msimx Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 So lets say i have a punter giving me tips and his average ROI is 10% is there a formula to calculate how much is each decimal point worth? For example, if a punter gives a tip to bet on 3.0 odds for team A and the odds jump to 3.11 or drop to 2.05 how could i calculate how much i actually win or lose here or if the bet isnt value anymore based on punters roi? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 Re: How to calculate ROI increase or decrease with odds going up or down If his yield is 10% then probability of his pick is 1.1/3 = 36.7% If your odds is 3.11 , then expected yield is 3.11*0.367 = 14% If your odds is 2.05, then expected yield is 2.05 * 0.367 = -25% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msimx Posted October 27, 2013 Author Share Posted October 27, 2013 Re: How to calculate ROI increase or decrease with odds going up or down hey zbrochu, how did you come up with those numbers, particulary 1.1/3 part? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 Re: How to calculate ROI increase or decrease with odds going up or down 1.10 is +10% yield . 3 is odds. Yield = Probability * Odds 1.10 = x * 3.0 x = 1.10 / 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negapo Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Re: How to calculate ROI increase or decrease with odds going up or down I think this is correct: The punter beats the odds on average by 10%. If he tips you on a odd of 3 and the odd has the average 10% value then the true odd would be: 2.73 = 3.00/(1 + 10%) So anything above 2.73 would be good. I think zbrochu answer was the same stated in another way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negapo Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Re: How to calculate ROI increase or decrease with odds going up or down I cannot edit the previous post (that has a lot of line breaks) unless i make this post and get to the 20 posts required to edit posts :D So here t goes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlanJenkins2 Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Re: How to calculate ROI increase or decrease with odds going up or down Do you ignore or include Asian Handicap 'pushes' when calculating ROI ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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