Jumps Racing - 16/01/2013

[Blazing Bailey]

Newbury 2.25 - 3mile Handicap Chase (C3) Im not sure who I am going for yet in this one as Im hoping that writing up my shortlist will help! Mountainous won a decent beginners chase LTO where the form looks pretty solid. He jumped better than he had done before and has the potential to improve. I think there will be scope off this mark but Newbury will be a good test of his jumping and I wonder if it might find him out in this competitive race. Monkerty Tonkerty demolished Bradley a few starts back in a hunter which is obviously pretty decent form. He won nicely LTO but only 3 of the 5 finished and had the 2nd place jumped the last better he would have given MT a closer race. The form between those two runs doesnt look great and there isnt any obvious excuse. Richard's Sundance is always a horse I am wary of because he is solid for the grade and he will pop up here and there, such as his win at Exeter recently. The form of that win is OK but I think more will be needed to win this. Thanks For Coming is a horse that I am convinced is well handicapped based on 3 chase starts to date (form LTO is especially strong). However, Im not sure he wants this trip especially on this ground and the booking of an inexperienced claimer doesnt do anything to help either. I will be keeping my eye on him for a different day though. Loch Ba is another that catches my eye. He has improved a lot in his 2 runs this season, destroying modest opposition at Kempton before running really well at Ascot. The winner was in good form at that stage and this horse also made an error at the last before rallying and almost getting up. I think there is scope off this mark and these conditions will suit. Barlow has a chance based on the form of his run behind Godsmejudge but the yard arent firing and I will pass on this occasion. Ringa Bay won nicely LTO but didnt beat anything of note that would trouble horses in this class. Same can be said of his previous 3rd as well. Iona Days split in form rivals rated in the mid 120's LTO at Kempton and that form has also been boosted by the 5th winning at the weekend. The horses general form suggests that he may struggle to win off this mark but at 25-1 he could be a place alternative. Goring One took my eye at the weekend with an entry at Kempton where I thought the trip was too short, however this trip should be spot on. The form of his previous win has worked out well (2nd won a C3 Hcap at Cheltenham off 119 and had previous form) as well as the form of his run behind Pete The Feat (7L behind eased winner who is now rated 130's+). The form isnt completely solid as it could well be flattering but I think I am willing to take a chance at the prices considering the trip and ground will suit. After all that, I fancy one of Goring One (16/1 William Hill) and Loch Ba (7/1 Bet365) to win and wouldn't be surprised to see Iona Days in the frame.

[Primevil]

Re: Jumps Racing - 16/01/2013 1.20 - Newbury - James De Vassey @ 14/1 PP boyle Bet365 BOG 2points each way 1/4 odds If it was a hurdle race what price? And we knew he was 100% fit.? odds on, without a doubt. But it is not, its a novice chase, his first run for 9 months..and thats why we are getting the price, from a trainer who can get 1 ready, I feel i have to take a chance with this top quality hurdler. Yes he has had problems with injuries, and that is it really, if they have him close to his best and be able to finish off his race, he will chew this lot up. Fingers crossed.