BBOTD Saturday 13th

[cpo]

Apologies for putting this one up so early but I am going away for the weekend. 2.55 Doncaster Merchant of Dubai 0.5pt EW @ 25/1 PaddyPower I quite like the look of the outsider of the field for this. Merchant of Dubai hasn’t won a race since 2010 and has come a long way down the handicap as a result. It may be the horse is finished and is completely regressive but I am happy to give him one more chance. In his best days he was rated as high as 101 and mixing it in group/listed class races. He is clearly not the same horse nowadays but off a lowly mark of 76 (has to race from 3lbs out of the handicap) tomorrow he may just outrun his odds. Throughout his career, his record when returning from over 100 days off the track is good despite him not winning many of those races. His record reads 3-3-1-5-9 and at first glance you think that’s not too impressive. The 2^nd of those thirds was a cracking run in a conditions race at Newmarket where he was racing off a mark of 92 and the 2 horses that finished ahead of him where rated in the 100’s. He was beaten 5 lengths by the winner Ajhar but was racing off the same weight despite being rated 11lbs inferior. The only win when returning from a lengthy break actually came over CD when winning the Doncaster Shield in 2010, which was a hugely impressive performance as he and the 2^nd horse pulled 12 lengths clear of the 3^rd horse Hidden Brief. His 5^th placed effort came in a listed handicap when returning from a 383-day absence. He was beaten 2.5 lengths into 5^th by the Globetrotting Red Cadeaux with Ebor winner Moyenne Corniche and group 3 winner Fox Hunt also finishing ahead of him. The last of those efforts returning from a lengthy absence came in the Chester Cup last year where the whole field was ridiculously strung out at the finish. He finished 9^th of 16 but I would happily put a line through that run as Chester is certainly not every horses cup of tea and that was his first attempt over 2m. He has had 3 career runs over CD resulting in a 6^th of 23, a 1^st from 7 and a 3^rd from 23. That would suggest to me that he does go well here. I have a feeling first time out may just be the best time to catch this horse so I am happy to take my chance tomorrow. He hasn’t even looked like winning in his previous 8 runs but I get the feeling his run in the Chester Cup on his reappearance last year may have ruined him for the whole of last season (nothing other than the winner, that finished 11^th or better has won a race on the flat since). As much as I am hoping he can run into a place here, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finishing tailed off. Ground isn’t a worry as he does have some very solid runs on the surface although he may just prefer it slightly easier. Jim Goldie has had a couple of recent winners and PJ McDonald has actually won on the horse in the past. I don’t like the jockey if I am honest but he is 1 from 2 on him.

[Smarty72]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 13th 14.40 Kempton (AW) - Glean - Win @ 13/8 Bet365 BOG 3yo with 4 races last year. Won on debut, then 2nd, 3rd and 6th. Best to ignore the last run which was on heavy ground with the other 3 all on good. The standout performance is the 3rd in a group 3 2yo race when beaten by Havana Gold by 1.75L. A repeat of that run will see him go very close.