NGS Posted April 22, 2013 Author Share Posted April 22, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline 20.50 at Wolves Waveguide - 10 points win and 10 points place on Betfair at 5.50 and 2.98 respectively. Making debut on the A/W - he should improve slightly for the change of surface and trainers horses making their seasonal debut have down OK generally and particularly well this year in particular. The slight step up in trip is probably also a marginal plus. One of the main dangers on the betting is Qeethaara and he seems to do better away from Wolves and has been heavily raced on the A/W recently - he has back class but is also advancing in age. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted April 22, 2013 Author Share Posted April 22, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline No more bets today. Of the 3 bets - 1. Monopoli never threatened. 2. Arms beaten a head - picked up the place money. 3. Waveguide beaten a short head - again picked up the place money. Overall the place money has given me a slight profit on the day - 1.81 points up! Bank now 215.55 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted April 23, 2013 Author Share Posted April 23, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline 14.50 at Wolves 10 e/w on Time to Begin with Paddy Power - has good draw, good particularly good performance in the past in Ireland and Thomas Brown on board. there should also be a good pace which will suit him given he has performed well at further. Quite fancy it. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted April 23, 2013 Author Share Posted April 23, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline Sorry should have said got 11/2 on Time to Begin - price has now come in a bit. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted April 23, 2013 Author Share Posted April 23, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline Time to begin never threatened. 16.30 at Wolves - Before seeing the prices I thought I would be going with Mia's Boy given he has the pace to run at but he's too short for me and his last couple of runs have not been quite as good as soon of his earlier ones. Going to 2 at bigger prices. Newnton Lodge - 5 points e/w with William Hill and Good Authority - 5 points win (18.5 on Betfair) and 5 points place (4.5 on Betfair). Newnton Lodge making debut on the A/W and should improve for it. Still lightly raced and if improving any as a 4 year old he might well be thereabouts. Trainer does better than average for horses making their seasonal debuts. Good Authority - Just seems too high a price having run well and had some bad luck in recent starts, the decent pace should also play to his strengths. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted April 24, 2013 Author Share Posted April 24, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline Neither Newton Lodge nor Good Authority were able to hit the places. So 40 points down yesterday. Bank now 175.55 13.35 at Catterick I approached this expecting to take on Pull the Pin but having looked at it I think he has a decent shout. His recent form is at Southwell and Catterick is a very different course but having looked at his pedigree I don't think he is a horse who is going to be much better at Southwell than elsewhere. His last 2 races on the turf were at 5f and the 7f should suit him. Going with 8 points win and 8 points place both on Betfair 10.5 and at 3.25 respectively. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted April 24, 2013 Author Share Posted April 24, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline Pull the pin led and then faded in the final furlong - went off a bit quick. 16 points down on that. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted April 24, 2013 Author Share Posted April 24, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline 14.05 at Catterick Nomoreblondes - 7 points win and 7 points place on Betfair at 12 and 4.2 - has ideal conditions and early time in last few years has come good on either his 2nd or 3rd run of the year. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline 14.05 at Catterick Nomoreblondes - 7 points win and 7 points place on Betfair at 12 and 4.2 - has ideal conditions and early time in last few years has come good on either his 2nd or 3rd run of the year. NGS I also looked at this race (unsuccessfully) and decided not to bet on Nomoreblondes. A flat horse starts losing its ability at 7/8 years old in most cases, although some still do well at this age. Nomoreblondes actually won off it's highest OR last year when 8yo. Once the animal reaches 9 years old (which is how old Nomoreblondes is now) it goes into major decline winning only about half as often as you would expect. The trick with these old horses is deciding if they've 'still got it' and the best way is to do this is assess how competitive their recent performances have been. I would look at recent races and tend not to give them the 'benefit-of-the-doubt / excuses' if it was a poor run. After winning those two C&D races in 2012 Nomoreblondes never again came close to winning in 6 further races that season. I reckon she was a course specialist at Catterick 5f because of the downhill nature of the course. My point here is that under normal circumstances the horse was succumbing to old age. Also the draw in todays race was bad. Horses from that part of the draw win on average half as often as they should. Marry that stat with the earlier stat for 9yos and that's why she came 12/12 today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted April 24, 2013 Author Share Posted April 24, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline Cheers for your message Cowan. I do normally start to doubt horses as they get older but didn't know those specific stats. I sometimes get drawn into backing the older ones because they do pop up at big prices from time to time but as you say its about picking the right ones. I considered 12 year old Eijjaaz in the 4.45 at Catterick but decided against it - he then came 2nd, beaten a head at 20-1. He did have the low draw though! Bank now 145.55 NGS [h=2][/h] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted April 24, 2013 Author Share Posted April 24, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline 4.35 at Beverly Fancy Dolphin Village - 14 points win at 7/2 with Paddy Power - should improve for firm ground and this is easier than what he faced LTO. On the other hand the favourite Nine Iron is switching from A/W and fancy he is not the same horse on good to firm ground based on his Damsire and his one run on that ground. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline 7.20 at Newcastle 13 points win on Petrol at 11/4 with William Hill. Made a lot of late headway LTO over C and D to come second and races off the same mark today. The rain this morning at Newcastle will help him - on pedigree he should it softer than the G/F that it was this morning. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline 2 losers so far today. Not really close - 2nd and 4th. 7.50 at Newcastle Border Bandit - 7 points win and 7 points place on Betfair at 6.6 and 1.83 Has won off higher marks, should be suited by the run of the race and was a bit unlucky LTO. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline Another loser - jockey almost seemed keen to find trouble. Bit unlucky and came 5th - wouldn't have won but might have got a place. One last try for tonight - Newcastle 8.20 Boxing Shadows - 6 points win and 6 points place on Betfair at 8.6 and 2.54 respectively. Should like the conditions, decent draw and lacl of stand outs in the field. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline No where close. Another disaster of a day. 4 losers. Bank now 92.55. Must do better .... or walk away. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted April 30, 2013 Author Share Posted April 30, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline 3.40 at Yarmouth Galician is the favourite and I'm not keen on him, I suspect he was seen to best effect last time out and offers no value. I don't like Swiss Cross - he seems to be best at Epsom. I've put 7 points on King of Jazz in the Betfair place market at 2.00. He has a good draw and was better than the bare result LTO. He has a poor win record and whilst I think that may be nothing more than bad luck I'm not going to back him to win. The interesting horses are all at the bottom of the market. I would not be surprised to see Princess of Orange, Bayleyf or Karam Albaari hit the places at big prices - they could equally run shockers but they all seem to have ability if ready for their seasonal debut. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted April 30, 2013 Author Share Posted April 30, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline Won some back at last! King of Jazz never in danger of winning but sneaked 3rd. Something was not right with Galicean he was eased off earlyish and came last. Swiss Cross came 5th. Karam Albaari and Princess of Orange came 6th and 7th respectively, Princess of Orange having missed the start did fairly well. Bayleyf came 2nd last. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted April 30, 2013 Author Share Posted April 30, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline 17.20 at Bath Picansort to place - 1.80 in the Betfair place market - 8 points. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted April 30, 2013 Author Share Posted April 30, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline Exeter 5.35 Back to lay on Betfair on Might Monty - backed at 6.0 for 9 points, going to lay 9 points at 4.1 and lay another 9 points at 2.1 NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted April 30, 2013 Author Share Posted April 30, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline Picansort came 4th - 9 point loss on that. Mighty Monty hit 2.60 in the run before fading badly so break even on that one. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted May 1, 2013 Author Share Posted May 1, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline 1.24 points down on the day yesterday. Bank now 91.31 15.20 Pontefract Looked at this race in a fair bit of detail and reasons to like quite a few. The only one I really can't have is Eastward Ho. Don't think the ground and course will see him to best effect. So 3 point place lay on Betfair at 4.0 - Risking 9.0 to win 2.90 NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted May 2, 2013 Author Share Posted May 2, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline Eastward Ho came 7th of 10 so successful lay there. Bank now 94.21. Chepstow 7.10 I like the top 2 in the market here. Just going to go for both in the place market on Betfair - Frozen Over - 4 points at 2.04 Sharp and Smart - 4 points at 2.00 Need both to come good to make a profit but if only one hits the places would only make a small loss. I really cannot see them both disappointing. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted May 2, 2013 Author Share Posted May 2, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline Sharp and Smart was well backed and one with a bit on hand. Frozen over made late headway to sneak 3rd so both bets won. 19.40 at Chepstow No recent form and little backclass but going for Tooley Woods in the Betfair place market 4 points at 2.48 in the Betfair place market. However, Jockey, Trainer, Sire and Damsire are all positives at this course and LTO he raced keen, was raced wide without much effort to give him any cover and his jockey didn't seem overly determined in the straight. His trainer has no other runners at the course tonight and I would hope they will be going all out tonight. In all the circumstances I would hope he can finish in the 1st 4 tonight. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted May 2, 2013 Author Share Posted May 2, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline Very good ride by Cathy Gannon. Tooley Woods won. Slightly disappointed I didn't back him to win or indeed put more money on the place market but being very cautious these days after losing a chunk of my bank. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted May 2, 2013 Author Share Posted May 2, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline 20.10 at Chepstow 5 points in the Betfair place market on the favourite Falasteen - has good recent form on Poly, plenty of back class and I think he should do well at the course. In this regard whilst he has never raced at Chepstow before but has good record on undulating courses. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted May 2, 2013 Author Share Posted May 2, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline Falasteen was poor. Never threatened. So 3 winning bets and 1 losing bet tonight. Bank now 102.81 NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted May 3, 2013 Author Share Posted May 3, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline 15.20 8 points win on Musikhani to win at 2.90 on Betfair. I fancy him to come on from his last run and on pedigree and trainer stats should like the course. The one I don't like is Flashheart - he may well improve and could well win but not convinced he will be suited to the course and the trainers horses running 1st time out this year have yet to do well. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted May 3, 2013 Author Share Posted May 3, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline Flashheart beat Musikhani into 2nd! 8 points down there. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted May 3, 2013 Author Share Posted May 3, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline 16.50 at Chepstow Not keen on Black Truffle and I think Baltic Gin may be a completely different horse on firm ground. So, laying Black truffle on Betfair place market 3 points at 2.58 (risking 4.74 points)and backing Baltic Gin in the Betfair place market 2.90 points at 5.4 The bottom line with all that being if Black Truffle doesn't hit the places then at worst I'll come out even. NGS NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGS Posted May 3, 2013 Author Share Posted May 3, 2013 Re: NGS's In depth Form Study - Take 2 - Discipline, Discipline, Discipline Black truffle was supported near to the off but bombed. Baltic Gin made fair bit of lateway to come 3rd, a head behind the 2nd (but only 2 places) so broke even on the race. NGS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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