Olly Stevens - New Trainer To Follow

[Smarty72]

Separated From Personal Betting Thread. All the posts are copied from my thread where these were originally posted. http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/136512-Jumps-Flat-Bets/page5 04-05-2013, 11:04 #161 Trainer To Follow - Olly Stevens Going to be following this new trainer for the flat season and keep the bets separate from the main thread. Looks a very exciting new trainer with some good horses and backing. Has had an excellent start to the season with 3 winners from 7 horses on the turf and has been backed by Qatar Racing/Pearl Bloodstock member Sheikh Fahad al Thani and is training at Robins Farm in Surrey. Useful Links and information for Olly Stevens. Website - http://robinsfarmracing.com/ Twitter - https://twitter.com/RobinsFarmRacin Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/RobinsFarmRacingLtd Pearl Bloodstock - http://www.pearlbloodstock.com/ Qatar Racing - http://www.qatarracingltd.com/ One runner in the Thirsk Hunt Cup (16.35) over 1 mile with Jacob Cats ridden by Harry Bentley. Unfortunately has the outside draw of 15 from 15 runners. Bought this year from Richard Hannons Stable for Pearl Bloodstock for 240,000 Guineas, so clearly expect to win races. Going to take a big run to win this highly competitive race. Current record is 4 wins from 7 all at one mile on GF ground including a class 2 at Newmarket. Has not done well on seasonal debut previously and may just need a run to get peak fitness. 16 declared but now 1 NR so will not have a bet in this but certainly a horse to follow this year. Would of had a Each Way bet (Best current odds of 7\1 Bet365 BOG) but price drifting and only paying 3 places for 15 runners, so No Bet just a watching brief. 04-05-2013, 17:29 #162 Jacob Cats never got into a good position breaking from the widest stalls and was always behind. Harry Bentley looked to be hard at work trying to get the horse into a good position but got nowhere. Never in the race at any point. Finished 14th of the 15 runners. A very poor performance. Glad did not have a bet. SP was 13/2. 04-05-2013, 22:30 #164 One runner Sunday at Newmarket in the 16.25 Mafki Future Stars maiden stakes. Green Door is a one raced colt who was 4th on debut at Newbury. Hung badly that day but that experience could put him near the front in this race against 8 rivals who have not run before and one who was a further length behind. The trainer Olly Stephens has had one 2yo winner this season from 5 runs (4 horses). Looks a hot 2yo maiden with the top trainers having entries for big owners. Watching brief on this one but will monitor prices in the morning. Might be worth an each way bet depending on odds. 05-05-2013, 12:11 #166 Best price 4\1 and drifting slightly. Think will finish in 1st 3 so 1pt win with StanJames @ 4\1 BOG. 05-05-2013, 17:35 #167 Green Door 1pt win @ 4\1 StanJames BOG won at SP of 9\2! Return of 5.5pts. Made virtually all the running and crossed quickly to the rail after the start. Jockey Jim Crowley looked in command all race and was never put under pressure. Improved from 1st run and could prove to be a useful colt. One for the notebook. 05-05-2013, 18:26 #169 One runner for Monday at Warwick in the 14.35 Maiden Fillies Stakes - Queen Of The Tarts Queen Of The Tarts has raced twice finishing 6th at Kempton on the AW on debut but hung badly to the left. Looked a little one paced. Next up was at Windsor where finished 3rd and led early on showing good pace after breaking well from the stalls but started to wonder left again on the soft ground. Will be suited better at Warwick a left handed course but will need to break well from the stalls and get to the rail, a difficult task with the outside stall 8. Apprentice jockey Robert Tart claiming 5lb on board today but this filly does not look a straight forward ride and would have preferred a more experienced jockey on board. 3 other fillies with racecourse experience and a Richard Hannon filly making her debut. Watching brief only for this one and no bet. 06-05-2013, 20:57 #173 Veered badly to right out of stalls but recovered well to challenge for the lead. Lost position around bend and went backwards in the field. Once on the final straight started to wonder a little but seemed to stay on up to the winning post to finish 4th of 7. Has shown good early speed in last two races and will probably improve for this run but will need a good strong jockey on board as tends to veer and wonder about during races. 08-05-2013, 16:46 #174 Two possible entry's for Saturday. Hard Walnut at Lingfield in a Group 3 Fillies Stakes race - Unlikely to take up entry and looks totally out of her depth. But will check final declarations. School Fees at Ascot in a 6f class 4 handicap. A 4yo filly who was with Henry Candy last year and has a decent record in 12 races so far with 2 wins, 2 seconds and 5 thirds. Has won 2 class 5 races at 6f and won LTO at Doncaster in a fillies handicap. Richard Hughes is provisionally booked. Will be worth a closer look if declared. 09-05-2013, 19:24 #175 Both declared for Saturdays racing and will look at both of these in turn. Hard Walnut a 3yo filly with 5 runs this year for new trainer Olly Stevens, all on the all-weather at 6f with 2 wins, 2 seconds and a fourth place. The 2 wins and 2 seconds were at C5 and the fourth in C4 handicap. Four of these runs were at Lingfield and course form is 2141. Last year this filly was with Ger Lyons in Ireland and had 4 turf runs with form of 5546 starting at 6f on debut, 2 races at 7f and last turf race at 8f. OR is 76 a long way behind the top filly's lining up with the top rated at 107. 8 of the 11 declared runners are OR 95+. Harry Bentley has the ride but owners retained jockey Jamie Spencer is on another horse. This race is a G3 fillies race over 7f and Hard Walnut would have to show mega improvement (20lb+) to even stand a chance of troubling any of the other horses in this race. Can not find any reason that this filly would be worth a bet. Looks to be totally outclassed. Prize money is down to 6th but still think this is beyond this horse. Will be worth following at a lower level. Early price available from PP is 33\1 but this is a definite no bet! School Fees a 4yo filly is entered in a 6f class 4 handicap with 26 runners at Ascot and champion jockey Richard Hughes is booked to ride for the first time for Olly Stevens. Has the number 1 draw on a course that looks to slightly favour low numbers but little data to go on with big fields. Maybe best to wait for the Victoria Cup run half an hour earlier over 7f with 29 runners to get an idea of best ground and draw advantages. School Fees has had 10 runs on turf with a record of 2 wins, 2 seconds and 4 thirds with the last 8 races all been at 6f. Has raced on ground ranging from Soft (3rd of 11) to Good to Firm (3rd of 9). 2 wins have been on Good and Good to Soft ground. Both wins have been in C5 races of a OR of 74 and 75. Races of OR 78 in this race. LTO at Doncaster School Fees won a 6f class 5 fillies handicap staying on strongly in the final furlong after been near the rear for the first 5f to win a bunched finish by a head with 1L separating the first 4. Was raised 2lb for this win. The runner up Al Freej was 2nd next time out, the 3rd was 6th next time out and the 4th was 10th next time out. Form of that win for School Fees looks nothing special. Olly Stevens has had a good start to the season and looks to have got improvement from this filly from its seasonal debut run on the All-weather at Kempton. A video from his website http://robinsfarmracing.com/ show a recent gallop with Hard Walnut (running at 4pm in a G3 at Lingfield (AW)) and School Fees with both horses looking good with School Fees looking the stronger of the 2 fillies in the gallop up the hill. A good run from Hard Walnut at Lingfield would increase confidence in this horse as both are equally matched on OR. Hard Walnut OR 76 and School Fees OR 78. Will probably have an each-way bet on this horse as she has has the potential to win, a strong jockey booking of Richard Hughes and has winning form on ground (unless turns heavy) and this distance but Olly Stevens will need to get some more improvement from this filly to win this race. Will update Friday night or Saturday with prices and any bets. Saturday, 00:17 #179 No real clues from draw from Ascot races Friday night but feel that School Fees is worth an each way bet. 0.5pts EW 1/4 odds first 4 @ 14\1 Bet365 BOG. Best price available with Betvictor @ 16\1. Hard Walnut now available @ 50\1 with Betvictor and Corals. Definite no bet!

[Smarty72]

Re: Olly Stevens - New Trainer To Follow Lingfield 16.00 - Hard Walnut Was going to leave this race alone but now 3 non-runners make this a 8 runner field. 0.5 pt EW @ 33\1 Bet365 Still give this little chance but place odds greatly increased and the ground changes make this a more interesting race.