viclambrusco Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 I've been looking at tennis stats, and have hit a conundrum. It seems to me you quite often encounter a top player, with spectacularly short odds, losing a game. Last month, for example, Novak Djokovic was 1.05 and still lost in straight sets. Any class act can have an off day, of course, but it seems to me that it happens less frequently to Man U or Bayern Munich than is the case in tennis. Any ideas why this should be? :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Re: top tennis stars losing - advice please There are 11 players on the pitch in football for ManU, there is only one player in tennis. If anyone from ManU gets injured/has personal problems/whatever, there is a substitute available. In tennis, it is game over most likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Re: top tennis stars losing - advice please I agree with Czech Punter, but as I was reading first post, I got another idea why it happens; in my opinion, it's because of mathematics and human nature. Namely, in your example, odds of 1.05 do not show that Djokovic is due to win the match; odds of 1.05 show that estimated probability of Djokovic to win is 95.2%, which, in turn, means that in the long run, once in 20 matches of similar profile, favourite will fail to win. That was mathematics; and then comes human nature: when favourite at 1.05 odds wins, it's expected and does not deserve much attention; but when underdog wins at complementary odds of 21 (the remaining 4.8% chance), it's a great surprise, media praises the win, so people tend to remember those cases. As the proverb say, when dog bites the human, it's not a headline, it happens every day; but when a human bites the dog (or punches the horse), now that's the headline. The same thing happens in all sports - just take this campaign of qualification for World Cup: you might remember matches Portugal vs. Northern Ireland and Spain vs. Finland; I have just checked, Portugal was priced between 1.05 and 1.10 with various bookmakers, and Spain between 1.05 and 1.07, yet they both failed to win (both matches ended 1-1). In horse racing, there is a term "gubbed", which means that someone backed a horse at 1.01, the lowest odds available on market, yet the horse somehow went on not to win. That's all because of uncertainty of sports - if all matches ended as public expected, the trophies could be awarded before the tournament begins, and bookmakers would soon bankrupt! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viclambrusco Posted June 1, 2013 Author Share Posted June 1, 2013 Re: top tennis stars losing - advice please Good points, Froment and Czech Punter! Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Win3 Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Re: top tennis stars losing - advice please Over federers career on average he loses once every 6 games so 5 times out of six he''ll win, if you make the equivalent to a premier league season which is 38 games, man united will on average win 24-28 games, that's just a bit worse than federers record, so just about the same. Betting on 1/20 favourites will leave you in the poor house, tennis is unpredictable like nothing else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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