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KEVIN PULLEIN DRAW SYSTEM WITH VALUE


iroquois

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This system is based in the book of kevin pullein. "The definitive guide to betting on football". A good book based on statistics. He studied the leagues all around the world and make a portfolio of math formulas that explain soccer results! Basically what he says is that games that have a certain percentage of sucess draw X games. The sucess is calculated by the formula S=(wins+(0.5*draws))/all games. A win is valued with 1 point and a draw is valued with half point. If a victory correspond 100% of sucess, a draw correspond half that sucess... I pick that formulas and made a program in visual basic that calculate the possible draw games in a league. What i do is choose the leagues with greater percentage of draws and applied them to the program. the percentage of league draws must be over 30%. So, for this weekend the chosen leagues are: italy B with 35.48% of draws=2.81 odds. italy C1B: 34.74%=2.87 france2 played yesterday... denmark: 31.48%= 3.17 apertura: 30.48%= 3.28 croatia: 30.10%= 3.32 The concept of value must be considered. If the game the program appoint to be a possible draw have a inferior odd than the correspondent league odd then we don't bet. I consider to the under odd for the game that the bookmaker offer for the game. We know that games with under tendency have more probabilities to draw than over games. System: bank=500 units bet flat=10 units program indicate draw Bet365 odds for under league draw odd So here are the picks for the weekend... italy B trapani-avellino draw odd 3.10; under 1.73; value concept ok; pick draw

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