Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June

[joeblitz]

3.45 Ascot Dawn Approach 6/4 Paddy Power BOG On paper, really only 3 horses to consider (although I think Mars may one day fullfill his uncapped potential). Toranado flopped in the Guineas and I'm afraid I can't have him against the jolly. Magician is respected as he is still improving. Got the run of the races in an inferior Irish Guineas but was very impressive all the same. However, the one to beat is Dawn Approach who would be odds on had he not run in the Derby. Bolger made a huge mistake by not running a pacemaker and the pace was slow causing him to pull and with stamina exausted his race was run after 3 furlongs. Last year, he looked the real deal and in the Guineas itself he confirmed his superiority. In this race he will have the pace he needs set by Leitir Mor, a group 3 winner lto. When he fades with a furlong and a half to go, Dawn Approach will again quicken away to prove he is the best 3 year old miler around. With maximum confidence 10 points win Dawn Approach 6/4 Paddy Power BOG 2.30 Ascot Animal Kingdom Evs Paddy Power BOG I do not like a level playing field for betting purposes which is why this one isn't my BBOTD. However he has won several Grade ones and seems to have a great finishing kick. In addition he has been housed in the UK for quite some time now and should have acclimatised well at this stage. I cannot ignore the talk on this occasion either. I have looked at the opposition and in my opinion there is no one other Group one horse in the race. For example, the O' Brien horse is Group 3 at best on what he has shown. Therefore barring accidents or jockey error this should win and win well With maximum confidence Animal Kingdom 10 Points win Evs Paddy Power BOG

[StuSimmy]

Re: Flat Racing Tuesday 18th June

15:05 Ascot

I think this a great opportunity for

Reckless Abandon

to get back into winning ways having finished 3rd on his seasonal reappearance at Haydock in a group 2 race 24 days ago. Although he won first time out as a 2 year old last season, it did appear that he was in need of the run at Haydock despite only going down by half a length, losing 2nd place in the dying strides. He was beaten by 2 horses who do reoppose here today but with that run under his belt he should be back to full race fitness and the fact he has already won over today's course and distance previously, I feel that will be enough to turn that form back around, especially considering he is much less exposed than

Kingsgate Native

and

Swiss Spirit

. Considering this was his first effort against his elders, that was a cracking effort, and even more so since he was on the far side with the 1st and 2nd running near side. The form of that race has been boosted since, with two of the horses who ran on the far side with

Reckless Abandon

winning in group and listed company since. My selection won all five races last year as a 2 year old, including two group 2 races and two group 1 races. Two of which in the UK and two outwith the UK.

2pt win Reckless Abandon @ 5/1 (

Stan James

- BOG)