Speedway Grand Prix Model

[YorkshireFootyFan]

The pure system/model bets are the shortlisted ones. The recommended bets have some human input. Latvian GP Overview We will start our betting analysis of tonight´s Latvian Grand Prix with an overview of the meeting. Some of the themes touched upon will be constant throughout the analysis so it´s worthwhile qualifying them here to avoid repetition throughout the piece. A little background. Tonight´s GP is the first in Latvia since 2009, that year ended a run of four consecutive GPs and it is worth noting Greg Hancock won two of them, since then and particularly this year his form has waned and the Sportscompiler speedway model suggest the bookmakers are overestimating his chances on a heat by heat basis. Another rider who is overrated by the bookmakers is Tomasz Gollob. Again we feel his chance of success in most heats has been overestimated. Conversely, Tai Woffinden, although clearly seen as a live contender by all of the bookmakers is still underestimated based on the figures generated by the model. The same can be said of Darcy Ward. The main differences of opinion seem to be down to the draw. Time and time again the bookmakers have shortened up the rider in gate 1, subsequently the model identifies plenty of value when one of the better riders is starting from gates 3 or 4. Identifying the bets The model prices each rider´s chance to 100%, we then add 5% margin to each rider. If the price offered by the bookmakers is bigger we add the bet to the shortlist. Final selections are based on further analysis by the Sportscompiler staff whom apply their personal expertise to the model´s groundwork. Heat 1 Shortlist Tai Woffinden > 3.0 > Betvictor The presence of Iversen in gate 1 and the overrated Gollob in gate 2 sets up the market. Hopefully Lindbeck won´t apply too much pressure to Woffinden from gate 4. Recommended Bet 1pt Tai Woffinden Heat 2 Shortlist Darcy Ward > 5.5 > Bet365 A tough heat but the price of 5.5 for Darcy Ward is too big, it´s reassuring that Stan James and Ladbrokes agree and price him much more realistically at 3.50 Recommended Bet 1pt Darcy Ward Heat 4 Shortlist Martin Vaculik > 7.5 > Bet365 One of the weaker heats, Jonsson and Lindgreen in gates 1 and 2 are readily opposable, and at 7.5 Vaculik cannot be overlooked. Recommended Bet 1pt Martin Vaculik Heat 6 Shortlist Krzysztof Kasprzak > 5 > Bet365 Recommended Bet None Heat 7 Shortlist Tai Woffinden > 3 > Bet365 The two in gate 1 and 2 are very opposable here, and whilst it´s tight between Sayfutdinov and Woffinden, the price of Woffinden sways it. Recommended Bet 1pt Tai Woffinden Heat 11 Shortlist Tai Woffinden > 3 > Bet365 Woffinden has Darcy Ward in gate 1 to overcome in what on ability is almost a match. Again it is the price of Woffinden that sways it. Recommended Bet 1pt Tai Woffinden Heat 12 Shortlist Krzysztof Kasprzak > 7 > Bet365 Emil Sayfutdinov > 2.7 > Betvictor Recommended Bet 1pt Emil Sayfutdinov ¼ pt Krzysztof Kasprzak Heat 13 Shortlist Niels Kristian Iversen > 4.5 > Betvictor Has Sayfutdinov to overcome in gate 1 but with Lindgren in gate 3 Iversen has every chance of a good run to the first bend, and at the price he has to be worth a bet. Recommended Bet 1pt Niels Krisitan Iversen Heat 14 Shortlist Darcy Ward > 3.5 > Bet365 Andzejs Lebedevs > 11 > Betvictor/Stan James Frustratingly the 4.5 Darcy Ward has disappeared, still represents value at 3.5 Recommended Bet 1pt Darcy Ward ¼ pt Andzejs Lebedevs Heat 15 Shortlist Tai Woffinden > 2.5 > Ladbrokes Woffinden´s main threat comes from Hampel in gate 4, he should be able to hold him off and see off the his rivals in gate 1 and 2. Recommended Bet 1pt Tai Woffinden Heat 16 Shortlist Andreas Jonsson > 5.5 > Betvictor Recommended Bet None Heat 17 Shortlist Krzysztof Kasprzak > 8 > Stan James Strong competition from gates 1 and 2 suggests we should err on the side of caution with no bet. Recommended Bet None Heat 18 Shortlist Emil Sayfutdinov > 2.8 > Bet365 As short as 1.8, not one of the strongest heats. Recommended Bet 1pt Emil Sayfutdinov Heat 20 Shortlist All except Hampel The model suggests that Hampel is worth opposing, I´d be more inclined to lay him on Betfair than to back him, for the purpose of the model though no bet will be recommended. Recommended Bet None.

[YorkshireFootyFan]

Re: Speedway Grand Prix Model A good start, I´m going to enjoy updating this thread after the final race.

[YorkshireFootyFan]

Re: Speedway Grand Prix Model So how did Sportscompiler´s speedway model do? Shortlist bets (ie the pure system bets with no human input) Total Stakes 15 riders identified at 1pt each they returned 22.2 pts. Recommended bets 10.5 pts staked returned 22.2pts Winners were Heats 2, 7, 11, 12, 13, 14 Sportscompiler will be producing similar analysis for the remainder of the GP season, if permitted I´ll post it up here again.

[YorkshireFootyFan]

Re: Speedway Grand Prix Model Sportscompiler's punters tissue for the Slovenian Grand Prix is now online, calculated to 100%. I'll post their analysis up sometime tonight or tomorrow, once they give me the nod. They can be followed on twitter to @sportscompiler .

[YorkshireFootyFan]

Re: Speedway Grand Prix Model Apparently there was an error that effected approximately 6 heats, this has now been rectified, and the prices are as Sportscompiler intended.

[YorkshireFootyFan]

Re: Speedway Grand Prix Model Six bets have been recommended today, I'll post them up here later this morning.

[YorkshireFootyFan]

Re: Speedway Grand Prix Model [h=1]Slovenian Grand Prix – the recommendations[/h]

Slovenian Grand Prix

Overview Once again the bookmakers especially Bet365 are taking the view that the inside gates are going to hold the advantage but we have seen many times that it’s dangerous to presuppose old advantages will stand firm. Emil Sayfutdinov misses the GP following his recent fall and that is bad news from a betting perspective as it has led the bookmakers to recognise further the claims of Darcy Ward and champion elect Tai Woffinden. The aforementioned pair contributed greatly to our profit last time out so the recognition they are now receiving will make turning a profit somewhat harder tonight and the value is going to be found at longer odds amongst the mid ranking riders.

Heat 2

This isn’t that strong a heat, Gollob is still rated on former glories setting the market up nicely, Fredrik Lindgren is the one at 7.5 with Bet365. 1pt win Fredrik Lindgrn 7.5 Bet365

Heat 3

A much stronger heat but drawn in gate 4 has led Bet365 to go a standout price on Tai Woffinden and at 3.25 again with Bet365 he’s worth a bet, 2.5 with Ladbrokes. 1pt win Tai Woffinden 3.25 Bet365

Heat 4

Again we look to Heat 4 and Bet365 for the value and Krzysztof Kasprzak at 6.0 is the one, especially with the modest Ales Dryml in gate 3, Kasprzak has a good chance of seizing an early advantage. As much as we respect Iversen in gate 1 he should not be odds on, he sets the market up nicely for us. 1pt win Krzysztof Kasprzak 6.0 Bet365

Heat 8

Not an easy heat but Fredrik Lindgren should not be overlooked at 5.0 1pt win Fredrik Lindgren 5.0 Betvictor/Ladbrokes

Heat 11

1pt win Greg Hancock 3.6 Bet365

Heat 13

A soft heat which Tai Woffinden can take. 1pt win Tai Woffinden 2.5 Ladbrokes They also mention that there will be some rugby bets available for games playing tomorrow.

[YorkshireFootyFan]

Re: Speedway Grand Prix Model One winner from six points staked on Saturday for a loss of 2.75 points.