Speedway Grand Prix Model

[YorkshireFootyFan]

The pure system/model bets are the shortlisted ones. The recommended bets have some human input. Latvian GP Overview We will start our betting analysis of tonight´s Latvian Grand Prix with an overview of the meeting. Some of the themes touched upon will be constant throughout the analysis so it´s worthwhile qualifying them here to avoid repetition throughout the piece. A little background. Tonight´s GP is the first in Latvia since 2009, that year ended a run of four consecutive GPs and it is worth noting Greg Hancock won two of them, since then and particularly this year his form has waned and the Sportscompiler speedway model suggest the bookmakers are overestimating his chances on a heat by heat basis. Another rider who is overrated by the bookmakers is Tomasz Gollob. Again we feel his chance of success in most heats has been overestimated. Conversely, Tai Woffinden, although clearly seen as a live contender by all of the bookmakers is still underestimated based on the figures generated by the model. The same can be said of Darcy Ward. The main differences of opinion seem to be down to the draw. Time and time again the bookmakers have shortened up the rider in gate 1, subsequently the model identifies plenty of value when one of the better riders is starting from gates 3 or 4. Identifying the bets The model prices each rider´s chance to 100%, we then add 5% margin to each rider. If the price offered by the bookmakers is bigger we add the bet to the shortlist. Final selections are based on further analysis by the Sportscompiler staff whom apply their personal expertise to the model´s groundwork. Heat 1 Shortlist Tai Woffinden > 3.0 > Betvictor The presence of Iversen in gate 1 and the overrated Gollob in gate 2 sets up the market. Hopefully Lindbeck won´t apply too much pressure to Woffinden from gate 4. Recommended Bet 1pt Tai Woffinden Heat 2 Shortlist Darcy Ward > 5.5 > Bet365 A tough heat but the price of 5.5 for Darcy Ward is too big, it´s reassuring that Stan James and Ladbrokes agree and price him much more realistically at 3.50 Recommended Bet 1pt Darcy Ward Heat 4 Shortlist Martin Vaculik > 7.5 > Bet365 One of the weaker heats, Jonsson and Lindgreen in gates 1 and 2 are readily opposable, and at 7.5 Vaculik cannot be overlooked. Recommended Bet 1pt Martin Vaculik Heat 6 Shortlist Krzysztof Kasprzak > 5 > Bet365 Recommended Bet None Heat 7 Shortlist Tai Woffinden > 3 > Bet365 The two in gate 1 and 2 are very opposable here, and whilst it´s tight between Sayfutdinov and Woffinden, the price of Woffinden sways it. Recommended Bet 1pt Tai Woffinden Heat 11 Shortlist Tai Woffinden > 3 > Bet365 Woffinden has Darcy Ward in gate 1 to overcome in what on ability is almost a match. Again it is the price of Woffinden that sways it. Recommended Bet 1pt Tai Woffinden Heat 12 Shortlist Krzysztof Kasprzak > 7 > Bet365 Emil Sayfutdinov > 2.7 > Betvictor Recommended Bet 1pt Emil Sayfutdinov ¼ pt Krzysztof Kasprzak Heat 13 Shortlist Niels Kristian Iversen > 4.5 > Betvictor Has Sayfutdinov to overcome in gate 1 but with Lindgren in gate 3 Iversen has every chance of a good run to the first bend, and at the price he has to be worth a bet. Recommended Bet 1pt Niels Krisitan Iversen Heat 14 Shortlist Darcy Ward > 3.5 > Bet365 Andzejs Lebedevs > 11 > Betvictor/Stan James Frustratingly the 4.5 Darcy Ward has disappeared, still represents value at 3.5 Recommended Bet 1pt Darcy Ward ¼ pt Andzejs Lebedevs Heat 15 Shortlist Tai Woffinden > 2.5 > Ladbrokes Woffinden´s main threat comes from Hampel in gate 4, he should be able to hold him off and see off the his rivals in gate 1 and 2. Recommended Bet 1pt Tai Woffinden Heat 16 Shortlist Andreas Jonsson > 5.5 > Betvictor Recommended Bet None Heat 17 Shortlist Krzysztof Kasprzak > 8 > Stan James Strong competition from gates 1 and 2 suggests we should err on the side of caution with no bet. Recommended Bet None Heat 18 Shortlist Emil Sayfutdinov > 2.8 > Bet365 As short as 1.8, not one of the strongest heats. Recommended Bet 1pt Emil Sayfutdinov Heat 20 Shortlist All except Hampel The model suggests that Hampel is worth opposing, I´d be more inclined to lay him on Betfair than to back him, for the purpose of the model though no bet will be recommended. Recommended Bet None.

[YorkshireFootyFan]

Re: Speedway Grand Prix Model A good start, I´m going to enjoy updating this thread after the final race.