The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside)

[Marazan]

So last season I ran this system: http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/132924-Thick-as-two-short-planks-rugby-system-0-94-yield-for-season-full-data-on-page-3 Which ended up with a -0.94% yield because I slept in and missed a pair of winners. Which on a market with a near 11% overround is pretty decent I think. This season I'm going to be running the same basic system again but this time up my stakes and use both Betfair and William Hill, whosoever gives me the best odds. I'm also going to be running a second system that I call the "RUGBY HOME RUN" system. Basically the idea is that occasionally last season my Handicapper disagreed with the bookies by a big huge amount, in excess of a 10 point difference. In the majority of cases if I had backed the team my handicapper favored on the handicap I'd have made mega wonga over the season. So this season I'll be on the lookout for such games and they'll have their own records kept.

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) Just waiting for Betfair to put up their prices before making my first picks.

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) So My first bets of the new season Gloucester @ 1.17 (William Hill) 4 Units. Handicapper predicts 16 point Gloucester Win (Bookies predict 10) Leicester @ 1.08 (William hill) 4 Units. Handicapper predicts 21 point Leicester Win (Bookies predict 15) Ulster @ 1.5 (Betfair Sports Book) 4 Units. Handicapper predicts 15 point Ulster Win (Bookies predict 5) 4 Units is my standard bet size this season. My handicapper matches the bookies exactly on 8 points for the Glasgow/Cardiff match and has Scarlets by 3 whilst the bookies have Leinster by 1 so too tight to call there. In the English Premiership I'm leaving the Twickers matches alone as I don't properly take into account the weird "non-home" nature of the ties. (My Handicapper predicts a massive blow out for Saracens if it you were to accept the premise it isn't a home match for LI. For the Saints vs Exeter game I'm predicting just a 3 point win for Northampton (a big surprise there) compared to the bookies 8. Not a big enough swing to consider backing Exeter on the handicap. There are no game eligible for the home run system. Only the Dragons-Ulster game came close but fell short by a point.

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) Remaining 3 matches Connacht @ 1.25 (William Hill) 4 Units. Handicapper has 15 point Connacht win (Bookies predict 8) Munster @ 1.25 (Betfair Sports Book) 4 Units. Hadicapper has 19 points Munster win (Bookies predict 10) Treviso @ 2.15 (Betfair Sports Book) 2 Units. Handicaper has 4 point Treviso win (Bookies predict Draw) Treviso bet a touch risky I think.

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) Well this has been a pish opening weekend.

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) Well, I was right - a blow out for Saracens. Pity I didn't bet on it. Didn't see the Glos-Sale match. Well, it's a marathon not a sprint. Total staked: 22 Number of bets: 6 Winning bets: 2 Losing bets: 4 Strike rate: 33.3% Yield: -34.9% Profit (or Loss): -7.68

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) No bets on the Friday night matches. All my Handicaps are within 2 points of the bookies apart from the Caridff-Connacht match where my handicapper is predicting a 1 point Connacht win vs a 9 point Cardiff victory from the bookies. If the difference was more like -5 +5 I'd be tempted to make a small punt on the handicap but with only the narrowest of victories predicted I'll leave that one for now. Once again no candidates for the Home Run system (Cardiff Connacht game a 10 point difference, I need 11 points of more for a game to be eligible)

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) Much mroe action on the weekend matches Exeter @ 1.4 (>William Hill) 4 Units. Handicapper has 12 point win (Bookies predict 7) (This was a miss bet, should have only been 2 units Worcester @ 1.4 (>Betfair Sports Book) 4 Units. Handicapper has 13 points win (Bookies predict 7) Leicester @ 2.0(William Hill) 2 Units. Handicapper has 7 point win (Bookies predict Bath by a point) Leinster @ 1.4(Betfair Sports Book) 2 Units. Handicapper has 14 point win (Bookies predict 10)

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) If there's anything worse than a draw in rugby betting it's a last minute draw. Another poor week. Total staked: 34 Number of bets: 10 Winning bets: 4 Losing bets: 6 Strike rate: 40.0% Yield: -41.41% Profit (or Loss): -14.08

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) No bets on Fridays games, apart from the Treviso - Musnter match where I'm predicting 6 point Trev win over the 3 point Munster win from the Bookies. Just waiting for the Betfair odds to become available before deciding who I am betting with. All other handicaps are within 2 poitns apart from the Cardiff - Zebre match but not a big enough difference to back Zebre on the Handicap.

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) Treviso @ 2.5(>Betfair Sports Book) 4 Units. Handicapper has 6 point win (Bookies predict 3 point win for Munster)

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) Ospreys @ 1.16(>Betfair Sports Book) 2 Units. Handicapper has 20 point win (Bookies predict 14 point win) London Irish @ 1.8(William Hill) 2 Units. Handicapper has 7 point win (Bookies predict 1 point win) Northampton @ 1.8(William Hill) 2 Units. Handicapper has 6 point win (Bookies predict 1 point win) Rejected the Ulster match as Ulster's injury situation is too great, and also rejected the Saracens match as although in the acceptable margin of 4 points it's at such low odds I do not think it is a value proposition.

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) Well arse, my handicapper predicted an 11 point win for Ulster, end result was an 11 point win. Still I feel my reasoning was sound. Very proud of picking the Trevios - Munster result right, made a big difference to the figures even with 50% of my bets failing this week. In short, Rabo bets came in, Aviva bets failed. Total staked: 44 Number of bets: 14 Winning bets: 6 Losing bets: 8 Strike rate: 42.9% Yield: -26.7 Profit (or Loss): -11.76

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) Just seen the end of the Glos-Saints match. I am furious, I feel like the ref own be two quid.

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) Due to circumstances beyond my control I may not be able to make any bets this weekend. Here is the output of my handicapper so people can see what I would have done. [TABLE]

[TR] [TD]Ulster[/TD] [TD]Treviso[/TD] [TD=align: right]20[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Zebre[/TD] [TD]Glasgow[/TD] [TD=align: right]-22[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Edinburgh[/TD] [TD]Scarlets[/TD] [TD=align: right]-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]Blues[/TD] [TD=align: right]16[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Connacht[/TD] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Munster[/TD] [TD]Dragons[/TD] [TD=align: right]21[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD]NorthamptonSaints[/TD] [TD]SaleSharks[/TD] [TD=align: right]17[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]BathRugby[/TD] [TD]LondonIrish[/TD] [TD=align: right]19[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]LondonWasps[/TD] [TD]WorcesterWarriors[/TD] [TD=align: right]10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Harlequins[/TD] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD=align: right]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]ExeterChiefs[/TD] [TD]LeicesterTigers[/TD] [TD=align: right]-4[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) So, if you've checked the handicaps you'l see I agree, to the digit with the Saints game and the Leinster game, only 3 points of the Ulster and Edinubrgh matches so leaving those alone. However, The Glasgow game: Glasgow @ 1.17(>William Hill) 6 Units. Handicapper has 22 point win (Bookies predict 10 point Glasgow win) This means the game is also eligible for the RUGBY HOME RUN system Glasgow (-10) @ 1.91 (William Hill) 10 Units.

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) Munster 4 units @ 1.04

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) Bath 2 units @1.08

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) Well, all hail the basic system, all winners this week, only 3 picks and all at short odds but winners nine the less Total staked: 56 Number of bets: 17 Winning bets: 9 Losing bets: 8 Strike rate: 52.9% Yield: -18.6% Profit (or Loss): -10.42 As for the RUGBY HOME RUN System. Bleurgh. I thought, at 24-3 up just after half time that I was looking at a sure thing but Glasgow rather badly let me down. Total staked: 10 Number of bets: 1 Winning bets: 0 Losing bets: 1 Strike rate: 0% Yield: -100% Profit (or Loss): -10

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) Predictions now, bets will come tomorrow: [TABLE]

[TR] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD]Ulster[/TD] [TD=align: right]-1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dragons[/TD] [TD]Zebre[/TD] [TD=align: right]11[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Treviso[/TD] [TD]Connacht[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Scarlets[/TD] [TD]Glasgow[/TD] [TD=align: right]-5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Munster[/TD] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD=align: right]9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Blues[/TD] [TD]Edinburgh[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD]SaleSharks[/TD] [TD]BathRugby[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]LondonIrish[/TD] [TD]Harlequins[/TD] [TD=align: right]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD]LondonWasps[/TD] [TD=align: right]16[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]LeicesterTigers[/TD] [TD]NorthamptonSaints[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]GloucesterRugby[/TD] [TD]ExeterChiefs[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) Sale-Bath No Bet, if Sale had been predicted by 5 by the handicapper I would have considered them on the Handicap Ospreys-Ulster, No Bet, once again not quite a big enough gap to consider the O's on the Handicap) Dragons Zebre, No Bet (handicaps match exactly) Treviso - Connacht, No Bet What a boring Friday

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) Saracens @ 1.14 (Will Hill) 2 Units, 16 point win vs the bookies 12. No other English bets Munster @ 2.37 (Will Hill) 2 Units, 9 point win vs the bookies 4 point loss. Almost tempted to go to the full 4 units for this but I like to bet small when backing the underdogs. No other Rabo bets, almost tempted by the Glasgow game but as they are my team I don't want to let bias cloud by judgement.

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) Oh, almost forgot. The Munster - Leinster match is a 13 point difference between my handicap and the bookies so that make it eligible for the RUGBY HOME RUN system Munster (+4) @1.91 (Will Hill) 10 units.

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) A good week for the system, all bets were successful. The only shame was I didn't wait for the Betfair odds for the Munster match - they were offering 2.57 on Munster and I took 2.37 with Will Hill. That's a big chunk of potential profit wasted. Second shame is that my handicapper predicted a 5 point win for Glasgow that I passed on, they won by 5 points. Total staked: 60 Number of bets: 19 Winning bets: 11 Losing bets: 8 Strike rate: 57.89% Yield: -12.3% Profit (or Loss): -7.40 And my first hit for the RUGBY HOME RUN System. Total staked: 20 Number of bets: 2 Winning bets: 1 Losing bets: 1 Strike rate: 50% Yield: -4.5% Profit (or Loss): -0.9

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) A brief return of the league before Internationals poke their nosey head in: [TABLE]

[TR] [TD]Ulster[/TD] [TD]Blues[/TD] [TD=align: right]15[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Zebre[/TD] [TD]Scarlets[/TD] [TD=align: right]-13[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Glasgow[/TD] [TD]Munster[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Edinburgh[/TD] [TD]Treviso[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD]Connacht[/TD] [TD=align: right]19[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD]Dragons[/TD] [TD=align: right]22[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD]BathRugby[/TD] [TD]GloucesterRugby[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]ExeterChiefs[/TD] [TD]WorcesterWarriors[/TD] [TD=align: right]18[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Harlequins[/TD] [TD]SaleSharks[/TD] [TD=align: right]23[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]NorthamptonSaints[/TD] [TD]Saracens[/TD] [TD=align: right]-5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]LondonWasps[/TD] [TD]LeicesterTigers[/TD] [TD=align: right]-11[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] So the bookies once again hew close to my predictions in the rabo - the ony picks worther looking at is the Zebre - Scarlets (which is only 4 points differnt from Will Hill) and the Ospreys Dragons game. Ospreys @ 1.16 (Betfair Sports Book) 4 units (22 win vs 13 point win at bookies). No matches eligible for home run system. Still got the final Rabo match and the other 4 Aviva matches to go.

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) So a lot of action on the Aviva Prem: Exeter@ 1.16 (>Betfair Sports Book) 2 units (18 win vs 12 point win at bookies). Harlequins@ 1.31 (after comission) (>Betfair Exchange) 6 units (23 win vs 9 point win at bookies). Saracens@ 1.52 (after comission) (>Betfair Exchange) 2 units (5 win vs 4 point loss at bookies). Tigers@ 1.17 (after comission) (>Betfair Exchange) 4 units (11 win vs 2 point loss at bookies). And plenty of targets fro the RUGBY HOME RUN SYSTEM Harlequins (-9) 10 units @1.91 (Will hill) Tigers (+2) 10 units @ 1.91 (Will hill)

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) That's a shame, it was looking good until Sarries and Tigers let me down. I think I may have to suspend betting on Leicester as their injury ravaged side bears almost no relation to last season's mob. Total staked: 78 Number of bets: 24 Winning bets: 14 Losing bets: 10 Strike rate: 58.33% Yield: -13.5% Profit (or Loss): -10.58 And the RUGBY HOME RUN System is currently no better than guessing. Total staked: 40 Number of bets: 4 Winning bets: 2 Losing bets: 2 Strike rate: 50% Yield: -4.5% Profit (or Loss): -1.8

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) Guess which idiot forgot to take into account the England international period? This one right here. Sorry for anyone who followed by picks on the Aviva this week.

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) For anyone who is interested, the correct predictions for last weekend's matches should have been: BathRugby GloucesterRugby 3 ExeterChiefs WorcesterWarriors 18 Harlequins SaleSharks 21 NorthamptonSaints Saracens -2 LondonWasps LeicesterTigers 0 Which would have excluded the two loosers! And disqualified the Leicester game from the HOME RUN system as well. Rashin, frashin stupidity! Trying to juggle too many things at once and my concentration slipped. Most displeased with myself.

[Marazan]

Re: The Return of the Rugby System (With Bonus System Pullout Inside) Correct predictions this week: [TABLE]

[TR] [TD]Dragons[/TD] [TD]Leinster[/TD] [TD=align: right]-16[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Edinburgh[/TD] [TD]Zebre[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Blues[/TD] [TD]Treviso[/TD] [TD=align: right]-2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Connacht[/TD] [TD]Glasgow[/TD] [TD=align: right]-19[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Scarlets[/TD] [TD]Ulster[/TD] [TD=align: right]-2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Munster[/TD] [TD]Ospreys[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE] [TR] [TD]WorcesterWarriors[/TD] [TD]BathRugby[/TD] [TD=align: right]4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]SaleSharks[/TD] [TD]ExeterChiefs[/TD] [TD=align: right]-6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]GloucesterRugby[/TD] [TD]LondonWasps[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]LeicesterTigers[/TD] [TD]Harlequins[/TD] [TD=align: right]6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]LondonIrish[/TD] [TD]NorthamptonSaints[/TD] [TD=align: right]-1[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Crazy week.