Toast's Ante Post Gold Cup Bets.

[Toast]

This could be like War And Peace, so I will break it up and post over the next week or so. I don't normally bet AP, but of all the championship races at the festival, this looks to be the most wide open contest, and the 1 that offers the best value prices. I'll start off by taking last year's GC apart. Whenever I see a horse that is given a rating in of 170+ I ask if the horse is worthy of it. With the benefit of hindsight and post racecourse performances, we can agree or disagree with the Official Handicapper. In days gone by, the top class horses used to race over various trips, on various grounds and in handicaps, not just graded races. This made the horses official rating much easier to diagnose, unfortunately, nowadays, the better class horses are wrapped in cotton wool, making a judgement much more difficult, so much so, that it comes down to guesswork on behalf of the OH. Take Bobs Worth mark of winning the GC of 175 (ims). Subsequent results show that this rating is far too high. Of the beaten horses next runs (22 in total), only 2 have won 9%, 6 placed and the rest unplaced. So approximately 66% of the post GC runs, have resulted in the horses finishing unplaced. Shocking for a grade1 race. The 2 wins were by Monbeg Dude off 138 in a handicap and by Sir Des Champs who beat Long Run, ( has been deteriorating since last years Aon Chase) by 3/4l and First Lieutenant, who was racing on his hated soft and running in his 3rd grade 1 in 40 days, by 1 1/4l. So I can come to the conclusion that the OR given to Bobs Worth is wrong, and subsequently, so must the OR given to the beaten horses. To my eyes, he ran on up the hill past beaten and tiring horses. So it will come as no surprise that I don't rate the form of last seasons race. Another reason being, that the winner never contested the all i

[Toast]

Re: Toast's Ante Post Gold Cup Bets. Sorry, previous post should have ended with never contested the all important king George or Lexus chase. Now, for the bigger players whom I believe will not win. No need to write up their achievements, just my fears, doubts and worries for them. Sir Des Champs...firstly we have the dreadful record of placed horses from the previous season to over come, but, more importantly, last year, in the last furlong, he was running on the spot, ie, stamina gave way. Cue Card...I don't believe that anyone thinks that the betfair chase was run over 25f, I even have my doubts that it was even 24f. To me, he looks to have too much speed for the GC trip, but his jumping is my worry. Watch last years KG or this years Betfair, when he's racing alone, his jumping is fine, when he is within eyesight of another horse, he can be quite tentative at his fences. Not difficult to envisage another Carvills Hill/ Golden Freeze scenario. Oh, and he's the only British bred in the race. Master Oats was the last Brit in 95. Since then, from 51 win and places, we've managed 6 places. Poor. Silviniaco Conti...missed the meeting in 2012 as Nicholls wanted to wait for a more suitable course..Aintree. Assumption proved correct last season, as he fell when his stamina started to ebb. All his best form is on flat courses. Dynaste...despite having won at Cheltenham, he's another who's best form is on flat courses. Big reservations about his stamina, due to his trainer running him in the Jewson last year, and not the 4f further RSA.