Simonsig suffers set back

[fintron]

Ante-post Arkle favourite suffered a set back ahead of a planned prep run at Newbury this weekend. The results from a trachea wash test came back short of 100 %, which his trainer was looking for to continue running him in the race. The link to the story on the RP is here http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=1036448 It just shows how fragile these beasts are. It is only a minor set back, but minor set backs can cause horses to miss races and underperform even if they reluctantly take part. Makes the Arkle somewhat interesting. Although, from a form view, its easy to see why Simonsig is odds on for the Arkle, there is a massive argument for smashing on Overturn now. He's 4/1 with 1/5 odds EW or 7/2 1/4 odds EW. We know he's good enough as he ran a blinder to finish second in the Champion Hurdle last year and this is a race that can cut up badly. Could easily be six runners, and he is one that will relish a small field, where his slick jumping and pace can catapult him away from the closers, like Simonsig up the hill.

[fintron]

Re: Simonsig suffers set back I tried to ignore ante post Cheltenham betting this year but have caved into temptation. How on earth is Long Run 7/1? He's a previous winner of the race, still improving at eight, and won the King George last time. I can understand why him and Silviniaco Conti are similarly priced, given the Betfair Chase result, but Silvy came into that race with the benefit of a run (hacked up in the Charlie Hall) and Long Run is notoriously rusty first time out - despite the rubbish peddled to the press saying otherwise. How can a horse like Sir Des Champs, whose bubble has burst in Ireland, be 9/2 when Long Run is 7/1? It doesn't make sense. Bobs Worth looks to have an obvious chance and bids to do a Denman, he's classy, he stays's, but if he's generally 3/1 should Long Run really be 7/1?