Torque's Tournament Tips

[Torque]

The purpose of this thread is to keep a record of my tennis outright tips for the remainder of this season, and possibly beyond if it goes well. I post quite regularly on the tennis forum, and I'm starting to find that I prefer ante post betting. I always use Betfair, and I stake for an even return which is equivalent to 2% of my bank. I never back a player if his price is lower than evens, meaning that the higher the odds are, the lower my stake is. Sometimes I will place lay bets if I think that the price for a player to win a tournament is too short, and in these cases I stake in exactly the same way as if I was backing - I don't lay above evens, so the shorter the price, the lower my liability. I also lay off (or back out) part of my stake if any of my picks make the final, and I do this as a way to minimise bank variance. I will mainly be posting at the end of each week, when I will settle previous bets as well as post new ones. I will post the picks for this week in the next post, as well as the reasoning behind them. Hopefully everything that I've written makes sense, and if anyone has any questions please let me know.

[Torque]

Re: Torque's Tennis Tournament Tips Lay Rafael Nadal to win ATP VTR Open @ 1.45 Betfair If this isn't the time to lay Nadal to win a tournament at a short price, then I don't know when is. He has been off the tour for six months due to injury, and although I'm sure he is happy with his fitness, at a tournament like this I don't think he will want to push himself too hard. He has been quoted as saying that results are the least important thing right now, and I think he will be using this tournament to get some match practice and to perhaps work on his game in general. I think his main focus will be the European clay court swing, where he should be looking to get into top form ahead of the French Open. I also think that if his knees bother him even in the slightest, there is a chance that he could retire during a match or pull out of the tournament. Although I don't like the look of any other players enough to back them, I think Nadal has to be opposed here. Back Gael Monfils to win ATP Open Sud de France @ 17.00 Betfair I think Monfils is worth a look in this tournament, which is on home soil for him and played in conditions that he enjoys. He is in the top half of the draw, and he is unseeded as his ranking has slipped due to being injured at the end of last season. This means he is entered into the draw in the first round, and if he comes through his match against Bemelmans he will face Gasquet in the second round. He has a good record against Gasquet, and coupled with his encouraging start to the season, I think he will be confident of beating him if they meet. As Berdych and Gasquet may not be able to give of their best due to their recent Davis Cup exertions, and given that they should be the main competion for Monfils in his half of the draw, I think there is some value in backing him to go well this week. Back Lukas Lacko to win ATP PBZ Zagreb Indoors @ 26.00 Betfair ​I think Lacko could have a good week in Zagreb. He seems to play his best tennis indoors, and he has done well at this tournament in recent years. I think he stands a good chance of getting to the quarters, where he could possibly face Melzer, and if he were to get to the semis, he might meet Seppi. I think he is capable of beating both players in these conditions, particularly as Melzer is out of form whilst Seppi was playing Davis Cup matches on clay recently. Lacko hasn't played since the Australian Open, so he should be feeling fresh and ready to go in an environment that he likes, and I think he can build on what has been a good start to the season for him.