TUES 17TH DEC FLAT RACING

[richard-westwood]

hello everyone ...........you remember me from when my speed ratings ages ago .........well I decided it was time I went away and specialised in the all weather sprint races as that was where I felt speed ratings were most potent ................the hard bit for me was bringing all the ratings into line as some form is worth more than others ...........and that really was hard bit to tackle .................had to rate loads races ..........and create a whole new rating system that could directly compare a 5f race at southwell with a 6f race at Kempton and be balanced so that you could see the value of the rating from a betting perspective ...............this has taken monthes .................but its been tested to destruction and has picked multiple winners ........particuly at high prices which was always my secret hope as one of the inherent value tools in sprints is horses can have bad form figures but a 6th last time out can be as good if not better than a winners rating last time and then bookies overlook and price up accordingly leaving a big value door open .............it was always my intention to locate these discrepancys and farm them ...........and hopefully that's where I am now ...........first race for ratings purposes will be 230 southwell tues ............. computer narrowed 12 runners to 4 potentials hannahs turn 98.66 negative weight rowe park 98.73 positive weight and eased Rambo will 98.73 negative weight r woody 98.24 positive weight close race ..............and don't look at the closeness of the decimals as new rating is ultra accurate and a 1 pt difference can effect up to 2-3 lengths in real terms ..............new scale was needed to cope with all the detailed data available in sprint racing and slight differences having big effects according to table best bets in race are rwoody and rowe park who both have poor form figures but rate highly on clock and so will be priced up highly hopefully when markets go live later which is why im posting early cos im on a value hunt ...........still a trappy race and you need a certain amount of luck in running too so anything can and does happen but with a more level playing field you can just concentrate more on finding prices which helps a lot and makes selecting really easy early forecasts on sporting life say 10/1 on both ............so ill be looking on betfair later for value odds

[Aidymac]

Re: TUES 17TH DEC FLAT RACING Southwell 3:30 With Luke Morris on top of his game the past while on the all-weather, I think the price looks generous on the John Balding trained Point North who has Luke on board for the very first time tomorrow. The horse's form at Southwell is a slight worry, from 4 runs he has not been placed, but he is an inconsistent horse in the main. He runs off a mark of 72 tomorrow, the same mark he finished second off at Wolverhampton behind Fathsta in July. He won a race at Nottingham on the turf in good style last May and although he is a very inconsistent horse, I just find the jockey booking very interesting. He has either won or got placed on three of his last six rides here at Southwell for the trainer so fingers crossed they have the horse fit and well for a big run. Point North WIN @ 11/1 Bet Victor