Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup

[Sir Puntalot]

:ok

[voodoo child]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup Wyck Hill beat Katenko at Ascot from 6lb out of the handicap and Venetia William's French import has since won impressively at Sandown and Cheltenham, putting himself into the Gold Cup picture. Bridgwater will see how Wyck Hill fares at Kempton before deciding on a Gold Cup challenge, although he feels the Grand National could be the race for him. "I was rubbing my hands watching Katenko, it makes us look a very well-handicapped horse," said Bridgwater. "I've always wanted to run in the Racing Plus Chase next and nothing has changed. "He'll get an entry for the National tomorrow as well. "The Gold Cup is wide open this year so if we were to win well at Kempton, we'd probably take our chance because Bobs Worth has had his problems and I still think Long Run is the one to beat. "I've no doubt in my mind that our horse is better than Katenko. He's improved bundles since the Ascot race and Kempton has always been the target. "If we're third or fourth at Kempton, he'll probably go straight to the National. "If he wins he'd be handicapped out of the races at the Festival, you're better off trying to get placed in the Gold Cup rather than giving lumps of weight away, like Malcolm Jefferson said about Cape Tribulation."

[bartrum]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup just listened to an interview on atr.... hunt ball out the gold cup, anthony knott says he will be entered in the Byrne Plate cause he needs a winning bet... fair play forhis honesty. Cant see a market for this race yet!!!

[beaker1]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup

just listened to an interview on atr.... hunt ball out the gold cup' date=' anthony knott says he will be entered in the Byrne Plate cause he needs a winning bet... fair play forhis honesty. Cant see a market for this race yet!!![/quote'] hunt ball 10/1 fav with w/hill

[cpo]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup The more I look at the race the more I feel it's between Bobs Worth and SDS... probably just favouring Bobs Worth at the moment

[NewPunter]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup THE BETFRED CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP Class 1, Grade 1, £550,000 Total Prize Fund. Cheltenham, 3.20pm, Friday, March 15, 2013. Three miles, two and a half furlongs. For 5yo+ which are allotted a rating of 130 or more by the BHA Head of Handicapping following a review of the horses entered and after taking account of races run up to and including March 9 - horses which are not qualified for a rating in GB, IRE or FR may also be entered & such horses may be eligible providing the Handicapper is satisfied that the horse’s racecourse performances up to and including March 8 would merit a minimum rating of 130 (the decision of the BHA Head of Handicapping shall be final). Weights: 5yo 11st 8lb, 6yo+ 11st 10lb. Allowances: mares 7lb. Entries closed January 8, entries revealed January 9 (40 entries), scratchings deadline February 12 (24 remain), £27,500 supplementary entry stage & six-day confirmation stage March 9. Final 48-hour declaration stage, 10.00am, March 13. Form figures supplied by Weatherbys and are correct up to and including the racing of Monday, February 11. Form Horse Age Owner Trainer 1/1321-1 BOBS WORTH (IRE) 8 The Not Afraid Partnership Nicky Henderson F13-F111 BOG WARRIOR (IRE) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Tony Martin IRE 411-0511 CAPE TRIBULATION 9 David Abell Malcolm Jefferson U3P4-12 CAPTAIN CHRIS (IRE) 9 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs 3122-242 CHAMPION COURT (IRE) 8 Martin Boothright Martin Keighley 45041-5 CHINA ROCK (IRE) 10 Michael O'Flynn Mouse Morris IRE 1/1211-4 FINIAN'S RAINBOW (IRE) 10 Michael Buckley Nicky Henderson 23-4232 FIRST LIEUTENANT (IRE) 8 Gigginstown House Stud Mouse Morris IRE 251U/1P/2 IMPERIAL COMMANDER (IRE) 12 Our Friends in the North Nigel Twiston-Davies 30/1122/ JESSIES DREAM (IRE) 10 David Johnson Gordon Elliott IRE 04-F0211 KATENKO (FR) 7 Andrew Brooks Venetia Williams 2213-21 LONG RUN (FR) 8 Robert Waley-Cohen Nicky Henderson 13P-U11 MONBEG DUDE (IRE) 8 Oydunow Michael Scudamore 351/51-1 PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE (FR) 10 Andrea & Graham Wylie Willie Mullins IRE F1113-04 QUEL ESPRIT (FR) 9 Red Barn Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE 113-3361 QUITO DE LA ROQUE (FR) 9 Gigginstown House Stud Colm Murphy IRE 1241-111 SILVINIACO CONTI (FR) 7 Chris Giles & Potensis Limited Paul Nicholls 1111-241 SIR DES CHAMPS (FR) 7 Gigginstown House Stud Willie Mullins IRE 0P012-5P SUNNYHILLBOY (IRE) 10 J P McManus Jonjo O'Neill P11-062 TEAFORTHREE (IRE) 9 T437 Rebecca Curtis 2142-3P2 THE GIANT BOLSTER 8 Simon Hunt David Bridgwater P40P-21P WAYWARD PRINCE 9 John & Hilary Parrott Hilary Parrott 4P/33F0- WHAT A FRIEND 10 Ged Mason & Sir Alex Ferguson Paul Nicholls 11F2-11 WYCK HILL (IRE) 9 SAB Partnership David Bridgwater 24 entries remain after February 12 scratchings deadline 8 Irish-trained THE FOLLOWING 16 HORSES HAVE BEEN SCRATCHED: BOLD SIR BRIAN (IRE), CALGARY BAY (IRE), FLEMENSTAR (IRE), GRANDS CRUS (FR), HEY BIG SPENDER (IRE), HUNT BALL (IRE), JONCOL (IRE), JUNIOR, KAUTO STONE (FR), KNOCKARA BEAU (IRE), MAIL DE BIEVRE (FR), RIVERSIDE THEATRE, ROBERTO GOLDBACK (IRE), SIZING EUROPE (IRE), TIDAL BAY (IRE), WEAPON'S AMNESTY (IRE)

[bowles10]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup Is anyone concerned by the fact Bobs worth is likely to go to the race without a recent run? Its not my favourite lead up to the Gold Cup as i would rather be on something that has raced in a recent grade 1 i.e Irish hennessey, denman chase (AON), King George etc also just to note last years winners in this field BOBS WORTH CAPE TRIBULATION FINIANS RAINBOW SIR DES CHAMPS SUNNYHILLBOY TEA FOR THREE chuck in LONG RUN and that is the final list where i think the winner is coming from. The bigger priced ones could well run into a place although i expect Sunnyhillboy will go for the national again.

[Elchubb]

Not majorly, Gold cup is a race where's it's not always needed too of had a recent run and Bobs Worth goes well fresh! Don't expect Finians Rainbow or Teaforthree to line up either! Out of Sir Des Champ and Bobs Worth for me!

[bowles10]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup Bobs worth wins the hennessy by 3.25L getting 6lb from Tidal bay on G/Soft. F Lieutenant beaten 8.25l in 3rd getting 1lb from Bobs worth. The package in 4th. Teaforthree off 10st 6lb in 6th place. Tidal Bay won the lexus beating F Lieutenant a hd off level weights. Sir Des Champs a further 0.5L away in 4th Long run wins the KG from Captain Chris (neck) with a further 14l to the 3rd on heavy ground. S Conti won the betfair chase on Soft ground beating Long run by 2.5L with The Giant Bolster 4.5L away in 3rd S Conti followed by winning the Denman chase, beating TGB 7l and gave it 4lb. Cape Tribulation won the Argento beating Imperial commander 0.5L and gave it 6lb. Take into account: Long run has beaten the following Captain Chris twice Champion Court The giant Bolster three times (once at Chelt) Imperial commander (at chelt) Sunnyhillboy S Conti has beaten Long run The giant bolster The Giant bolster has beaten Long run (at chelt) Sir Des Champs has beaten Champion Court (At chelt) Captain Chris has beaten Finians rainbow twice (once at Chelt) Champion court The giant bolster First Lieutenant has beaten Sir des champs Teaforthree Bobs worth has beaten First lieutenant (at chelt) Teaforthree taking that into account, we have a list forming of: 1. Bobs worth (1-1-1-1) 1. S Conti (3) no festival run 2. Long run (3-3-1-3) 3. First lieutenant (1-2) 4. Captain Chris (1-2-1-P-4) 5. Sir des champs (1-1) For me, cheltenham form still counts and edges horses above S Conti here. The question is about this years King George, was it a decent enough race? Last year LR nearly beat Kauto but couldnt beat TGB in the Gold cup behind Synchronised. Is First Lieutenant the one to improve again and as its closely matched with Sir Des Champs, i doubt there is 2L between them again this year. Leaving Bobs worth as the stand out as we know LR can beat Captain Chris. If Bobs worth is as good as they say, it wins the race ahead of Long run and First Lieutenant/SDC The Hennessy performance was an eyecatcher but the lack of a run since then worries me still Conti is the wildcard with no festival experience and wins on predominantly flatter tracks whcih are far easier over 3m. Although a gutsy effort at Newbury last week is respected.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup Good analysis Bowles. Im am leaning the same way as you. Luckily I got on Bobs Worth before the Hennessy at a bigger price as Im not so sure his current odds reflect value. Sir Des Champs was so impressive at Cheltenham last year I think he would have a very good shout if he ran to that same level over this longer trip. First Lieutenant could be the slightly forgotten horse who will improve for the better ground. If Bobs Worth doesnt run to form for whatever reason (as he is seemingly held based on previous encounters) then I wouldnt be surprised if he won. Long Run isnt really a horse I like, although part of that is to do with the jockey. His jumping can be sloppy and I wasnt impressed by the way he finished his race in last years Gold Cup. I expected him to power home after the final fence but he didnt find much at all. S Conti has won as expected so far tbh, having a fitness edge over the field in the Betfair Chase and then out staying TGB on ground he would have enjoyed a lot more than the 2nd. Lack of course form is also a worry bearing in mind the strong trends associated with this. Should be a good race, especially considering TGB may show his best form at Cheltenham & the fact the Argento form is difficult to weigh up for Imperial Commander and Cape Tribulation!

[Mr Quisling]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup Despite Henderson saying Bobsworth goes well fresh, I'm sure it was always his intention to give it another run but was detered by the wet weather. I would certainly think its a big negative as his previous seasons good festival runs have always been after running 3/4 times previously in the season, therefore this season certainly bucks this trend, just like Hurricane Fly's unusual 1 run policy before Cheltenham backfired last year! Can anyone remember post war if any horse has actually won a Gold Cup on its second run of the season, or indeed its seasonal reappearance? Personally I feel Silvianico Conti has done all thats been asked of him this season, jumps well, has class, will improve for better ground and has one excellent run as a novice hurdler around the course only time he has been around it. He also thrashed Champion Court at Aintree last year much more impressively than SDS did at Cheltenham , though admitedly CC may have been slightly stretching his stamina and form slightly tailing off, SC beat him very easily indeed. Rock solid each way at the still available 5/1, though Im on at bigger and on the nose!

[Andymca]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup Although i agree not having a prep race is a negative against Bobsworth, I cant see anything else winning the race apart from maybe Silvianico Conti. I cant see Sir Des Champs doing much after his [h=2]run in the Henessey Gold Cup win at Leopardstown which Flemenster would have won but for a dismal ride by Andrew Lynch[/h]

[bowles10]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup

Although i agree not having a prep race is a negative against Bobsworth' date=' I cant see anything else winning the race apart from maybe Silvianico Conti. I cant see Sir Des Champs doing much after his run in the Henessey Gold Cup win at Leopardstown which Flemenster would have won but for a dismal ride by Andrew Lynch

form is out of the window at Cheltenham if you ask me, its a one off track and horses that act on it always do well, you cant write off SDC as its won twice at the festival already

[Andymca]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup point taken but SDC just doesnt seem to have the same buzz about him this year

[bowles10]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup

point taken but SDC just doesnt seem to have the same buzz about him this year

should be a great race, they will all be 100% for this one. It looks like we have different types of runners this year with Conti taking its chance. I still think Flight lieutenant should have a go also

[Andymca]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup First Lieutenant deserves his place for sure bit Bobsworth beat both him and Tidal Bay in the Hennessay and they went to beat SDC in the Lexus would loved to have seen Bog Warrior been given a run but looks like hes destined for the World Hurdle

[jbman30]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup I'm a big fan of Bog Warrior but I think it's similar to Big Bucks in the sense it hasn't took to fences as well as Hurdles so can see why they are going back down the hurdle route and hopefully if it lines up in the WH it will win as I think it's a very class horse and when stepped up to 3 miles last time he beat Zaidpour with a bit in hand.

[TheRat]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup Pretty sure Bog Warrior is missing the Festival

[jbman30]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup

Pretty sure Bog Warrior is missing the Festival

Bloody hell I was on at 16/1 only small E/W punt but still annoying when I thought it would go close. Any reasons in to why they will miss the fesitval again?

[Elchubb]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup Bog Warrior will only run in the World Hurdle if it comes up soft which is looking extremely unlikely, owners will leave it in until last minute just in case but i can't see it running!

[Andymca]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup When asked on Saturday in which race Bog Warrrior would run Ruby said: " Bog Warrior - World Hurdle or Gold Cup? Perhaps neither of the above. Or maybe he will be declared for both only to drop out at the eleventh hour in favour of a better fancied runner in the same colours? Rum lads, those Gigginstown characters."

[Andymca]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup

form is out of the window at Cheltenham if you ask me' date=' its a one off track and horses that act on it always do well, you cant write off SDC as its won twice at the festival already[/quote'] Funny enough this was posted on Sportinglife today Two of the most popular systems for narrowing down Cheltenham fields are to find last time out winners, and those who've run well at the Festival before. But which, if either, is the most reliable approach? Quite simply, the answer is that last time out winners can be followed with some confidence come the middle of March. Over the last three Festivals, there have been a grand total of 80 races. Of those 80, 44 were won by a horse whose final run before Cheltenham was a victorious one. A further 12 had placed, meaning that just 30 per cent of winners had finished outside of the frame in the run-up to the meeting. And, while it's little surprise to report that non-handicap races account for most winners - a total of 33 - an impressive 11 of the 34 handicaps have been won by a horse doubling up. That ratio improves further still if we ignore the Pertemps Final and the Coral Cup, two races that in the last three years have been won by horses beaten on their Cheltenham preparation runs. Doing so leaves 11 handicap winners from 28 races, and a further four who'd placed beforehand. The strongest races for last time out winners in recent years have been theArkle Trophy, Neptune Novices' Hurdle, World Hurdle, Champion Bumper and Foxhunters Chase, with each of the last three winners having arrived in winning form, although the World Hurdle's record owes everything to the phenomenal Big Buck's. The weakest non-handicaps are the RSA Chase, Ryanair Chase and Champion Chase, each of which have been won by a last time out winner just once in three years. In terms of the handicaps, two relatively new races stand out. The Martin Pipe Hurdle has seen its last two winners produced from those arriving in winning form, while both renewals of the Pulteney Novices' Chase fall into the same bracket. The latter race has only been a Festival feature for two years, but the 2012 renewal saw just 10 of the 20 runners arrive on the back of a win which means50 per cent could've been ignored. Festival form has been less significant, but it must be noted that both the Triumph Hurdle and Champion Bumper are contested by horses who haven't yet had the opportunity to strut their stuff at the March spectacular. Including those contests, 13 of the last 80 Festival winners were adding to previous successes, which is a relatively high percentage of 16.25. Just one of those came in a handicap, meaning that more than a quarter (26.09per cent) of graded races over the last three years have been won by a previous Festival winner. Eight of the 34 handicap winners had placed at a previous Festival, but in graded company previous efforts are more significant, with just under 70 per cent of winners having placed at a previous Festival. So, how can we use this information to our advantage? 1. Avoid last time out winners in the Pertemps Final and Coral Cup 2. Focus on last time out winners in the Pulteney and Martin Pipe 3. Hold previous Festival form in high regard in graded races 4. Focus on last time out winners in the Arkle, Foxhunters, Bumper and Neptune 5. Don't rule out last time losers in the Champion Chase, Ryanair and RSA

[bowles10]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup Thanks Andymca a lot of my trends are based on these facts but you do find a high % of the winners are 1st or 2nd LTO, ive got all those figures accumulated over the years its getting closer!!

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup PRICE much too high ! Loves it around Cheltenham ! Will be 100% fit for the big Day ! Ran a cracker on his come back from a massive absence ! Still has a low mileage, 20 races, winning 8 ! Toyed with Denman & Kauto Star in 2010 ! Jumps for Fun ! Play Safe with an Each Way bet ! If any of the YOUNG pretenders slip up, he will prove he can still be - THE DADDY ! He Is.......................Shhhhhhhhh

[BKI Punter]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup I really struggle to see anything beating an on-song Bob's Worth, but Captain Chris at 20s is still overpriced.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup

I really struggle to see anything beating an on-song Bob's Worth' date=' but Captain Chris at 20s is still overpriced.[/quote'] Yipp agree, might have a wee bit of Insurance on him, it would also be great for Richard Johnson, the last time he won it was 2000, 13 years, unlucky for some.

[Aidymac]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup I fancy Cape Tribulation to sneak a place, would any agree he has improved a lot and if you fancy Imperial Commander, you would have to think Cape won't be far away? Travels, stays, improving, proven at track

[Smarty72]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup To me probably only the top 8 horses now to consider as the winner of this race and these can be split into 2 groups. 1st Group - Top Contenders Bobs Worth (OR 171) - Best Price 3\1 NRNB Unbeaten at Cheltenham with 4 wins (3 over hurdles) and twice a festival winner. Will stay the distance, ground will be no concern and goes well fresh. Concern that he has not run since Hennessy at the beginning of December but Henderson may have pulled a masterstroke in avoiding the heavy ground of recent months. Worthy Favourite. Sir Des Champs (OR 166) - Best Price 4\1 NRNB Another unbeaten at Cheltenham in 1 hurdle and 1 chase both festival wins. Won the Irish Hennessy Gold Cup in February last time out. Ground will be no concern for this race. May find nothing extra up the hill in what is likely to be hard race as unproven at this distance. Still holds an entry in the Ryanair but this is the likely target. Silviniaco Conti (OR 175) - Best Price 5\1 NRNB Only run once at Cheltenham in a hurdle when 3rd of 5 in December 2010. Improving 7 year old from Paul Nicholls with 3 chases wins this year at 3m beating Long Run at Haydock and The Giant Bolster in the last 2 runs. All wins have been at course's with an easy finish. Will be a real test for the horse but can become the King of Ditcheat. Has had the benefit of recent run. Long Run (OR 172)- Best Price 13\2 NRNB 3rd last year and won this race the year before. Never been outside the first 3 in 16 chases and 8 hurdles and won the King George at Kempton on boxing day last time out. Ground will be no issue, distance no issue and looks a certainty to place. Obvious worrys about the jockey and with another jockey onboard would be my favourite. Would have preferred a run since the King George but Henderson seems to have avoided this due to the heavy ground. 2nd Group - Lively Outsiders First Lieutentant (OR 167) - Best Price 12\1 NRNB At this stage may run either here or the Ryanair. Really good chaser but Bob's Worth has the beating of this horse on Henessay Form. Ran well when just denied in the Irish Hennessay Gold cup last time. Has had one previous race at Cheltenham in the RSA last year when 2nd to Bob's Worth. Unlikely to get the better of Bob's Worth. Will stay the distance. Captain Chris (OR 169) - Best Price 16\1 NRNB Probably better over shorter but this is the clear target this year. 2nd in the King George to Long Run but tired badly at the end. The extra distance and finish at Cheltenham will probably prove to much. The Giant Bolster (OR 164) - Best Price 20\1 NRNB Ran 2nd in this last year and has good course form but is prone to mistakes twice unseating his rider here and falling once here. For me not one to consider as the possible winner. Cape Tribulation (OR 151) - Best Price 20\1 NRNB Won the Argento Chase here at Cheltenham and looks to be improving over fences still. Won over hurdles at last years festival on good ground. Will stay the distance and has good place claims. Best outsider bet to me but probably placed at best. Summary 3 horse race for me for the winner between Bob's Worth, Silviniaco Conti and Long Run. Cape Tribulation looks the best of the outsiders for a place at 20\1. Silviniaco Conti would be my win bet at this stage due to a recent run but at the moment will not be betting in this race as want to see how Henderson's horses perform on the first 3 days which should indicate that the lack of a recent run has had no effect on his runners and he made the correct decision to bypass races due to the heavy ground of the last few months.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup Very sad news IC wont now make it. Not good.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Friday 3:20: Cheltenham Gold Cup Still cant make my mind up on this one. Long Run has the most consistent form and will run his race. Silvi Conti probably has the best form of all the runners this year BUT he doesnt have a great record on undulating courses or stiff finishes which is a worry. Sir Des Champs has been improving with each run and Mullins is on fire. Loves it here and his chances improve with the less rain we get. Bobs Worth was brilliant in the Hennessy and the form has worked out well. The RSA form hasnt worked out badly either. I think he has the most potential of them all and like SDC he loves it here. I still think the price is a little too short for my liking.