Does distance matter? An away betting model (663 bets, +10.13 points, +1.5% ROI)

[JohnPR]

Take a look at any league table results and you will see that home advantage is an easily identifiable factor affecting a team's performance. I have always wondered if home advantage is distance dependent, because it is generally considered to be so but I have never seen it shown. If you look at the attached graph I have plotted result against away team distance traveled for every team in the English Premier from season 2000 to date. The results show that distance is a determining factor for team performance. For teams traveling the shortest distance of 2Km the average chance of a home victory is 0.0002(slope)*2(km)+0.4313(intercept)=0.43(43%) and the average chance of an away victory is -0.0001(slope)*2(km)+0.2892=0.29(29%) For teams traveling the longest distance of 479 the average chance of a home victory is 0.0002(slope)*479(km)+0.4313(intercept)=0.53(53%) and the average chance of an away victory is -0.0001(slope)*479(km)+0.2892=0.24(24%) So a home team's chance of victory can be increased by as much as 10% and the away team's chance of loss can be increased by 5%. I have distance adjustment figures for 18 leagues and have been betting away wins since the end of September 2012 with good results. Over the coming weeks I will (hopefully) be posting my bets with more details of how the away betting model is calculated. I am going to start with a 100 point bank and bet 1 point per match. New bets[TABLE=width: 1175]

[TR] [TD=class: xl24, width: 100, bgcolor: lightblue]Match date[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightblue]League[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightblue]Home team[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightblue]Away team[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 50, bgcolor: lightblue]Price[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightblue]Bookmaker[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightblue]Bet time[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl24, width: 100, bgcolor: lightcyan]04 Feb 2013[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]Dutch Eerste Divisie[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Den Bosch[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Eindhoven[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 50, bgcolor: lightcyan]4.92[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]Pinnacle[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]04 Feb 2013 @ 11:12[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl24, width: 100, bgcolor: lightcyan]04 Feb 2013[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]Dutch Eerste Divisie[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Go Ahead Eagles[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Veendam[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 50, bgcolor: lightcyan]6.35[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]Pinnacle[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]04 Feb 2013 @ 11:12[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl24, width: 100, bgcolor: lightcyan]05 Feb 2013[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]England Division 1[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Oldham Athletic[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Yeovil Town[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 50, bgcolor: lightcyan]2.91[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]Pinnacle[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]04 Feb 2013 @ 10:44[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl24, width: 100, bgcolor: lightcyan]05 Feb 2013[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]England Division 1[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Scunthorpe United[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Portsmouth[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 50, bgcolor: lightcyan]5.83[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]Pinnacle[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]04 Feb 2013 @ 10:44[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl24, width: 100, bgcolor: lightcyan]05 Feb 2013[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]England Division 2[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Cheltenham Town[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Bristol Rovers[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 50, bgcolor: lightcyan]4.47[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]Pinnacle[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]04 Feb 2013 @ 10:55[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl24, width: 100, bgcolor: lightcyan]05 Feb 2013[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]England Division 2[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Port Vale[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]AFC Wimbledon[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 50, bgcolor: lightcyan]6.54[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]Pinnacle[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]04 Feb 2013 @ 10:55[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl24, width: 100, bgcolor: lightcyan]09 Feb 2013[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]Germany Bundesliga[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Borussia Dortmund[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Hamburger SV[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 50, bgcolor: lightcyan]13.38[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]Pinnacle[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]04 Feb 2013 @ 11:00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl24, width: 100, bgcolor: lightcyan]09 Feb 2013[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]Germany Bundesliga[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Eintracht Frankfurt[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Nürnberg[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 50, bgcolor: lightcyan]4.1[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]Pinnacle[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]04 Feb 2013 @ 11:00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl24, width: 100, bgcolor: lightcyan]09 Feb 2013[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]Germany Bundesliga[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Greuther Fürth[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Wolfsburg[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 50, bgcolor: lightcyan]2.47[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]Pinnacle[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]04 Feb 2013 @ 11:00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl24, width: 100, bgcolor: lightcyan]09 Feb 2013[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]Italy Serie A[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Juventus[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Fiorentina[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 50, bgcolor: lightcyan]5.93[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]Pinnacle[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]04 Feb 2013 @ 11:06[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl24, width: 100, bgcolor: lightcyan]09 Feb 2013[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]Germany Bundesliga[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Bayern München[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Schalke 04[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 50, bgcolor: lightcyan]13.07[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]Pinnacle[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]04 Feb 2013 @ 11:00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl24, width: 100, bgcolor: lightcyan]10 Feb 2013[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]Italy Serie A[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Cagliari[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Milan[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 50, bgcolor: lightcyan]2[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]Pinnacle[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]04 Feb 2013 @ 11:06[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl24, width: 100, bgcolor: lightcyan]10 Feb 2013[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]Italy Serie A[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Sampdoria[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Roma[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 50, bgcolor: lightcyan]2.18[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]Pinnacle[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]04 Feb 2013 @ 11:06[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl24, width: 100, bgcolor: lightcyan]10 Feb 2013[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]Germany Bundesliga[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Augsburg[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Mainz 05[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 50, bgcolor: lightcyan]2.75[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]Pinnacle[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]04 Feb 2013 @ 11:00[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl24, width: 100, bgcolor: lightcyan]10 Feb 2013[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]Germany Bundesliga[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Freiburg[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 250, bgcolor: lightcyan]Fortuna Düsseldorf[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 50, bgcolor: lightcyan]6.53[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]Pinnacle[/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 175, bgcolor: lightcyan]04 Feb 2013 @ 11:00[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[MPLouis]

Re: Does distance matter? An away betting model I like local derbies and I like your idea of finding value on distance. Looking at your four English games, three of the four away clubs are a long way from the home team (Yeovil @ Oldham, Portsmouth @ Scunthorpe and Wimbledon @ Port Vale). So I'm slightly confused by these picks.