BBOTD Tuesday 23rd

[cpo]

4.55 Punchestown Saint Gervais 1pt win @ 25/1 Ladbrokes The key race to judge most of these could be the race at Fairyhouse on the 2^nd of April won by Captain Arceus. Several of these ran in that race with Sizing Machine doing best of them by finishing a very close 2^nd. I certainly don’t think he is a certainty to uphold that form with the likes of Enchanted Forest, Tristram Shandy, Citizenship and a few others. With very little separating them runners I am inclined to look elsewhere. Snap Tie did very well to win this race last year off the back of a very long absence. He returned at Cheltenham back in November but ran no race. The yard is in cracking form now though, so he could go very well. Benash finished 2^nd in this last year to Snap Tie with the both of them pulling well clear but he does struggle to win having not won in his last 25 so I would be against him in this. He gets the first time blinkers for this and it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if he were to run well without being good enough to win. I am leaning towards those carrying less weight for this and the one that’s keep leaping out the page at me is Saint Gervais. This horse only made his racecourse debut as a 6 year old but quickly proved himself to be a smart bumper horse with comfortable victories over Maller Tree and Owega Star. Both of those horses were recently seen back in December fighting out a grade 2 hurdle race at Navan. Saint Gervais hasn’t really progressed over hurdles as his earlier bumper form promised but I feel there could still be more to come from him. Since returning to the track after a short break in March 2012, connections kept him very busy with 12 races up until January this year. So far throughout his career he has shown his best form away from the cold winter months with his 4 career wins coming between April and September. He has remained quite consistent without really threatening in his races but I feel a short break he has had may have done him the world of good. He returned from a 71 day break at the Curragh where he ran very well but looked in need of the run as he faded in the final couple of furlongs. That should have brought him along nicely and put him spot on for this. John E Kiely is not a trainer I know much about but his stats are very good. In the last 5 years he has had 258 runners over hurdles with 40 winners, 29 2nds, 26 3rds and 20 4ths. He has a 19% strike rate at Punchestown which shows a level stakes profit of +£2.35. I think he is someone that places his horses well and Saint Gervais looks as though he has been trained with this race in mind.

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 23rd 6.15 Yarmouth I have been lucky enough to see Great Expectations in the flesh a few times and he is a really imposing big sort that looked as if he would improve with age, surprised we didn’t see him over the winter at Southwell but maybe kept fresh for a turf season. He ran his best race for a while last time out at end of season at Doncaster meeting some trouble off a mark of 69, quickly up 4lb for that effort but that race is working out particularly well and doesn’t look that badly treated on some of his best form, fast ground looks ideal and yards runners running well and aslong as he is fit enough to do himself justice it would be no surprise to see him go well. 1pt win Great Expectations 11/2 hills