Flat Racing - Saturday 13th July

[Kithanga]

Chester Sat 13^th July I’m off to Chester races tomorrow and see the races as follows. Price forecasts are to a 100% book. Should be interesting to see how the Racing Post and the bookies price them up later. As usual, I’ll consider backing any that are above the guide prices that give me a decent margin of error. That means I can’t say exactly which ones I’ll be on yet of course. 2.15 Urban Dreamer (7-2) has been consistent and should go well having had plenty of experience, as should Weisse Socken (11-4) who wasn’t seen at her best racing wide last time. She has more scope for improvement though having had just the three starts. Extreme Supreme (11-2) may be best of the lighter raced bunch after being thrown in the deep end on his racecourse debut. 2.50 Red Explorer (11-4) is unexposed and looks on the upgrade after showing improved form to take a similar race last time out. He looks to have plenty of scope and should go on improving. Whatever he does tomorrow I think he’ll be even better over further in time. Of the dangers Joey’s Destiny (7-2) looked like he’d returned to form last time out, is more speedily bred and also has a fair degree of ability. Trinityelitedotcom (5-1) ran better in a slowly run event at Bath last time. He seems to travel well in his races and also has scope for better. Slowish time figures achieved on slow ground is a doubt though. 3.25 Majestic Myles (9-4) will probably be a popular choice to win this event for the third time having shown signs of a return to his best last time after a poor previous run. Back down in class on a course where he has a 100% strike rate, he looks to hold a favourites chance. He won’t have it all his own way though as Correspondent (4-1) is an improving 3yo who, if he copes with the faster ground could go close on a track he won at last time. Obviously well regarded (he ran in the 2000 Guineas) he doesn’t yet have the form in the book (or the timefigures) but does have plenty of scope. Another that is yet to prove she’s good enough but who has scope to improve is Ladyship (9-2) who’s yet to strike form this year. Quietly progressive last season, this filly is in good hands and looks as though she may, like her dam, improve with age and the trip is within her scope. 4.00 A very tight race with most of the top weights coming back from poor runs or breaks and I may just sit this one out. However, the winner may just come from Intransigent (5-1), Sir Maximilian (9-2), Summerinthecity (11-2) and possibly Al’s Memory (12-1). There’s not much between the first and third named based on their run here in May. Intransigent has gone on from that the better of the two but is undoubtedly better on the all-weather. Sir Maximilian is out to prove that he can perform as well over 6f as 5f, which I’m sure he can. The more significant doubt is the likely going as he put in probably his worst run of the season in good to firm ground at Nottingham on his penultimate start. Al’s Memory is only small and therefore may get bullied about a bit from stall 1. However, if they do go off much to fast he’s capable of staying on strongly from off the pace given his winning form at 7f. Summerinthecity bouncing back to form wouldn't be the biggest shock given his liking for the track and his yard. 4.30 It doesn’t get any easier in this race as I can see any bar Marwan Koukash’s representative (doubt he’ll stay) winning. Alta Lilea (7-2) has the class and should improve for the trip but is inconsistent. Deira Phantom (7-2) remains unexposed at staying trips and back on a faster surface (by Cape Cross) has a good chance. Good Evans (7-2) owes me nothing having battled well to land a 9-1 wager at a starting price of 4-1 last Friday at Sandown. That was a hard race though as they went hard from the front that day and I wonder how much that’s taken out of him. Snowy Dawn (7-2) has bags of stamina on the dam’s side but is still a maiden. He should also improve for the step up in trip and with the yard in good form may spring a surprise as I expect him to be a little ignored in the betting. 5.10 The pace is likely to be strong here with any number of prominently ridden types. Livia’s Dream (9-2) has the speed to cope with 10f but also the stamina to last 12f and I think that’ll give her an edge in this. Stellar Express (11-2) is likely to be shorter I think based on his last two decent runs here. He is unexposed at the trip and may be able to use his 8f pace to advantage. He was beaten only ½ length by Dolphin Rock (7-1) last time but that one hasn’t run since (7 weeks ago) and the race that day seemed to benefit those ridden from the front (slow time figures). Of the others King Of Paradise (15-2) is up in class and needs to settle better than he did previously. It’ll be interesting to see if Jason Hart tucks him in this time from stall 6 with so many other front runners in opposition. If he does, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t travel better behind the strong pace and improve again at a trip he’s unexposed at. If he goes off in the lead he’ll have no chance imo. 5.45 By far the strongest form choice of the day runs in the last and I fully expect Jeremy Noseda’s colt Excuse To Linger (9-4) not to hang about. He looked like he wasn’t enjoying Brighton’s unique track last time and back on a flatter surface should be able to continue his progression. Dangers are Queen Aggie (4-1) who was taken out of the 2.50 race and should be able to use her speed at 6f to good effect here and Black Rider (5-1) who travelled nicely when winning by a short margin at Newcastle last time. He’s sometimes slowly away though which won’t help round here and up in class too so needs to improve again. K

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 13th July Ascot Summer Mile Stakes In summary, I feel it is worth taking the favourite on here. He is the deserved favourite, but in my opinion should be 3/1 or 7/2, not 9/4. Mull Of Kinlough has turned into a gritty, powerful horse the past year or so and has the fantastic William Buick on board. Trade Storm has a much better draw tomorrow in Stall 6, and Jamie Spencer should be able to switch the horse off and make a late charge. This should be a cracking contest, and let's hope we have the winner in our midst. Mull Of Kinlough - 2 Points WIN @ 8/1 Paddy Power Trade Storm - 1 Point WIN @ 7/1 William Hill Read Full Preview @ http://www.punterslounge.com/ascot-summer-mile-stakes-mull-of-kinlough-is-a-battle-hardened-performer-and-can-give-it-a-good-shot-20130712