WC > Africa Qualification > 26 March

[McNasara]

[TABLE=class: couponTable]

[TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Tuesday 26 March 2013[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [TH] [/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Egypt v Zimbabwe (17:00 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.22 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 19 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.38 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Algeria v Benin (19:30 GMT) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.41 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.9 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 10.5 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.85 %[/TD] [TD=class: tvListings][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[McNasara]

Re: WC > Africa Qualification > 26 March Egypt v Zimbabwe Duel of the only group that doesn't contain a single team which took part at the African Nations Cup. The Pharaohs would have done a great job with the new three points and would almost have qualified to the next round (didn't participate in World Cup since 90' in Italy). And they're certainly very motivated for that after shocking elimination against Central African Republic in the ACN qualifiers last summer. About 30 thousand fans will be a great boost for them after served suspension for an incident in Port Said, and another good news is that their league has started again. Egypt have no defeat in WC qualification at home since 2004. Contrary, Zimbabwe didn't won away WC qualifying match for the past 9 years. This is a crucial game for the Warriors who are not in a good mood. They've won only one point from two games, and there is a financial crisis due to they haven't played a friendly match before this meeting and arrived in North Africa later than they wanted. Another big advantage for home side should be coach Bob Bradley. He was very successful with the U.S. national team, and is already a year and a half in Egypt. On the other hand, Klaus Deiter Pagels (NT adviser since 2010) is the new coach of Zimbabwe from four months ago, and had only one game with the team (2:1 in friendly versus Botswana). Otherwise, he had no noticeable role before. Goalkeeper and captain Kapini and midfielder Nyandoro are out because they end their NT career and a lot of other experienced players (including strikers Malajila and Nkhatha) didn't called. Apparently they're preparing a team for the future and therefore it's not surprising that many players are under 23 and playing in the local league (which starts in a week). Another bad news is that vice-captain and first-choice goalkeeper Washington Arubi and chief striker Knowledge Musona are in doubt. Egyptians had a couple of bad results in friendlies earlier this year, but a convincing win in last game (10:0 against Swaziland) has improved their mood. Their players are without a doubt much better and there is no important missing. The time difference and different weather conditions between the two countries are not noticeable here, but everything else is in favor of the home team. I'm going with higher stake than usual, hoping that I'll forget poor weekend with these two valuable bets. Egypt -1 EH @1.83 Paddy Power medium stake Egypt -2 EH @3.40 Paddy Power low stake

[Fedar]

Re: WC > Africa Qualification > 26 March Algeria - Benin - Three teams competing for one spot, although in fact, Mali and Algeria are definitely classier than Benin, so I believe in the end it will be just these two fighting with each other for that one place. - If Algeria fails to win, this will leave them at third spot, 3 points behind Mali. - Benin without their two best players, who got injured: Sessegnon and Pote. - The best Algerian striker Rafik Djebbour (Olympiakos) is back with the national team after he missed the CAN. - Algeria's coach is Valid Halilhojic - a very experienced and high quality Bosnian coach. - Goal difference might be decisive here in this group. Indeed, Algeria has advantage after beating Rwanda 4:0 in the first round, but Mali is also welcoming Rwanda in June in a game when they can easily improve their goal difference. - Algerian fans are probably the best in Africa and the atmosphere will be scary for the guests. Here is a short video link to their first home game, where you can observe the atmosphere at the stadium: http://www.matchhighlight.com/latest-goals/fifa/algeria-4-0-rwanda-wc-2014-qualif/ Algeria -1.5 @ 2.10

[McNasara]

Re: WC > Africa Qualification > 26 March Probable Zimbabwe team: Washington Arubi, Partson Jaure, Ocean Mushure, Augustine Mbara, Lincoln Zvasiya, Archieford Gutu, Silas Songani, Denver Mukamba, Knowledge Musona, Khama Billiat, Abbas Amidu. Good news for the guests as first-choice goalkeeper Arubi and key striker Musona are ready. However, I've to be pleased because PP is decreased odds (1.83 to 1.67 and 3.40 to 2.88), fortunately after my post. Fedar, you're right. I'll write any further information about that match later.

[McNasara]

Re: WC > Africa Qualification > 26 March Algeria vs Benin The hosts will have great support from the stands, but this good team with a good coach will have also a lot of pressure after poor results in recent years. The Fennec Foxes failed to qualify for the final tournament of 2012 and they couldn't even to go through the group in South Africa, although they were one of the potential winners, in my opinion. Important players Bougherra (defender) and Djebbour (striker) are back in the team, but captain Lacen is suspended, another important midfielder Boudebouz and defender Mesbah are out for home side. There are also three debutants (Brahimi, Ghilas and Taider) who play very well in Europe and one of them is sure to play from the start. Their performance will depend on Djebbour who is much criticized for his poor performances with the national team, the opposite of great games with his club. On the other side, the Squirrels with French coach Manuel Amoros played some good football and had no defeat in four official games in 2012. He recalled important midfielder Mouri Ola Ogounbiyi and striker Razak Omotoyossi (who had been left out of the original 25-man squad) due to injuries of defender Adenon, captain Sessegnon (midfielder) and striker Pote, all key players. When I realized that even 20 degrees colder is in Alexandria than in Benin and that the guests are coming without three key players, Fedar's bet seems to me very good. But the fact is that they were preparing in Marseille for this match and they seem ambitious and won't easily give up on Brazil, according to their statements. Heavy pressure on home team, a great importance for both parties and a cautious approach from both sides are my expectations. Yup, Algeria is better team but Benin will probably play very defensively due to absence of key players. I can see results like 1:0, 2:0, 0:0 or 1:1, but if Djebbour's in a good mood then it can be a comfortable home win. I'll take risks, and believe that one of us will be right, maybe both of us, 2:0 - why not... under 2,5 goals @1.90 at local, @1.80 Paddy Power low stake

[McNasara]

Re: WC > Africa Qualification > 26 March Fedar, well done mate :clap If I find the time, I'll have to do a detailed review of all 54 countries in Africa, in the coming months... GROUP A South Africa were expected to dominate one of the weakest four-team sections, but a team with an unimpressive away record are two points behind Ethiopia and must visit Addis Ababa during June. Ethiopia are on the rise, competing in the Cup of Nations two months ago after a 31-year absence, with Salahdin Said a proven scorer and Shemeles Bekele a dazzling dribbler. GROUP B Tunisia are looking good for a final-phase slot with victories over Equatorial Guinea, Cape Verde Islands and Sierra Leone giving them a five-point advantage. It is difficult to imagine the experienced Carthage Eagles slipping under new coach Nabil Maaloul as they seek to atone for a disappointing first round exit from the recent Cup of Nations. GROUP C Tanzania have emerged as unexpected main challengers to hot favourites Ivory Coast, who are desperate to make Brazil having failed this year for the fifth consecutive Cup of Nations to justify favouritism. Ivory Coast are one point ahead of Tanzania, whose shock home win over four time qualifiers Morocco catapulted them into contention, and the Elephants must visit Dar es Salaam during June. GROUP D Zambia surrendered the advantage gained from a 'boardroom' victory over Sudan when they conceded a late goal with 10 men to drop two points in an away draw with minnows Lesotho. This result opens the door for 2006 and 2010 qualifiers Ghana, whose loss in Zambia will be irrelevant if they can win away to Sudan and Lesotho and at home to the Chipolopolo (Copper Bullets). GROUP E Congo Brazzaville are well placed with maximum points from three outings and a potentially crucial home fixture to come against surprise 2013 Cup of Nations runners-up Burkina Faso. Gabon and Niger appear out of contention, leaving Burkina Faso to try and overcome a six-point deficit after a terrible start in which they forfeited the point from a home draw with the Congolese and lost to the Gabonese. GROUP F It is proving tougher than expected for new African champions Nigeria with Malawi and Kenya holding the Super Eagles and Namibia defending bravely before conceding a match-winning late goal. Success-starved Kenya were denied victory in Calabar by a stoppage-time goal but new Algeria-born coach Adel Amrouche must be encouraged ahead of the return match in Nairobi during June. GROUP G Egypt may have been African champions a record seven times but American coach Bob Bradley knows what really matters is the World Cup with the Pharaohs' last appearance 23 years ago. After a routine victory over Mozambique, they exceeded expectations with a win in Guinea and a late victory against Zimbabwe leaves them five points clear and favoured to head the final standings. GROUP H Algeria shrugged off a disastrous 2013 Cup of Nations, in which they took one point from a possible nine after being touted as possible champions, by beating Benin to lead Mali on goal difference. Although Benin cannot be dismissed, the struggle for supremacy is likely to come down to the Desert Foxes and the Eagles with the outcome of their September showdown in Algeria probably crucial. GROUP I Fallen giants Cameroon are one point ahead of Libya and two above Democratic Republic of Congo in a tight contest that could go down to the wire between the Indomitable Lions and the Mediterranean Knights. Libya have two home fixtures to come compared with the one of Cameroon and the north Africans received a boost with African body CAF clearing them to play before their supporters after a long security-related ban. GROUP J Another intriguing mini-league with one-point gaps separating Senegal, Liberia, Angola and Uganda and the situation could become even tighter after the next round. A Senegal side coached by former France star Alain Giresse look strongest on paper with a Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse strike force, but 2006 qualifiers Angola could emerge surprise winners.

[Fedar]

Re: WC > Africa Qualification > 26 March Mate, I watched most of Egypt-Zimbabwe. I should say that was extremely unlucky. One shot on goal for the visitors, one lucky goal after terrible defending and goal-keeping. Egypt hit twice the cross bar and missed 6-7 other good chances. The real result here should have been 3-0 or 4-0 for the home team. You spotted right that Zimbabwe is too young squad and it was reflected in their defense being very disorganized and leaving plenty of empty space. However, probably your only analytical mistake was the home factor - indeed, there were fans allowed on the stadiums, but only limited number. And the stadium was really huge, so it looked like almost empty. If the stadium was allowed to be full, then without any doubt Egypt would have destroyed the visitors, but now the home factor was strongly reduced.

[McNasara]

Re: WC > Africa Qualification > 26 March Yep, but guests were very aggressive in the first half, and Pharaoh couldn't find their game. So the first half is expected to be finished goalless. In 2nd half, home team started to play much better after a great first goal from a free kick, and then they could to score a few more goals, but the opposite Musona deal well in the counter attack and kill my bet. It was limited to 10 thousand fans, although it was played at the stadium with capacity of 80 thousand.