Nice selections, but I'm losing money ...

[MPLouis]

I wasn't sure where to post this, but thought I'd put it in 'Systems & Strategy' ... I've been struggling with returns from my betting recently. I'm fairly confident I've been making some good selections, but I've also been losing rather than winning. I wanted to sound everyone out to see if anyone has any advice or suggestions :hope Last night (Tuesday 8th October) was a good example. I analysed possible value on the Johnstone's Paint Trophy cup games and marked six teams in red which I thought were good value. Two of these were Brentford at Peterborough and Carlisle at Morecambe. I placed real bets myself and tipped these on PL ... http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/143401-Johnstones-Paint-Trophy-gt-Tuesday-October-8th Brentford lost and Carlisle drew, giving a poor return on the night. However, looking back at the other four teams I highlighted in red on my list, I would have had made a decent profit if I had backed all six instead of just Brentford and Carlisle. All bets were 2-way Asian bets with Pinnacle or sbo. I have recorded returns with level stakes of 1 point per bet. ACTUAL BETS LAST NIGHT My actual two bets were: Peterborough v Brentford Brentford +0.5 2.27 Pinnacle LOST Returns 0 Morecambe v Carlisle Carlisle AH0 2.21 sbobet VOID Returns 1 Summary of returns with level staking ========================== 2 level bets of 1 point Returns 0 (lost) 1 (void) Total stake = 2 Total return = 1 Yield = 1/2 = -50% A loss of 50% on the night - pretty disappointing. FULL LIST OF SIX SHORTLISTED RED BETS LAST NIGHT My full six 'highlighed red' bets were as follows. I haven't named the other teams, because it's not really relevant who they were and I don't want to foster ideas of 'after-timing', so I've just given them letters. Peterborough v Brentford Brentford +0.5 2.27 Pinnacle LOST Returns 0 Morecambe v Carlisle Carlisle AH0 2.21 sbobet VOID Returns 1 Team A v Team B Team B AH0 1.95 sbo WON Returns 1.95 Team C v Team D Team D +0.5 2.45 Pinnacle WON Returns 2.45 Team E v Team F Team F +0.5 2.61 Pinnacle LOST Returns 0 Team G v Team H Team H +0.5 2.72 Pinnacle WON Returns 2.72 Summary of returns with level staking ========================== 6 level bets of 1 point Returns: 0 (lost) 1 (void) 1.95 (won) 2.45 (won) 0 (lost) 2.72 (won) 8.12 Total stake = 6 Total return = 8.12 Yield = 2.12/6 = 33% A profit of 33% - very nice SUMMARY So backing all six highlighted red 2-way bets would have given a nice profit of 33% on the night. The only trouble is, I failed to back all six, choosing just two resulting in one void and one loser. My choices meant that instead of producing a 33% profit, I actually got a 50% loss. This has been the pattern in my recent bets. I've done lots of good research, made a shortlist, then selected some bets only to find my selections lose where others that I failed to back won. Or I back some selections and produce a loss, then the next night I fail to back my choices and miss out on a nice profit. Am I doing something wrong here? Am I missing something? Or am I just being unlucky? Any advice or suggestions much appreciated ... :)

[negapo]

Re: Nice selections, but I'm losing money ... I wrote this on another thread that i think is relevant in you case:

When you trade (both in sports betting or financial markets) or even when you open a business your expected profit is dependent on the number of opportunities you encounter and the value that they provide. When you account for luck you get to the conclusion that you rather have a lot of opportunities with small value than few opportunities with big value. An example: You get to back Real Madrid to win the game at odds of 2.0 against the team that is in last. You compute that the fairodds will be something like 1.30 so this is a chance in a lifetime. What do you do, how much do you bet? If you follow your guts or something like the Kelly Criterion you will find out that you should not stake too much because Real Madrid can still end not winning (in 23% of the times), so you can only grab in safety a little amount of this huge opportunity. Id rather have a way of identifying a lot of small imbalances and take them all with small stakes. And to find a lot of opportunities a human is not a good thing, it will get tired, it will get fed up and risk a lot more than is should (i believe that poker players can relate with this).

In essence you will achieve your excepted value (you will find out if you make money or lose) in the long run after a lot of bets so grab every opportunity that you find value even if it inst a lot. Bet small on every selection that you find value (reduce the roll of luck). PS: It's a little bit like diversification in financial assets.