to make the top 4. Bulls – 1w result of tough draw with first 5 games away. If they lose to Waratahs this weekend will need to win remaining games to make top 4. Not out of it yet but will be getting nervous. Cats – 1w have dropped 3 home games already so don’t expect them to make top 4. Feel they are improving so expect them to pick up some unexpected results. Could be a good betting proposition from here on in. Chiefs – 1w but loss to Reds very disappointing and with only 5 home games a very damaging one. As per preseason would surprise if they can make top half of table. Sharks - 0w with three losses at home and playing Brumbies this weekend. Major factor to consider now is that they have just fired coach Kevin Putt so will be interesting to see what impact this has. Game this weekend in may offer something for “new manager” followers. Would have expected the line to move one way or the other on this so will be looking closely at the Sharks with a 9.5pt start.