BBOTD WEDNESDAY 21st

[cpo]

Apologies for putting this up so early but I am away until tomorrow afternoon so thought I better get it up just in case I am not back in time. 1.55 York - Tax Free EW @ 25/1 William Hill Well I have now changed my mind for a second time so no doubt one of the other two will win. I first sided with Above Standard as I feel he is quite progressive and will benefit for the drop back to 5f at a track his trainer does well at. Then I changed to Barnet Fair as I thought this could maybe go to a hold up horse with so many front runners in opposition and with Barnet Fair being in very good form. He was unlucky in the Stewards Cup as he was on the wrong side of the track and he to would benefit for the drop back to 5f. Now I feel up with the pace is where to be over 5f on decent ground at York so I am siding with the old boy Tax Free who won this race last year. When taking this race last year the first 5 home that day came from mid-high stalls so I feel it is a disadvantage to be drawn low here. Even in a recent 5f sprint here won by Secret Asset, 4 of the first 5 home came from a mid-high draw. On that basis I have only looked at horses drawn in 10 or above. The interesting horse of the race is Ladyship who drops back to 5f for the first time in her career. She could easily have plenty to offer at the minimum trip but I would rather go with a 5f specialist in such a competitive race. Tax Free may have been a little fortunate to win this race last year as Mass Rally may have won with a clear run but I think he still has an excellent chance of following up. His last 3 runs over CD have been excellent, winning once and finishing less than 1.5 lengths behind the winner on the other 2 occasions. He is 1lb higher this year running off 93 and is another year older at 11 but he has shown this season that he still retains plenty of ability. He won at Newmarket off 85 and followed that with a 4th over CD under 5lb claimer Jason Hart off 90. He then finished 2nd to an improving young sprinter in Cincinnati Kit before putting in 2 below par efforts at Goodwood and Doncaster. I think excuses can be made for both runs as he is nowhere near as effective over 6f (Goodwood) and at Doncaster he was always in rear so you knew he stood no chance with him being a front runner. Even though that run at Doncaster only came on Saturday I have my doubts as to how hard they were trying in that race. Fran Berry was booked for the ride who has never ridden the horse before and he never tried to get him front rank. He appeared to look quite busy on him but didn't go for the whip until half a furlong out. It might just be trying to make up my own conspiracy theory but I feel they gave him a tender ride to put him spot on for tomorrow and to get a much bigger price on him. What's more likely is that he just ran poorly and isn't in the best of form but I prefer my theory! Adrian Nicholls who knows him best is back on board him tomorrow having not ridden him for his last 6 runs. He is getting no younger and sooner or later time will catch up with him but for now I will give him one more chance. Obviously he is vulnerable to younger legs but I feel a return to this CD on quick ground can bring the best out of him.

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD WEDNESDAY 21st 5.50 Lingfield This field is full of hold up sorts except Zhiggys Stardust and Desert Command so cant see this being run at much of a pace and likely to pay to be upfront. This trip is probably not Novellen Lads ideal trip these days and last win came around here over 7f. Hardly beaten a rival this summer and although mark is tumbling has a lot to prove at present. If So is of some interest, she won 2 handicaps around here one on the polytrack , latest of 74 ran ok off new mark next time out at Kempton before poorly last time out at Newmarket in a much stronger race drops down in class today but still a step up from last win and may just be handicapper has had his way for now. Polar Venture has disappointed on turf on last 2 starts but prior to that had looked progressive on the polytrack with 2 wins around here and is 3 from 3 over CD, clearly not fully exposed but he is a huge hold up horse that I just don’t think race will be run to suit. Alnoomaas ran his best race for sometime last time out when backed so will be interesting to see which way the market goes. He is 2lb ahead of the handicapper today but it is worth noting all wins have come around Kempton and Wolves and remains 6lb above last winning mark. Street Power is another that looked somewhat back to something like his best last time out travelling well off the pace. He remains on a workable mark but again race unlikely to be run to suit. Desert Command is the other potential front runner having won around here off a 6lb lower mark, a good effort again last time out at Brighton and remains unexposed but does need to find that little bit more. For me its hard to get past Zhiggys Stardust who is an out and out front runner and may well get a soft lead here again like he did last time out when he bolted clear at Kempton. That form nothing special although 2^nd horse is a reasonable yardstick for the grade and considering the soft lead he got the race was run in a solid enough time. A 5lb rise not excessive and aslong as effective around here will prove hard to beat. 1pt win Zhiggys Stardust 3/1 bet365