BBOTD Saturday 2nd February

[Lodge]

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[Lodge]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 2nd February 2.20 – Lingfield – Aqua Ardens @ 14/1 Bet365 I’ve been waiting for this one to return to the AW for quite a while now and he finally does tomorrow. Has some decent form in AW maidens, the stand out piece being a 2^nd place to Prodigality who is now rated 95. He started off life in handicaps off a mark of 77, and wasn’t disgraced off that mark on his handicap debut either, which came at this course. He then went onto turf and had 4 starts where he failed to even place once, this has dropped him down the handicap to a mark of 65, which I think he could fully well exploit tomorrow returned to his favoured surface. Pitched straight into a class 6 handicap, and although it is reasonably competitive, the majority of the in-form horses in this are shouldering penalties for recent performances and may find this harder. The one negative is the 129 day break but he hails from a yard with a good AW strike rate and I’m sure they can ready one. Runs over 6f, the trip he won a maiden over and has a good draw in stall 2. I could well be barking up the wrong tree with this one but I think the fact that the trainer has stuck with him despite his bad form over the summer says alot and they could just have planned to take advantage of his falling mark on the AW. He’s still unexposed and although the market will probably give a good idea of his chances I’m happy taking the early price which I feel is generous.