Is there anything wrong with my betting system/technique?

[Combe]

I'm considering starting this sort of betting but am worried I haven't thought it all through and was hoping an experienced punter would be able to see if there are any mistake(s) I could potentially be making. I have no desire to start lusting after "big bucks", all I want is to earn SOME profit (relatively) risk-free so I can top up my wages from my part-time job. Profit is profit, right? It's essentially matched betting without the free bets. For example if I wanted to bet on Everton v Man City this weekend... Bet #1 - BACK Man City [William Hill] My Stake: £15.00 @ 2.05 £30.75 Potenial Return Bet #2 - LAY Man City [betfair] Backer’s Stake: £21.00 @ 2.22 £25.20 Liability Outcome A) Man City win - collect winnings from Ladbrokes and forfeit liability money from Betfair £30.75 - £25.20 = £5.55 PROFIT Outcome B) Man City lose/draw – lose stake at Ladbrokes and collect the Backer’s stake from Betfair minus 5% commission. £21.00 – 5% commission = £19.95 (- £15.00) = £4.95 PROFIT ^ As far as my amateur eyes can see there is nothing that can go wrong with that, and regardless of the result I would basically be making £5 profit for doing nothing? It just seems too good to be true because if you did this for say 10 games a week, you could probably make a decent profit without risking any money at all. Is there something I've missed? is this legal to do? Any advice for a newbie?

[Brettfair]

Re: Is there anything wrong with my betting system/technique? If Man City win in that scenario you'd have won £15.75 and lost £25.20. Thus making a loss of £9.45.

[longy70]

Re: Is there anything wrong with my betting system/technique? Combe you have counted your £15 stake as winnings if City win, thats ya mistake. 2.05 on Betfair is just over evens Rule is as long as you back at a bigger price than you lay then you will win everytime as long as stakes are correct

[Combe]

Re: Is there anything wrong with my betting system/technique? Thanks for the replies guys can't believe I made such a rookie mistake (I am a rookie, but still) I must of struggled to grasp the concept that my potential returns did not equal profit and forgot about stake as longy70 said. I even nearly deluded myself into thinking I'd make a profit here, but just to clarify if I made this bet below for the Norwich-Sunderland game.... Bet #1 - BACK Norwich My Stake: £10.00 @ 3.75 Estimated Returns: £37.50 Bet #2 - LAY Norwich [betfair] Backer’s Stake: £11.00 @ 4.1 Liability: £34.10 ....I would either; win 27.50 / lose 34.10 = £6.60 loss lose 10.00 / win 11.00 (-5% commision of £0.55) = £0.45 profit ?

[Brettfair]

Re: Is there anything wrong with my betting system/technique? That's correct. To make a guaranteed return you need the back odds to be greater than the lay odds.

[longy70]

Re: Is there anything wrong with my betting system/technique? Thats Correct

[razzpunter]

Re: Is there anything wrong with my betting system/technique? Brettfair has got it right, so i have nothing to add there. You seem to be coming at betting the right way. Caution is good, but there will always be some risk. You need to find a good betting system that involves calculating your own odds, which you can then compare to the odds posted by the betting sites. In so doing, you will limit your risk. I use the probability based betting model described in the ebook "predicting the outcomes of english premier league matches". The ebook is available on amazon, maybe itunes or nook too. Hope this helps.