Flemington Betting 09/03/2013

[DeanK]

[h=1]Flemington Betting: The Moment has arrived for Moody's gun to take out the Newmarket[/h]

FLEMINGTON RACE 6 @ 3:15PM AEDT: The Lexus Newmarket Handicap is a Group 1 1200m race where the 3.10 favourite with Betfair is MOMENT OF CHANGE. HOW THE RACE WILL BE RUN: For a Newmarket there doesn’t appear to be huge speed on paper. BARAKEY probably leads from barrier 13 with SATIN SHOES right there with him from barrier 12. BIG BUDDIE, UNDENIABLY and MOMENT OF CHANGE settle next in line from FONTELINA and BETTER THAN READY. The remainder of the field settle midfield or beyond in a race where the on-pacers might be suited. RACE ANALYSIS: MOMENT OF CHANGE resumed in the Lightning Stakes 3 weeks ago and arguably put in a career best run when he finished 2^nd to the great Black Caviar who managed to set the track record. He looked at home down the straight and the invincible mare wasn’t exactly storming away from him in the finish. He destroyed the remainder of the field in the race and looks well suited stepping up to the 1200m of todays race. He has drawn perfectly in 7 for a nice run just behind the leaders, he’s been set for this race and he looks the one to beat. I think he is a tad short in early markets but expect him to drift to his right price which is around 3.5-3.7. BARAKEY must defy a 96 year old drought of horses winning the race first up but he gets a pretty good opportunity here to break it as he looks the sole leader in the race and Flemington of late has been a track where it is hard to make considerable ground. He is undefeated after 11 starts and was a shock late scratching in the Oakleigh Plate which admittedly isn’t ideal. SPIRIT OF BOOM is by far the best value in the race. He doesn’t win out of turn but his run in the Oakleigh Plate where he got back and flashed home in the 2^nd quickest last 600m of the race to finish 3^rd. His form down the straight is outstanding and at 23’s in early markets he is massive value. http://www.betzone.com.au/flemington-betting-the-moment-has-arrived-for-moody-s-gun-to-take-out-the-newmarket

[DeanK]

Re: Flemington Betting 09/03/2013 [h=1]Flemington Betting: In a tricky Australian Cup the value is the big grey horse Glass Harmonium[/h]

FLEMINGTON RACE 7 @ 4:00pm AEDT: The Darley Australian Cup is a 2000m Group 1 Weight For Age race for 3 year olds and upwards where the 4.2 favourite with Bet365 is GREEN MOON. HOW THE RACE WILL BE RUN: The speed looks ok. GLASS HARMONIUM will lead if he jumps away well, if he doesn’t then FIVEANDAHALFSTAR will. MOURAYAN will go forward as might his stable mate and race favourite GREEN MOON. MAWINGO probably settles just off the pace from barrier 5 and expect SUPER COOL to do so too from barrier 3. The rest settle midfield or beyond in a race where all horses will get their chance barring track bias and luck. RACE ANALYSIS: Tricky Australian Cup to work out with 3 main form lines to decipher. The first is the tradition path to the Australian Cup that sees horses go through the ORR over 1400m then the Peter Young Stakes over 1800m then into the Australia Cup. MAWINGO and MR MOET are the only two horses to run in both those races and the pair performed well in each race. FORETELLER, ÉCLAIR SURPRISE, and TANBY went straight into the Peter Young Stakes either first up or off different races. There was nothing between a handful of horses in that race, with FORETELLER winning thanks to gaining the inside passage in the straight. MR MOET was clearly the run of the race. The 2^nd form line is horses coming through the Futurity over 1400m and they include GREEN MOON, GLASS HARMONIUM, and MOURAYAN. http://www.betzone.com.au/flemington-betting-in-a-tricky-australian-cup-the-value-is-the-big-grey-horse-glass-harmonium