Search vor Value Bets!

[radelnblueangel]

Total weeks: 4 Profit/Loss:+41,53 Units Livestream Bets looking at horses shortly before the off, trying to find Value. No form watch. 1 Unit per bet always. How I find my bets, I look at the horses live and ask myself if they are good for the certain task and look at the odds and check if there is value. The main part i look at a horse is balance in the body. For staying races 2m7f+ i look at different things especially Deep ground marathons. Few things to look for in general over the distances 5f-2m4f: 1. You want a horse to be balanced on the shoulder point to the back point with a neck that fits into the overall body size. A long neck is very bad indication or long legs and overall body inbalance. 2. Over sprints you want a horse to have a slight downrise from the body structure of the back muscles to the front shoulders. Its like a gear from the back that is the motor, but you have to look for overall body balance again a good back with poor front means nothing. 3. Over deeep ground hurdles or marathons the thing is again different, here you look out for long necked stayer types that dig in with their front legs. 4. Attitude often you spot horses being keen or nervous in the ring, mostly they make an erratic pace and fade. There are more behaviours that you will learn with observation. 5. Tracklayout with experience you will get an idea what courses horses characteristics suit. For example on a hurdles 2m4f trip with uphill runin you can spot a very balanced horses that races fine, but gets overtaken late by a less balanced gawky neck stayer type. 6. So many details, you see with live observation, cant explain all. The most important thing is if the horse has the physical attributes to do something, the behaviour then determines how much of that is brought in the race and the racepanout + jockey decisions make the rest. So I dont choose a horse because of its behaviour, i choose cause im convinced it has good physical attributes and bet if the attitude seems okay. You never know, as attitude changes, but to giver you an idea, the physical conformation plays the most important part in my bets. Cheers rade! Always 1 Unit per bet, if I Lay the 1 Unit* the odds is the loss. No percentage betting increase imo. Improvements for the future: As ive realized the quantity of bets is too high: 90 bets a week isnt good it should go to around 30 bets per week maximum and then more selected ones with short price Lays or good priced winners. Thats what i want to work on for the future... Iam aware that people cant play these picks properly, as it is too short before the off or the second it starts, but this thread is there to give an understanding of the value of direct observation and make people do this themselves and integrate this into their betting approach. Im sure the socalled Betfair Smart money shortly before the off is from big punters who judge on course and need to see them to the gates. AvG winner odds first week: 6,79 BSP Total bets week 1: 90 Total bets week 2: 56 Total bets week 3: 20 Total Units Win/ Loss: +41,53 Units Total for the week: Week 1: +63,58 Units Week 2: +20,63 Units Week 3: -18 Units Week 4: -4,94 Units Week 5: -19,74 Units Current week 5: -8,2 Units

[radelnblueangel]

Re: Search vor Value Bets! 3.05 Ascot Saytara 4,8