Flat Racing - Wednesday 21st of August

[Aidymac]

York 1:55 - Symphony Group Stakes (HANDICAP) (2) In summary I feel that Zero Money must have a cracking chance now back down to his last winning mark of 94 and with a top top jockey in William Buick on board. He is long overdue a win as he has not won since 2011 but he ran a belter behind Masamah of late. You always have to respect the David O'Meara horses in any handicap and his regularly raced horse now has a nice stall by the rail and should travel smoothly into the race. Zero Money - 1 Point Each Way @ 16/1 William Hill Dick Bos - 1 Point Each Way @ 22/1 Bet Victor Read Full Preview @ http://www.punterslounge.com/york-symphony-group-handicap-stakes-zero-should-be-able-to-bring-home-the-money-whilst-dick-bos-offers-value-too

[beaker1]

Re: Flat Racing - Wednesday 21st of August 1.55 SYMPHONY GROUP STAKES The opening race of the 2013 Ebor festival, sees a number of the country’s top handicap sprinters in action. The race has been won in the past by Group level winners and top Group performers, so looking for a potential Group winner may be the key to unlocking the race. The draw can play a huge influence on the outcome of these sprints and I believe it will be a bonus to be drawn high, winners have come in the past from the high draw and looking at the way the field pans out the pace seems to be coming from that side. A horse that may fit the mould is LONG AWAITED, in spite of failing to build on his encouraging 2012 still looks a horse with a fair amount of ability. He really came into his own at the end of last season and I and many others expected him to improve and become a big force this year. He was thus sent of a short price with Hughsie jocked up for the Epsom Dash where despite suffering major traffic issues he ran a great race and when in the clear he ran on nicely. He has since run two great races at Musselbugh and Ascot, on both occasions finishing fourth in large competitive fields. His latest outing was a little less encouraging however he wasn’t beaten too far and this was despite going left out of the gates so it may be best to forget that run. The son of Pivotal has been a tad unlucky this season, but hopefully everything will go his way tomorrow and the bonus of a nice draw in 16 with Bogart and Tax Free around him is a big plus. He comes into the race with a nice profile, with plenty of room to improve and the fact that Richard Hughes is back on board may be a significant pointer to the fact he is there to do no less than win. Yorkshire based Michael Easterby is set to saddle two runners in the opening race of his home festival with Above Standard the one that looks the most favourable. Still lightly raced in comparison with most of his opponents the son of Shamardal has only competed on three occasions this season. The first two he won, keeping on strongly at five furlongs to win at Redcar before following up in similar fashion in a tough race on the Knavesmire. He was then set is hardest assignment to date when stepped up in trip for the Stewards cup, where he equipped himself really well travelling smoothly, before challenging hard inside the final furlongs but was unable to find anything more. This was a brilliant performance from the five-year-old and also went some way to highlighting the potential he may hold. He only went up a couple of pounds for that performance which is only fair, but back down in trip may counteract that and give him that extra edge. I have always been a believer of following sprinters in form and this boy is certainly in the form of his life, if he is continued to improve he is set to be a major player. 2.30 PINSENT MASONS LLP ACOMB STAKES (Group 3) Over the past few years the Acomb stakes hasn’t really thrown up a winner who has gone on to be a real force in the game but there are a few horses in here that will be hoping to buck that trend. The Grey Gatsby holds all of the entries to suggest that connections feel that he may well be rather talented. His only racecourse appearance to date was a striking one lining up at York where despite looking rather green and inexperienced, once he found his stride he picked up in eye-catching manor and won with a fair bit more in hand than the winning distance suggests. The form from that day stands up rather well with the runner up Brazos, who’d already had a run, going on to win next time out at Goodwood. The form has held up very well indeed and with the backing of Kevin Ryan who tends to do very well with his Juveniles at the Ebor festival he may well win this on route to more lucrative targets. IL PAPARAZZI is another juvenile in the race that shed his maiden tag here on the Knavesmire and he did it with a fair amount of style. Keeping on strongly to crush his rivals by five lengths, you could have been forgiven for thinking that he hadn’t beat much at the time but that is not the case with the third and fourth both going on to win next time out. Although only costing 32,000 at the sales he is very well bred, hailing from the family of Derby hero Camelot and out of the Lingfield Oaks Trial winner Birdie. If this colt was wearing more prestigious silks, or coming from a more fashionable yard having won his maiden by five lengths I would find it hard to believe that he would be the 7/1 price that he currently sits at. Daniel Kubler has always liked the colt and is rather frustrated he didn’t take the plunge and enter him in the Royal Lodge, if he is rite that he is of that calibre then he is way too big at the moment & it may pay to be bold and take a risk. 3.05 Neptune Investment Management Great Voltigeur Stakes TRAINERS Sir Michael Stoute is currently the leading trainer in the race having won it six times in total, most recently with Sea Moon in 2012; the master of Freemason Lodge appears to have an excellent chance of making it an unprecedented seven wins today with the strongly-fancied Telescope, who at one point was ante-post favourite for the Derby. The trainer with by far the best recent record in the race is John Gosden, who landed back-to-back renewals in 07/08 with Lucarno and Centennial, and made it a hat-trick of wins twelve months ago with Thought Worthy. Gosden’s representative today is Nichols Canyon – a likely outsider but should not be discounted. Godolphin trainers have won four renewals in the last 16 years and have two contenders in the shape of Cap O’Rushes (Charlie Appleby) and Secret Number (Saeed bin Suroor). Aidan O’Brien (Foundry) has not won the race since 2003 – his last runner in the race was the well beaten favourite Seville in 2011. BETTING Although six of the last ten winners were sent off at 6/1 or less in the betting, it must be pointed out that only two of those were the actual favourite, and only one market leader has scored since 2004. The last seven years have seen winners at 28/1, 12/1 (twice) and 9/1, so obviously it is unwise to rule out any runner based solely on their position in the betting. This year’s likely favourite is Telescope, so with the jolly having such a moderate recent record, is today the day to be taking him on? RECENT FORM A last time out victory is not the be all and end all when looking for that elusive winner as less than half of the last ten winners of this race (and just one of the last six) lined up having been successful last time. However, with six of the last ten winners finishing no worse than third last time out, with a couple of the exceptions having run creditably in top-class company, the focus must be on those runners that performed well on their most recent outing. DISTANCE Recent trends point to horses with strong form over at least ten furlongs. Five of the last seven winners had previously won over a minimum of a mile and a quarter in at least Listed company; the exceptions being Monitor Closely (who had only been beaten two lengths in the Dante on the Knavesmire earlier in the season), and Sea Moon, who was not the first Sir Michael Stoute-trained horse to successfully take a huge leap in class. Of the seven horses declared for today’s race, only the two Godolphin-trained colts possess 10f+ winning form at Pattern level. Interestingly, only one of the last ten winners of this race had previously been successful over this 1m 4f trip – Youmzain (2006), for the record. Therefore, we should not go overboard about the fact that Cap O’Rushes is the only runner in today’s field to possess winning form over a mile and a half. CONCLUSION A very open race from a trends point of view, but despite Sir Michael Stoute’s superb overall record in the race, history tells us that we should probably look to oppose his likely favourite Telescope. The Galileo colt was for a time ante-post favourite for the Investec Derby, but he has had his problems, and was a beaten odds-on favourite at Haydock last time – albeit against older and more experienced animals. Of his six rivals, the one that fits the trends the best is the experienced CAP O’RUSHES, who won gamely over this trip in a Group 3 at Goodwood last time, a month after finishing a fine fourth in the Irish Derby. Godolphin are looking for their fifth win in the Neptune Investment Management Great Voltigeur and he could well be the one to provide it. The ‘dark horse’ in the race is the long-absent Foundry; he is clearly a fascinating contender but there are too many ifs and buts for him to be strongly recommended. POSITIVE: Trained by John Gosden or Sir Michael Stoute – Nichols Canyon, Telescope 10f+ winning form at Pattern level – Cap O’Rushes, Secret Number NEGATIVE Market leader – Telescope Failed to finish in the first three last time out – Nichols Canyon, Secret Number, Willie The Whipper 3.40 Juddmonte International Stakes AGE Four-year-olds have the best recent record in the Juddmonte International having won half of the last ten renewals from around 40 per cent of the total runners. In fact, their record in the race since its inception is superior to any other age group, with 19 wins from 41 renewals. There are two four-year-olds facing the starter this year, namely Declaration of War and the likely outsider Rewarded. Horses aged five or over have made up approximately one third of the total runners in the last decade and have duly won three renewals – but with only one of those wins coming in the last eight years, it appears that the tide is turning against the older contender – a slight worry for fans of likely favourite Al Kazeem. The Classic generation have been sparingly represented in recent years with only one three-year-old lining up since Sea The Stars won in 2009; they have only won two of the last ten renewals but from just a quarter of the total runners, so this should not be seen as a negative for the trio of three-year-olds facing the starter today. DISTANCE A very interesting statistic is that last year’s winner, the phenomenal Frankel, was the first horse previously regarded as a pure miler to win the Juddmonte International since Rodrigo de Triano way back in 1992. This is a big worry for fans of the progressive three-year-old Toronado; he is clearly a high-class colt, but he is no Frankel (yet). Declaration Of War was second to Al Kazeem in the Coral-Eclipse on his only start beyond eight furlongs, but he didn’t look the strongest of stayers that day and has since returned to racing over a mile. PROVEN AT THE TOP LEVEL Unsurprisingly, the last ten renewals have been dominated by regular Group 1 performers, with only the 2012 victor Twice Over having not contested a top level race on their most recent outing. Delving a bit deeper, this statistic also shows us that eight of the last ten winners had finished no worse than third in a Group 1 last time out (seven of them in the first two). Daclaration of War (fourth in a Group 1 in France) and Rewarded (down the field in a Listed Handicap) fall down on this particular statistic. Of the other four in today’s field, two (Al Kazeem and Toronado) won at the top level last time out, while Trading Leather found only Novellist too good in the King George. TRAINER TREND Sir Michael Stoute is the leading trainer in the race having won five times (although only once since 1997), and is represented this year by Hillstar. Aidan O’Brien (Declaration Of War) has three wins to his name since the turn of the millennium (including two wins since 2008); the other four trainers with a runner today are still awaiting their first success. BETTING The Juddmonte International isn’t really a race for shocks. The biggest priced winner in the last decade was Notnowcato at 8/1 in 2006 and prior to that Ezzoud’s 28/1 success way back in 1993 is the only other big-priced winner to really stand out. Favourites have an extremely strong recent record having won five of the last six renewals, so it would seem prudent to focus on those towards the head of the bookmakers boards. CONCLUSION Today’s race is being billed as a clash of the generations; in one corner is the five-year-old proven stayer Al Kazeem, in the other is the crack three-year-old miler Toronado. However, neither completely survive the negative trends. It must be said, though, that Toronado’s lack of form over ten furlongs is a much more worrying negative statistic than Al Kazeem’s age, so the trends suggest that we must be favouring the older contender in this particular battle. Declaration Of War’s unplaced effort last time out counts against him, and a stronger case could be made for fellow Irish colt Trading Leather, who survives all of the negative trends, has finished no worse than second in a Group 1 on his last two racecourse outings, and prior to that finished a good second to subsequent Derby runner-up Libertarian in the Betfred Dante here on the Knavesmire. NEGATIVES Aged five or over – Al Kazeem Unproven over further than a mile – Toronado Unplaced last time out – Declaration Of War, Rewarded POSITIVES Four-years-old – Declaration Of War, Rewarded Trained by Aidan O’Brien – Declaration Of War Top two finish in a Group 1 on latest start – Al Kazeem, Toronado, Trading Leather Likely favourite – Al Kazeem 4.20 LANSTONE BUILDING CONSERVATION STAKES The penultimate race on the opening day of the Ebor festival is an intriguing 2 mile affair with the the Mark Johnston trained BROXBOURNE offering a promising profile heading into this race. 2013 has seen significant improvement from the filly, who comes into the race in flying form. Four starts ago she really began to show her class finishing runner up behind a subsequent Royal Ascot horse. She then went on two cruise home in a competitive affair at Ascot before her most prestigious win to date finishing late and strong to beat a class line up and win at the Glorious meeting. She then returned to Ascot to compete in a race at the Shergar Cup meeting, where she wasn’t dealt a very good hand, left out the back by Lisa Alpress before slipping around the turn, only to fly home from an impossible position. She earned a lot of credit in defeat there, and although two miles may be on the lower end of her remit she looks a filly of real class and as long as the Ascot run hasn’t knocked her confidence she may be set to return to the winner’s enclosure. 4.55 BETVICTOR.COM STAKES This nursery handicap forms a very tricky conundrum so it may pay to pay attention to look at the past ten renewals. Of those 10 contests only 2 horses have won carrying anything over nine stone and these 2 were the only horses that returned at a prince under 6/1, this means we would be best to look at horses with less weight and we shouldn’t discount the outsiders. A horse that fits this profile is SPEED THE PLOUGH one of Richard Hannon’s three hopes in the race, he placed on his first three starts (one of which he was disqualified from) before shedding his maiden tag at the yards stomping ground Windsor. He then went to Goodwood to compete in a very similar event to this one, where he suffered a rather torrid time of things, but he showed good heart battling well and making strong progress before being eased near the finish. He would of certainly been closer with less interference and having only been beaten around three lengths in total he wouldn’t have been far off. Richard Hughes partners another of the yards runners in the race, but a worthy replacement in Barzalona has been booked and if he can work his magic on this son of the speedy Kyllachy he may well be in the mix. Another Hannon runner that looks in with a good chance is Banaadeer, sent off as favourite for all of his starts he has only managed to win once. He looks to have a good level of ability and this has been highlighted by finishing runner up to a Brian Meehan colt who was well regarded enough to head for France in a bid to pick up some black type. When finishing runner up that day the Hannon colt suffered a bump at the start so there is valid argument he could have been closer to that horse on the day. He looks a colt with a fair amount of ability, but will be sent off a fairish price, If he can cope with the demands of the big field he may well be able to show his ability first hand. Experience may be a big factor in this race and one horse that may be well equipped is Jazz who has already competed at Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood. He has competed at high level in big fields so this shouldn’t faze him and if he can replicate the form shown at Goodwood he may be an interesting outsider.