Results vs bookies odds

[mayoman1973]

I've been analysing data from oddsPortal and I have noticed the following. In the Portuguese league the odds on favorite wins OVER twice as often as the odds on favorite wins in the PL. This statistic stands up across 500 matches over the past 3 seasons. Any one have any ideas why this would be the case? Do the bookies have a harder time picking winners in the PL than other leagues. It's also a similar trend in the Bundesliga, although not quiet as big a difference but still ALMOST twice as often.

[MPLouis]

Re: Results vs bookies odds

I've been analysing data from oddsPortal and I have noticed the following. In the Portuguese league the odds on favorite wins OVER twice as often as the odds on favorite wins in the PL. This statistic stands up across 500 matches over the past 3 seasons. Any one have any ideas why this would be the case? Do the bookies have a harder time picking winners in the PL than other leagues. It's also a similar trend in the Bundesliga, although not quiet as big a difference but still ALMOST twice as often.

It's an interesting stat. Off the top of my head, one possible reason is that there is a bigger gap in class between the top and bottom teams in the Portuguese and Bundesliga than in the Premier League - so the odds-on favourite is more likely to win.

[mayoman1973]

Re: Results vs bookies odds I also pulled out the average odds the bookies give you and the odds are very similar in both leagues. So if you were to bet blindly on the odds on favorite in Portugal you would have almost twice the returns than if you applied the same betting strategy to the PL. Obviously cause the bookies always win that equates to "your losses will be halved if you only bet on the Portugal league"