Xtc12 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I want to dedicate this thread to Victor G, for putting it into my mind. Froment for telling me to forget about Victor G and his spam. Machine for giving me the website to find the longest winning streaks. The longest consecutive winning run stands with Benfica 29 back in 1971-73. I don't think there is any club strong enough (maybe Rangers in their circumstances) to go on a winning streak as above. I am going to back Double Chance against the teams on the streak Starting Bank will be 200. Staking Plan (>2.00 2% of bank) (>1.75 - 2.0 3% of Bank) (1.75 4% of Bank) Teams will be from any leagues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 Re: Streaking 6 Bets over the weekend. 2 Friday 3 Saturday 1 Sunday All bets Boylesports. Bet 1 Turkey Super League KDC Karabukspor (Winning Streak 4) v Kasimpasa X2 8 @ 1.67 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Re: Streaking I want to dedicate this thread to Victor G, for putting it into my mind. Froment for telling me to forget about Victor G and his spam. Machine for giving me the website to find the longest winning streaks. :lol Good luck, let's see where it goes. :ok Though, when it comes to betting on double chance, I always have a suggestion, hope you don't mind: double chance is always far more profitable at exchanges! At the moment, you can lay Karabuk at 2.22 at Betfair and 2.24 at Smarkets; that means, for 100 units risked, your profit is 82.0 units at Betfair and 80.6 units at Smarkets, or 77.8 units / 79.0 units respectively after commissions of 5% and 2%; that's some 16 to 18% more than 67 units you get at Boylesports, and that's huge, it can make difference between profitable and losing system! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 Re: Streaking Thanks Froment, but I don't really understand how betfair works. If I can lay Karabuk at 2.22 at 8 Pts do I get 17.76 back minus 5% commission, so returns 16.88. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VictorG Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Re: Streaking Nice game Xtc12..make this a competition?:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Re: Streaking Thanks Froment' date=' but I don't really understand how betfair works. If I can lay Karabuk at 2.22 at 8 Pts do I get 17.76 back minus 5% commission, so returns 16.88.[/quote'] You welcome! :ok And no, not like that. Well, sorry for widening my story off topic now, but since I mentioned it, let me explain. When you lay, you actually act like a bookmaker for punter who backs Karabuk (the one who offered odds of 2.22) - he will win and you will lose if Karabuk wins; you will win and he will lose if Karabuk does not win. Math is slightly different from one at bookmakers, but not complicated: punter who backs Karabuk risks amount of money called "Stake" or "Backer's Stake"; you risk amount of money called "Liability"; if Karabuk wins, he gets his stake back and wins your liability (minus commission), and you lose your liability; if Karabuk does not win, you get your liability back, and win his stake (minus commission), while he loses his stake; connection between those two amounts is simple: Liability = (Decimal Odds - 1) * Stake So, in your case, you want to risk 8 units; punter who takes the oposite bet will stake 8/(2.22-1) = 6.56 units, and that's your profit if bet is successfull. After comission, it's 6.23 units, as compared to 8*0.67 = 5.36 units you win at boylesports; as you see, profit is 16% higher, so why not take such a gift?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 Re: Streaking In the above case if Karabuk win how much do I lose? 9.76 or 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 Re: Streaking Bet 1 Turkey Super League KDC Karabukspor (Winning Streak 4) v Kasimpasa X2 8 @ 1.67 ;) 0-3 Returns 13.36 Start Bank 200 Bets 1 Won 1 SR 100% total Bet 8 Total Won 13.36 Profit 5.36 New Bank 205.36 ROI 67% Linfield match off so back tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Re: Streaking Good start! :clap In the above case if Karabuk win how much do I lose? 9.76 or 8 You lose 8 - I based calculation on the same risk as in your bet, in order to be comparable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 Re: Streaking Thanks froment but I think I will have to do a course on Betfair before I give it a bash. Will try and keep an eye on the Betfair price and keep the stats as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 Re: Streaking Bet 2 Blue Square South Basingstoke (Won last 3) v Welling (Won last 9) 1X 6.16 @ 1.75 Something has to go in this one hopefully it goes my way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Re: Streaking when it comes to betting on double chance' date=' I always have a suggestion, hope you don't mind: double chance is [b']always far more profitable at exchanges! Not necessarily in my experience ... you have to compare three alternatives: 1. Double Chance: Team A or Draw 2. Asian Handicap: Team A +0.5 3. Lay Team B on exchange I find any of these three can be best value - it varies from game to game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 Re: Streaking Bet 3 Belgian Pro league Lokeran (won last 3) v Anderlecht (Won last 10) 1X 5.97 @ 1.95 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Re: Streaking Not necessarily in my experience ... you have to compare three alternatives: 1. Double Chance: Team A or Draw 2. Asian Handicap: Team A +0.5 3. Lay Team B on exchange I find any of these three can be best value - it varies from game to game. Nice tip for AH +0.5, I have not at that market; but, as for difference in odds between double chance at bookies and laying other team at betfair, I have never seen bookies to offer better odds! I believe it could happen if there is no liquidity for that match on betfair (I reckon it could be the case with Basingstoke match), but one should check all three alternatives, you're right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 Re: Streaking Bet 2 Basingstoke v Welling 0-1 :cry Bet 3 Lokeran vAnderlecht 0-2:cry Total Loss for the day 12.13 Start Bank 200 Bets 3 Won 1 SR 33.3% total Bet 20.13 Total Won 13.36 Loss 6.77 New Bank 193.23 ROI -33.63% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 27, 2013 Author Share Posted January 27, 2013 Re: Streaking Bet 4 Maccabi Haifa (Won last 4) v H Tel Aviv (2-0-2) X2 5.79 @ 1.75 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 27, 2013 Author Share Posted January 27, 2013 Re: Streaking Bet 4 M.Haifa v H Tel Aviv 3-0 :cry Start Bank 200 Bets 4 Won 1 SR 25% total Bet 25.92 Total Won 13.36 Loss 12.56 New Bank 187.44 ROI -48.45% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 Re: Streaking Bet 5 Blue Square South Bath v Welling (Won last 10) 1X 5.62 @ 2.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Re: Streaking Hi there 2 quick questions: How many games in a row is a winning streak in your system? Whats the website you got from Machine? Best of luck. Leony Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VictorG Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Re: Streaking If I would just be allowed to answer this:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 Re: Streaking Bet 5 Blue Square South Bath v Welling (Won last 10) 1X 5.62 @ 2.0 Match Postponed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 Re: Streaking Bet 5 Irish league Donegal Celtic v Linfield (Won last 4) 3.74 @ 2.90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 Re: Streaking Hi there 2 quick questions: How many games in a row is a winning streak in your system? Whats the website you got from Machine? Best of luck. Leony At the moment I have 30 teams that are on winning streaks between 11 and 3 so they are what I classify as been on winning streaks. Machine gave me a website to find out what was the longest winning run. betexplorer and bari91 are good sites if you want to follow streaks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 Re: Streaking Bet 5 Irish league Donegal Celtic v Linfield (Won last 4) 3.74 @ 2.90 Should read 1X eventhough they are 1 down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 Re: Streaking Bet 5 Irish league Donegal Celtic v Linfield (Won last 4) 3.74 @ 2.90 Donegal v Lingfield 1-4 Start Bank 200 Bets 5 Won 1 SR 20% total Bet 29.66 Total Won 13.36 Loss 16.30 New Bank 183.70 ROI -54.95% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leony Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Re: Streaking At the moment I have 30 teams that are on winning streaks between 11 and 3 so they are what I classify as been on winning streaks. Machine gave me a website to find out what was the longest winning run. betexplorer and bari91 are good sites if you want to follow streaks. Just another quick question about your staking strategy. Are flatbetting a team from 3 games and forward until they win or are you chasing? h2hstats is also a good site. You have to register though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 Re: Streaking I have a list and on any day I check the list and the highest ranked team playing I will bet against. When updating last night I noticed that QPR against Man C should have been the game last night and not Linfield but thats life. The bet will be a percentage of bank as in first post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 Re: Streaking Bet 6 Championship Leicester (Won last 4) v Wolves X2 3.67 @ 2.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 Re: Streaking Bet 6 Championship Leicester (Won last 4) v Wolves X2 3.67 @ 2.5 :cry Leicester 2 Wolves 1 Start Bank 200 Bets 6 Won 1 SR 16.6% total Bet 33.33 Total Won 13.36 Loss 19.97 New Bank 180.03 ROI -59.91% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 Re: Streaking Bet 7 France Ligue 2 Caen v Nimes (Won last 4) 1X 7.20 @ 1.14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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