Backing No Chance Homers

[Kingspur]

I'm not sure whether I am allowed to mention the website, but check out the current thread run by Matthew with a two week free trial. That is what I've used to come up with this. I've found that a ridiculously simple but seemingly profitable strategy is to back complete no hopers when they are at home in the big three European leagues (English Premier League, German Bundesliga and Spanish La Liga) I looked at it yesterday and would have won with Newcastle beating Chelsea at 4.33 and Granada beating Real Madrid at 10.50. Since Season 2000/01 it would have produced an average yield of close to 10%, and since 2009 that figure is closer to 20%. So I am looking to start this for the rest of the season but I have a question. Is there a particular staking strategy that works best for low strike rate high return strategies. Expected SR is around 15-20% I was thinking some sort of % of bank staking plan but to be honest I have not done too much research into the pros and cons of staking plans? Any advice would be most welcome thanks

[Rasssah]

Re: Backing No Chance Homers Interesting findings! I prefer to use fixed win/risk stake plan as this minimizes the variance which is especially preferable when playing with a low strike rate. The basic idea is that if the odds are higher than 2.00 you lower the stakes so that the winnings are capped at the preferred level. For example if you use 3 units (could for example be equal to 3% of your BR) as your standard stake, then for a bet with 5.00 odds you would bet 3/(5-1) = 0,75 units. For odds under 2.00 you would still only bet 3% of your BR. You can read more about how the plan works here. The downside of this is that it does not take into consideration how big your edge is, if for example the 10+ odds bets are the most profitable, this will not be reflected in your stakes, but you could get around this by setting a higher maximum stake when you think your edge is bigger. Lastly, keep the stakes low, definitely under 1% of your BR! With such low strike rates, the losing streaks can be massive.